Baltic Dry indices, Week 39 technical commentary

HANDYSIZE:

The march of the handysize index continues, unlike its sister indices. Another clear gap up for the Week 39 candlestick chart below gives us a high not seen in almost three years. Will we see some consolidation soon? We hope so.

The MACD, still bullish, is not showing weakness yet although the RSI is still up in the peaking zone at 85.41. There’s a possibility of the index reaching our previous target zone of 635 – 650, but there’s enough space for consolidation between that area and possible support around 520 – 540 as we mentioned for Week 38.

We might soon see if the Handies have more steam or are more likely to follow their related indices. It is now Golden Week in China;
will the holiday pause be the consolidation trigger?

SUPRAMAX:

As we mentioned previously, consolidation is definitely needed in the Supramax index. A little study of the candlestick formation
for the last two weeks gives us the ‘Dark Cloud Cover’, a somewhat ominous hint of a reversal.

What we’re hoping for is that this is a sign of a much-needed consolidation cycle. On Week 39’s down cycle, the RSI has retreated a bit to 77.32, and as before the MACD could be seen in lagging mode.

With our upper target of 1100 and possible support moved up to 875 – 900, there might be some consolidation between these two figures
should the dark clouds not provide too much downward momentum. Once again Golden Week is upon us. We’ll wait with bated breath.

PANAMAX:

The Panamax index took a deeper dive than seen in past down cycles, and knocked on the door of our 1250 support target closing
at 1308 on the week.

Hoping for some consolidatory action, we note the RSI sinking into neutral territory, reaching 56.34, and a “knuckle” showing up in the MACD.

However, given the recent patterns in this index, this is a heavy black mark on previous progress and should be watched with caution. If we see a breakthrough downwards through 1250, we could see the index back in the 1000 – 1100 range relatively quickly.

CAPESIZE:

As seen in the Panamax and Supra indices, we have a ‘dark cloud’ type of candlestick showing in the Capes chart; ominous.

For Week 38 we dared mention a reach into the 3500 – 4000 zone, but that the RSI peakishness might temper things somewhat.
For Week 39, our RSI pulled back with the Index drop to 71.62, and a slight falter is visible in the MACD.

With an upside target/resistance zone around 3250, and possible support in the 1800 – 2000 range, we wait to see how the Capes might consolidate through Golden Week. The Capes being the Capes, naturally, we have to watch for disheartening tumbles off into the 1000 area.