Supras hold below our resistance levels; Panamaxes surge further. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 20 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Week 20 was lacklustre for the Handysize Index, although positive in motion, fixing up at 385 on a 4-point range.

The RSI tailed off in its climb, reaching a somewhat peakish area for the Handies at 68.34, but not too high just yet. The MACD continued to parallel its signal line, still cruising just within bullish territory.

The gradual flattening of the Handies’ downtrend may be giving us some close upside resistance in the lower 400s, but as we mentioned in Week 15 a slowing downswing might come up positive. Hopefully Week 20’s slight upward action isn’t too little too late. It remains to be seen if the small amount of positive motion is the start of something bigger.


SUPRAMAX

For Week 20 the Supramax Index barely moved, holding in a tiny 4-point range to close down on the week at 780. Our 775 – 875 resistance ideas have gained some credibility in the last month as the Supras failed to muster any upward momentum.

The RSI rose slightly to 77.69, giving a peakish outlook to the chart, and the lagging MACD kept parallel with its signal line, still slightly bullish.

With support possibly building around the 700 level, the Supramaxes appear backed into a corner as the chart steadily winds up. A sense of hurry-up-and-wait seems to pervade the index as we watch our targets around 850 – 900 on the upside and 600 – 650 to the downside. The slight peakish look has us biased to the downside, but for now the Supras give a sense of balance.


PANAMAX

The Panamax Index lifted out of the doldrums a little in Week 20 to fix at 1255, up from a 1211 open.

The peakish look to our RSI increased slightly as it reached 93.38, causing suspicion of a Panamax flash in the pan while the MACD sprang upward in its so-far bullish path.

In its reach for our 1350 – 1400 upside target the index may have the momentum to get there, although the peaky look in our spread of indicators appears to be strengthening. Also following the Week 20 move, there may be strength building around our 975 – 1000 support ideas from Week 17.


CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index gave us a gap up in Week 20, rising from a 1405 open to fix at 1463, building on our old 1000 -1200 resistance / consolidation zone as support.

Our RSI number reached 63.29, slightly peakish country for the Capes. The MACD, still heavily negative, climbed above its signal-line crossing in bullish fashion.

Our next upside target for the Capes is around 1800 – 2000, with possible support strengthening in the 1000 – 1200 zone. The peakish look of our indicators and the slight momentum loss in Week 20 are to be watched, however the index has no shortage of capacity to embarrass forecasters. The present market fundamentals will likely be nipping at our heels for some time.


Dirty Tankers pull back; Clean Tankers firming up? Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 20 commentary.

by Dave Walker


CLEAN TANKERS

A 512 fix finished a tight range for the Week 20 Clean Tanker Index, building on our previous consolidation/support thoughts. Skimming a 504 low mid-week however, the index continued to test our mid-to-low 500s support zone.

The RSI rose slightly to 37.61, still diverging from the general downtrend and hinting at possible index strength. The MACD pushed further into negative values, stretching the index bungee-cord and showing little sign of flattening out yet.

With the slight consolidation signs over the past two weeks, the index may be firming up on these lows. Some upside resistance building just above current levels is possible though, if the index continues loitering at these values. Our previous upside target around 625 – 650 may still be ambitious, so we’re keeping a sideways eye on the 400 – 450 range should present support give way.


DIRTY TANKERS

The Dirty Tanker Index fell in Week 20, fixing down at 678 and taking a bite out of previous gains. In line with our 675 – 700 resistance thoughts from Week 15, the index fell away through the rest of the week.

The RSI just reached 33.70 as the MACD also weakened on its path to a bullish signal-line crossing, both indicators still rising but only just.

The Week 20 pullback makes us glance towards our Week 12 support ideas in the mid-500s again, although the overall look of the index and our indicators may hint at some further strength. Another attempt at our 675 – 700 upside resistance zone would be welcome.

$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF: Week 20 commentary.

by Dave Walker

$BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


Week 20 saw $BDRY retreat slightly, in line with our $12 – $14 resistance ideas, to close at $11.84, down from a $12.41 open.

Our RSI took an interesting streak upwards to 55.04 while the MACD approached positive values, although weakening a little from the Week 19 retreat. The continued charge of the RSI could suggest some building strength, but the overall feel hints at possible consolidation as momentum fades.

It remains to be seen if $BDRY is taking a rest or will move on to greater things. A quick glance at the weekly Baltic Capesize Index below (50% BDRY weighting) shows a slight loss of momentum, although within a generally positive Week 20.

Downside support may still be in the $9.00 range for $BDRY, with unconfirmed support possibly building around current levels. Volatility in dry bulk shipping indices being a fact of life (there, we’ve given a nod to
those nasty fundamentals again), we can always cast a hopeful eye at the iron ore price and China’s lowered port stockpiles.


Week 20 Baltic Capesize Shipping Index:


Week 20 Baltic Panamax Shipping Index:


Dirty Tankers wake up; Clean Tankers at 2019 low. Baltic Tanker Indices – Week 19 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

Week 19 saw the Clean Tanker Index on the verge of previous seasonal lows, fixing at 516. Not straying far from its 514 open, the week’s high was 523. Giving a nod to our January 2019 support thoughts around the mid-to-low 500s, the index paused even as it reached a new low for 2019.

