For Week 16, the Handysize Index showed slightly less weakness than than the previous two weeks, closing just below our support ideas of 625 – 630 at 621. This may be a hint of a run at our downside warning target in the 575 – 600 region, but no serious attempts seen as yet.
The index may be in a slight state of limbo, with the possibility that the 625 – 630 zone may re-assert itself and support the index. The other horn of the possible dilemma is the 575 – 600 zone being more attractive.
The Supramax Index appeared to regain some footing in Week 16, affirming our hopes that this might be the case. The index showed a higher open just above our 975 – 1000 support zone, and a 9-point gain on the week to close at 1025.
The now-lagging MACD continued its very weak bullishness, but flattening out a little with Week 16’s move. The RSI continued in the low 60s, maybe reinforcing some optimism for index strength and easing some fears of peakishness.
The litmus test for the Supramaxes may be a repeat attempt to penetrate our 975 – 1000 support ideas.
For Week 16 the Panamax Index took another run downwards, closing at 1289. As we can see from the charts these lower values have been tapped before in early 2018 and late 2017.
With such a heavy black mark on the chart, its possible our previous 1350 – 1400 “comfort zone” may become resistance to any Panamax recovery. However, previous recoveries from similar lows have done well in supporting the index. The MACD continued its bearishness, though now lagging, with the RSI continuing in more-or-less neutral mode at 47.50.
Our previous thoughts of watching the 1250 region for downward breakthroughs may be coming into play.
The Capesize Index came back with a roar in Week 16 and the upward pressures broke through the dam. In a matter of two weeks the index filled the gap all the way through our resistance ideas in the 1500 – 1750 zone and closed at 1915.
Our 1500 – 1750 region may have just become support – such are the Capes.
If this move has stamina that matches the initial burst of energy, our old resistance target around 2500 – 2700 could come into play…..or perhaps receive no respect at all. As mentioned last week, we have received our pleasant surprise.