Baltic Dry Indices: Week 9 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

In Week 9, the Handysize Index displayed a strong bounce up and away from our downside support ideas around 525 – 550.
Recovering by over 50 points, the index followed an almost-linear progression from open to a close at 586.

Now close to our upside resistance target at 600 – 625, it remains to be seen if Week 9’s strong move has enough momentum to push the index up and through.

The RSI rose to the neutral level at almost 40, and the MACD showed a distinct skew towards bullishness, snagged by the strength of the up-move. This type of MACD skew has hinted at directional changes in the past, but it does lag somewhat.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index took a gap up for a welcome 85-point run-up in Week 9, closing at 1004. With our upside resistance thoughts around the 975 – 1000 region, the Supras could be ripe for a rest and some consolidation in the next while.

Hopefully though, the strength of Week 9’s move may give enough momentum to push through this 975 – 1000 region and confirm it as support instead. The RSI at 67.53 bears careful watching as it closes on its upper limits for the Supras. Some settling of this indicator would help to build a base for further upward movement.

Should Week 9’s exuberance continue, we could see the now-positive MACD crossing the signal line to the bullish side soon. However, we’re hoping for some more sedate action to consolidate and avoid over-heating the index.

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PANAMAX

By contrast to the smaller sisters, the Panamax Index registered barely a blip on the chart for Week 9, showing a 13-point range compared to Week 8’s impressive surge.

We had mentioned the possibility of our 1350 – 1400 resistance re-asserting itself after the bold upturn in Week 8, and Week 9’s action may hint at that.

The RSI climbed to 57.70, getting closer to its upper range while the MACD maintained its bullish turn towards the signal line. Having poked up through our resistance zone, Week 9’s candlestick hints at a possible attempt to retrace some of Week 8’s range – caution is in the cards. Hopefully, that 1350 – 1400 range becomes a zone of attraction for the Panamaxes now that it has regained a little strength.

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CAPESIZE

Falling from the start of Week 9, the Capesize Index put on a small recovery to close down on the week at 1592.

With a weekly range that has been slowly tightening (Most notably since Week 7), the hints at some type of break away from the recent horizontal motion are building.

The MACD, heavily into negative numbers, continued on a slightly eased downward path, just starting to lean towards the signal line. The RSI, riffling neutrally along in the mid-30s, gave no hints. It wouldn’t take much for the Capes to re-visit 2017 lows before recovering, but any break to the upside would lend credibility to our 2500 – 2700 resistance target.