Ignoring any subtle hints, the lagging MACD followed the previous week’s dive and reached 2018-like negative values. The hint may be the RSI which diverged from the downswing to close above bottoming levels at 35.94. We spoke of RSI divergence before the recent 40-odd point drop, and note the similar patterns through the mid-2018 lows.

For now the Clean Tankers seem determined to test the low-500s for support, although Week 19’s action may suggest some minor consolidation. Should the Week 19 gap-down and the tighter range prove to be decent support, our upside resistance target would once again be our 625 – 650 zone from Week 17.


DIRTY TANKERS

Gapping up to open Week 19, the Dirty Tanker Index pushed strongly into our 675 – 700 resistance ideas and released some of the energy pent up in the strong bottoming indications. Our comments for the previous week included the phrase “energy to overcome the inertia”, which now appears to have kicked in.

Rising just over bottoming territory, the RSI reached 31.19 while the MACD turned more solidly towards its signal line and bullishness.

Overall, the Dirty Tankers may be gaining enough momentum from Week 19’s move to push through this zone. This could put our 900 target from Week 16 on the radar. Of course, while the index up-surge may be technically overdue, we wait to see if Week 15’s 675 – 700 resistance thoughts assert themselves.

Capes make a run at our resistance zone. Baltic Dry Indices – Week 19 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

For the whole of Week 19 the Handysize Index sat at 382, flattening out an already weak downtrend. The index uncertainty continued
In this state of limbo, midway between our upper 400s and lower 300s resistance/support thoughts.

The RSI strongly continued its divergence, rising to 62.82 and closing on peakish territory, causing some concern. The MACD continued to hover close to the signal line, barely staying on the bullish side.

The rising RSI and weakening downtrend in the Handies may hint at a boost in fortunes. However, should the RSI push much higher with no index movement, more weakness could take over.


SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index stayed relatively range-bound in Week 19, retracing the steps of the previous two weeks and fixing at 779. Skirting the edge of our 775 – 875 resistance ideas (that have so far played a major part in 2019) the index seemed reluctant to push upwards in any strong fashion.

The RSI , climbing to a rather high 73.74 was some cause for concern. Its recent divergence with no index motion approached peakish levels. The MACD kept its distance from the signal line, staying just on the bullish side with the recent index to-and-fro.

As the Supras bounce along the edge of our 775 – 875 resistance zone, the overall feel is of weakness as the RSI climbs into peakish territory. A gradual increase in strength might ease the peakish look and give us a consolidation zone, but so far the Supramaxes are dragging their heels.


PANAMAX

The Panamax Index registered a slight climb in Week 19 to fix at 1198. In the weakening uptrend, the index range stayed within a fairly narrow 10 points.

The RSI reached 92.99, extremely peakish in Panamax-land. The MACD, buoyed by the small index up-ticks, stayed on its bullish but lagging course.

Once more our eyes are on possible support/attraction around our 975 – 1000 zone as the Panamax uptrend weakens. As we eye upside targets in the 1350 – 1400 area, the peakish tendencies in the RSI have us concerned.


CAPESIZE

For Week 19 the Capesize Index forged ahead, making a push through our 1000 – 1200 resistance ideas from Week 14 after the previous week’s rest around that area.

The RSI reached up to 56.72 and the threshold of peakishness for the Capes. The MACD maintained its bullish signal-line crossing, leaning slightly off course with the slight index consolidation.

For now, we wait to see if the Capes have the momentum to build on that 1000 – 1200 area as support. As we polish our crystal ball, we have possible targets in the 2500 – 3000 range, but these seem far off in the present Capesize atmosphere. There may be some attraction to the 1000 -1200 zone yet, keeping the recent gloomy lows in mind.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF – Week 19 commentary.

by Dave Walker


$BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


A second weekly close at 12.25 close marked Week 19 for $BDRY, and the price action added some weight to our resistance thoughts in the $12 – $14 zone. While reprising Week 18’s gap-up and gains, the overall action for Week 19 was positive.

The RSI rose slightly above neutral to 46.79 with the week’s upward motion. This also kept the bullish MACD approaching positive values, both indicators seemingly trying for further strength.

Now that we’ve seen some minor consolidation at these levels, further attempts at cracking the $12 – $14 barrier may be possible. So far $BDRY hasn’t built enough clout to do so, but shipping index volatility may work in this ETF’s favour. As before however, our $9.00 support ideas still feel too close for comfort.


Week 19 Baltic Panamax Shipping Index:


Week 19 Baltic Capesize Shipping Index:


Disclaimer: Superior Maritime holds no stock in BDRY.

Capes pause, Panamaxes sit tight. Baltic Dry Indices – Week 18 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Continuing its slow fade in Week 18, the Handysize Index wandered through a tight 4-point range to fix at 382. In a slowing downtrend the Handies displayed some uncertainty as the index weakened.

The RSI continued to diverge, gaining to 48.20 and possibly hinting at weaker bearishness. As before the MACD tracked horizontally, staying just above its signal line and resisting a bearish line-crossing. However, the general index weakness may overcome the indicators regardless.

