Baltic Dry Indices: Week 10 technical commentary.


Week 10 was another positive upswing for the Handysize Index, gapping up from Week 9 and steadily rising to a 611 close. Now into our 600 – 625 upside resistance zone, it remains to be seen what strength this run-up contains. So far, the turn-around thoughts we expressed in Week 7’s comments have borne out.

The RSI rose just above neutral to 48.07, and the MACD continued being dragged upwards by the positive index action, both suggesting the up-move may have some steam. Let’s see if it’s enough to push the MACD over its signal line.

If the index takes a rest in our 600 – 625 zone, we could see some support developing somewhere in the 575 – 600 area. That region was mentioned in our Week 3 commentary, but in the midst of a down-swing it proved to be weak support back then.



For Week 10 the Supramax Index rose steadily in a linear fashion, gaining 6 to 7 points per day to close the week at 1032. Adding a little extra to Week 9’s climb, hopefully this is the “more sedate action” we referred to in Week 9’s comments.

The Supras have just barely passed through the 975 – 1000 resistance ideas mentioned in our Week 8 commentary, and we might see further index strength.

The RSI sat back down a little to 64.39, and the MACD has crossed its signal line to the bullish side, suggesting some further strength. If the index reaches the 1100 – 1200 area and consolidates somewhat, that could turn our 975 – 1000 zone into support.



As with the Handies and Supras, the Panamax Index showed a near-linear climb for Week 10, closing at 1615. Blowing
our over-cautiousness out of the water, (yes, here in our Week 9 comments) the index used Week 9’s indecision as a ladder rung upwards.

The move also drew the RSI upwards, but not putting it into peakish territory yet. The index action also gave us a just-visible cross-over to the bullish side in the MACD, poking through the chart’s signal line. Our upside resistance target for this move is in the 1675 – 1700 region.

With this freshly-displayed strength in the index, we may see the 1350 -1400 zone become more of a support area. In the recent past this region has been the anchor-point the index swings around, and may still act as a zone of attraction.



In contrast to the other indices, the Capesize Index faded steadily from open till close in Week 10. Overall however, the index stayed within the range seen over the last two months – a bit of a yawner to be sure, depending on your point of view.

As before though, we’re watching the 2500 – 2700 area for upside resistance, and trying not to think about our downside support ideas in the 500s. An interesting point is the RSI, which has broken below 30 a little.

In combination with the heavily negative value of the MACD, a RSI reaching into the 20s or lower may increase pressure for a bullish move. Let’s keep our eye on that.

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