Baltic Dry indices – Week 37 technical commentary

HANDYSIZE:

The Handysize index seems to have been infected a little by the good
fortune seen in the Supra index. Do we maybe have an uptrend boosted by some seasonal trade?

At 536, it has pushed through our previously mentioned 490 – 525 target area.The support around 465 is still there, but maybe we could raise that a little to the 485-500 region given the recent exuberance. The MACD has crossed into bullish territory, but the RSI causes some concern as it streaks up into the 80s.

Some consolidation would be nice to see somewhere above the 500-510 region.

SUPRAMAX:

In Week 37, the Supra index blew comfortably through our 925 target zone and is now poking around levels not seen since Aug/Sep 2014.

Our next target is in the lofty heights of 1000 – 1050, but our RSI is now into its own “peaky” territory. As with Week 36, the MACD is a bit iffy in this region.

Like the Handysize Index, some consolidation would also be welcomed, in this case around the 850 – 880 zone.

PANAMAX:

The hop upwards seen in the Panamax Index shows similar behaviour to that seen previously. If the index runs true to the recent form we’ve seen, some support-building could come soon.

We mentioned our reservations about this index before, but should its steady progress continue, the 1475 region could become a consolidation target. For now, the 1100 average provides a foundation while the MACD continues on the bullish side. We were hoping for some consistency above 1200, although keeping an eye on the RSI is worthwhile as it approaches its upper range.

The RSI has been in the 90s before, and peakishness may be anywhere in the 80 – 95 area. Week 36’s level of 74.38 may indicate some more upside, and the steady march of the Panamaxes could test the next step up.

CAPESIZE:

An optimistic view of the Capesize Index (did I just write that?) could be that it’s starting to mimic the Panamaxes by building a little consolidation and/or support after the recent exuberance.

However the RSI, as previously mentioned, is in a possible peakish area within the Capes’ volatile universe. The Capes never seem to spend a lot of time dithering – the index tends to travel up or down, with not a lot of sideways travel. The levels seen at the 2800s (closing Week 36 at 2685) now look like a target zone for us, being reached before any confirmation from our oracles.(Hindsight? Hah!)

We’ve made comments about a fork in the road before, and the Yogi Berra quote moment may be approaching; “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”