Baltic Dry Indices: Week 7 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

Through Week 7, the Handysize Index continued to test our lower support ideas in the 525 – 550 zone by finishing off at 515.

A push downwards through the 500 area would likely spell more gloominess for the handies, given our candlestick chart shows yet another gap down for Week 7.

Causes for hope, however, are our RSI and MACD. The MACD almost passed through zero into negative value, and our RSI is still heavily into bottom territory, well below 20.

Are they signifying it’s turn-around time? Well, how those numbers translate in a non-trading index like the Baltics remains to be seen, so we’ll keep a close eye on that 500 level, just in case.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index recovered a little in Week 7, retreating a little from the accelerating drop of previous weeks. Our thoughts of support in the 750 – 800 zone received a little positive reinforcement, with the index closing on a high at 837, up from the week’s low at 817 on Feb. 13th.

Maybe thoughts of Cupid on the 14th raised expectations a little out there, and also raised our previous hopes for the brakes being applied in this downturn. Taking a glance at the recent past, RSI and MACD levels similar to those of the last couple of weeks are visible around mid-2017.

Shortly after that we saw the climb to the late 2017 peak.

Of course, the usual past performance disclaimers apply, blah…blah. Keeping it real though, seeing the index continue to test the 800 mark may temper any optimism.

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PANAMAX

In Week 7 the Panamax Index, like the Supras and maybe St. Valentine, showed a little positivity. Pulling back from early-week lows that tested our possible support area around 1250, the index finished off the week at 1273.

One positive candlestick does not a uptrend make, however. The MACD, lagging and bearish, has not yet dropped below zero, and while the RSI continues to dribble downwards it is still in neutral country at 40.01.

The continued flattening of the index may still give some 1250-ish support, and our thoughts for upside resistance aren’t that far away; possibly in the 1350 – 1400 range. However, we’re watching for further downward testing of that 1250 mark.

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CAPESIZE

Showing a steady downhill run for Week 7, nevertheless the Capesize Index stayed more-or-less within the short channel we’ve seen since our thoughts of Week 3, suggesting an upcoming rest. So far, the index is holding above our possible support ideas around 1200 – 1250, still in our “attraction zone” of 1500 – 2000.

However, we’re all aware of the ranges that the Cape Index is capable of. Should the 1200 – 1250 zone be tested heavily, we’re watching our next possible support in the 800 area.
If happiness and prosperity should take over in the upcoming Year of the Dog, upside resistance could be seen in the
2500 – 2700 zone.

The RSI continued as it has recently, staying just below neutral territory at 36.66. The MACD is well into negative numbers, offering a little hint of upturn, but nothing firm yet.

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Until next time, a Happy Lunar New Year to all of you from Superior Maritime. 恭喜發財