The Baltic Exchange’s plans to reshuffle the Baltic Dry Index will be holding our interest in the next while. Not only is there the possibility of a BDI-based ETF (now there’s something to keep an eye on) but also the new index will be missing the Handysize time charter information – whatever will we do?
Adapt, as always; it’s the only way to survive.
For Week 47, the Handysize Index continued to slow its trickle-down pace as it approached our 575 – 600 zone of possible support.
If the slowdown in this index decline continues, we might see an ongoing attraction to that 575 – 600 area if things don’t get too bearish-looking.
The RSI at 75.75 reflects the index motion with a slow decline into the mid-70s; still in the peakish zone, but maybe not so precarious. The MACD continued its slow bending towards bearishness, but there’s still room yet for some leveling off.
Week 47 gave us a welcome break in the month-long plunge of the Supramax Index. In our previous comments, we mentioned that some easing in the downward run could
produce some consolidation around 750 -800.
Closing the week at 914, the Supras may be finding a comfort zone somewhere between our previous 975 – 1000 support and our possible bearish target at 750 – 800. This would put the index close to the lower peaks seen in late 2016 and in Spring 2017.
Swinging ever more wildly over either side of the previous upward channel, the Panamax Index took Week 47 to rest.
Posting a modest gain on a small 20 point range for the week, is this the start of the soft landing we muttered about in
our Week 46 comments?
The RSI becomes ever more neutral as it enters the 40s, and our MACD still shows strong bearishness following the strong downward swing. There may be some attraction back to the 1400 area even though the Panamaxes are showing some weakness at the moment.
Thumbing its nose at our previous commentary, as the Cape Index often does, Week 47 saw another poke upwards to close
the week at 3453.
Keeping our previous support ideas of 2500 – 2700 in mind, we acknowledge there may be some support building around the 2900 – 3000 level.