Baltic Dry Indices: Week 17 technical commentary

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index ran strongly downhill in Week 17, bringing the index just short of our downside warning target of 575 – 600. Closing down 16 points on the week at 605, this run downwards was hinted at last week, but as usual we had hoped for better.

The RSI stayed on the highside of neutral, but stayed away from peaky territory by retreating to 54.15. The MACD took a stronger bend towards its signal line and bearishness; very close, but no crossing of the line yet.

The coming weeks could tell us if our old 625 – 630 zone will pull the index upwards, or if the 575 – 600 region proves a more powerful attraction.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index showed a 15 point climb in Week 17 and closed at 1042, confirming our hopes from Week 15 and finding some footing.

This robust rebound off our 975 – 1000 support area may have some momentum yet, having shown a tiny gap-up of two points between Week 16’s close and Week 17’s open.

Reinforcing those ideas is a RSI that consolidated somewhat high, but not too peakish, at 62.62. The MACD, while still weakly bullish, took a flat trajectory that shied away from the signal line a little. Hopefully these hints may give some consolidation to this up-move and offer some foundation.

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PANAMAX

For Week 17 the Panamax Index started with a small gap down, recovering a little later in the week to close at 1275.
Perhaps that’s a hint that the index could stay within the widely-swinging channel stretching back to October 2017.

On the chart, that little wick sticking down from Week 17’s candlestick might be a clue. We are still watching our downside warning zone around 1250 for breakthroughs, however.

The RSI continued in the mid-40s, basically neutral. The MACD continued its bearish plunge, although now lagging and into negative values and possibly providing a little upward pressure.

Let us see if that 1250 level shows some signs of supporting the index – that would be a good thing.

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CAPESIZE

For Week 17, the Capesize Index gave us a nice gap up on the open and a run up to a 2251 close. As always with the volatile Capes, the tendency to blow through expectations in either direction is a constant feature. As we previously mentioned, the break through our barely-noticeable 1500 – 1750 resistance area made us think that our old 2500 – 2700 upside resistance might become a factor again.

The MACD, following the surge, crossed to the bullish side of the signal line, and the RSI rose from neutral figures to 60.76. For now, we’re watching for action between 1750 and 2700 that might suggest a consolidation somewhere in that zone.

Another upsurge might give us a RSI in the peaking zone and maybe some push back around that 2500 – 2700 resistance idea. Of course with the Capes, that can mean another 1000-point flash (*gasp*) while the technical analysts, in shock once again, vainly clutch their pearls.