Photo: M. Carlson
For Week 45, the weakness in the Handysize Index continued. Our previous comments on the Weeks 42/43/44 candlestick formation seem to have been borne out a little, with the index taking aim at our possible support level in the 550 – 600 region.
Whether the index continues pulling back from these three-year highs remains to be seen.
The MACD also continued in a weak manner, possibly preparing for a bearish crossing its signal line, but we’re not at that point yet. The RSI stayed level from Week 44, remaining in peakish territory at 78.62.
Coming off three-year highs, the Supramax Index broke through the bottom of the short upward channel
seen over the past couple of months.
Looking back at Week 40, the index took a tentative stab at our 975 -1000 support target, then continued its upward climb.
In Week 45 the Supras took a dive downwards through the same 975 – 1000 zone, closing at 912.
Does this open the door for an excursion down around the 750s perhaps? Perhaps not – we’d like to think there’s some attraction in the 950 – 975 area that would keep the Supras afloat.
However, the MACD had a distinct bearish look, possibly crossing its signal line in the next week or two, if the current trend continues. The RSI tailed off to 59.66, away from the peakish zone, but not quite neutral yet.
Our previous comments about the swings in the Panamax Index held for Week 45, as the index touched into our possible support region in the 1400s.
Should this support zone be penetrated, there may be cause for more bearish sentiment for the Panamaxes, confirming the candlestick formation of Weeks 41/42/43.
While the low 1400s may contain the index, the MACD continues forming a bearish-looking knuckle. It remains to be seen whether this crosses the signal line into bearish territory. The RSI continued just above neutral at 58.69, hinting that some strength may still be within the current trend.
When the Cape Index flies to greater heights, the feeling of Icarus with his new wings always come over us, but since this is a technical commentary we’ll leave the mythology behind…………. stop laughing please – thank you.
Taking a strong pot-shot at our 3250 resistance target in Week 45, the Cape Index broke through to a close at 3360 for the week.
Should this index motion develop into a full-fledged breakout upwards, support could firm up in the 2800 – 3000 zone. If this is just a trip to test the waters, we might see a pullback to previously mentioned 2500 – 2700 territory. As has become our habit with the Capes in the last while, we’re keeping a weather eye on the 2000 area.
The RSI continued in peakish tones for the Capes at 72.62. The MACD took a break from its previous weak appearance and continued onward and upward, although appearing shakier overall through the past couple of months.