Baltic Dry Indices: Week 15 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

For Week 15 the Handysize Index gave us a gap down and a 10-point fall to close at 628. Being firmly into our
support ideas of 625 – 630, we’re watching this area for some handysize consolidation, hopefully.

The RSI gained, trending opposite to the index to 55.69 but the MACD‘s bullish trend weakened further, going almost flat.

The RSI could be hinting at some building in index values, but should index weakness continue however, it may be worth casting a watchful eye over the 575 – 600 zone for hints of downward breaks.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index took another gap down in its recent decline, although with a markedly smaller 11-point range for Week 15. Closing at 1013, the index approached our thoughts of support in the 975 – 1000 region as it retreated from our 1100 – 1200 upside resistance.

The MACD continued in its leanings downward to the signal line, away from the recent upsurge. The RSI climbed upwards a little to 62.48; not quite peakish, but still to be watched all the same.

The lessened index weakness seen in Week 15 may be a hopeful sign, should the the Supramaxes find their feet and the 975 – 1000 support area shows some strength.

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PANAMAX

In Week 15 the Panamax Index appeared to show some resilience, recovering a little from its recent downtrend and closing up on the week at 1351. Previously we’ve described the 1350 – 1400 area as support, and also as an “attraction zone”.

Whether the Panamaxes retain their bungee cord-like quality around this zone remains to be seen. The RSI came up to 47.91, still fairly neutral, and the MACD continued on the bearish (but now lagging) side of its signal line.

The hints may be weak, but let’s see if the Panamaxes can regain buoyancy and stay in this range we’ve seen since early October 2017. We’ve spoken of an upside resistance around 1675 – 1700 before, but for the moment we’d be happy if the index made it back to the upper end of the 1350 – 1400 zone.

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CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index stopped and looked up from the abyss in Week 15. That is all.

Seriously though, the reasonably steady climb from the 854 open to the 1038 close was definitely a welcome sight. Back in Week 10, we were discussing the 2500 – 2700 zone as possible upside resistance, and that’s still a target; however after this extended downswing for the Capes, there may be some
resistance in the 1500 – 1750 area should this recovery show some legs. On the candlestick chart, you can see this region from Week 4 to Week 10 of 2018.

Back in Week 8‘s comments, we spoke of signs “that may hint at an upcoming move” – the upward direction
would have been nice, n’est ce pas? With the positive motion for Week 15, the RSI went up somewhat to 25.70; still in bottoming territory, and the MACD‘s bearish run showed a definite leveling off.

The upward pressures have been building for a few weeks, but perhaps a more staid recovery is the best to hope for at the moment. That way, anything better will be a pleasant surprise, yes?

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