Back in Week 15 we discussed the Handies’ retreat from our upper-400s resistance and a slowing downtrend above our lower-300s support target. We’re still watching the lower 300s for potential support should the weakness grow stronger, but keeping an eye on the diverging RSI just in case.


SUPRAMAX

Retreating slightly from the previous two weeks’ climbing, the Week 18 Supramax Index declined steadily to a 752 fix. Shading most of the previous week’s gains, our 775 – 875 resistance zone from Week 7 and Week 13 appears to have flexed its muscle once more.

The RSI climbed further to 61.11, flirting with peakish levels for the Supras. The MACD wavered a little, easing its upward slope as the index weakened.

It remains to be seen if our Week 17 low-700s support ideas will have any strength, and if the index attempts another push into the 775 – 875 region. As weakness returns and the RSI approaches peakish territory, we’re watching that area with interest.


PANAMAX

Staying in a tight 3-point range the Week 18 Panamax Index barely registered on the chart, fixing up a single point on the week at 1190. Our thoughts of support and/or attraction around 975 – 1000 may be coming to bear as the index momentum slows again.

The RSI approached peaky ground for the Panamaxes, settling at 73.97. Whether the tight range and high RSI indicate a loss of momentum in the index remains to be seen. The lagging MACD stayed blindly bullish in its course with no hint of weakness yet.

The slight fizzle in the Panamaxes has us watching our 975 – 1000 support ideas once more. A less steep climb could create a less peakish RSI, however the overall feel seems to lean towards index weakness. Another small consolidation step to maintain index strength would be a welcome sight.


CAPESIZE

A gap up at the open marked the continued surge in the Capesize Index for Week 18, fixing up overall at 1290 after falling from a 1420 high. The index solidly entered our
Week 14 resistance target of 1000 – 1200 but then pulled back just in time to lend our ideas some credibility.

The RSI rose into its neutral zone at 43.31, while the still-negative MACD reinforced its bullish signal-line crossing with the index move.

Our 1000 – 1200 resistance thoughts from Week 14 are visible as a sizable blip on the chart, so this loss of momentum came late in the week and may still hold some sway. Some consolidation for the index to build on would be a good thing, but should weakness set in harder the recent heavy lows are too close for comfort.


Clean Tankers’ light extinguished. Baltic Tanker Indices – Week 18 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

Week 18’s Clean Tanker Index extinguished the faint hope seen over past weeks and steadily declined to a 536 fix, down 45 points on the week. Thumbing its nose at our thoughts of possible recovery, the messy candlestick formation was just that – messy.

The RSI divergence that gave previous hope and seemed to hold the index faded, falling below neutral to 35.71. In turn the MACD resumed its bearish course, reflecting the loss of index strength.

Our 625 – 650 resistance ideas proved too high, with the index turning down in the upper 500s. With the latest move our attention is again on our mid-500s target from Week 15. Some support may develop at or below that zone, at values the Clean Tanker Index held through mid-2018.


DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 18 the Dirty Tanker Index echoed the range seen in the previous week. Fixing up a few points at 645, the index continued to hover just below our 675 – 700 resistance thoughts.

The RSI stayed relatively flat at 18.65, still maintaining a strong bottoming stance. Very slowly closing on the signal line, the MACD also mimicked the sideways travel as the index flattened out.

Well above our Week 12 mid-500s support and holding below our 675 – 700 resistance zone, the Dirty Tankers stayed relatively inert. Some bias to the upside would be welcome, but energy to overcome the inertia hasn’t been seen so far.


$BDRY : Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF – Week 18 commentary

by Dave Walker

Why add Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF to our Baltic Dry Index commentaries? Well, we’d like to dig deeper into shipping through this ETF tied to dry bulk freight futures. At just over a year since its inception, the fund focuses on the nearest quarter in dry bulk forward freight agreements. Will our observation of BDRY offer some noise-free insights amid the flood of information out there? Please join us as we explore*.


$BDRY profile: ” The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight. ” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%


The Breakwave ETF continued on its recent recovery march to close Week 18 at 12.25. As the Baltic Capesize Index was striking lows below 100 in Week 14, BDRY had seen support just above the $9.00 area since early March.

At 37.90 the RSI approached neutral ground, having steadily climbed from heavily bottoming territory in recent weeks. The MACD followed on bullishly after a solid crossing of the signal line a couple of weeks ago.

After careful shuffling of our Tarot cards and casting of chicken-bones, BDRY may be pushing into our upside resistance target of $12 – $14. This region served as wavering support through late 2018 until weakness took over in early 2019.
The Week 18 move in this latest recovery attempt gapped up at the open but showed little progress thereafter, hinting at possible slower momentum. Should BDRY push further through these $12 – $14 resistance thoughts we may still see some consolidation around this zone.

As mentioned above BDRY has a 50% weighting towards the Capesize FFAs, and the Baltic Capesize Index itself has seen recent fragility. Even as that index surges (Week 18 Capesize & Panamax charts below), we’ll keep a jaundiced eye on that previous $9.00 support in BDRY.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY