Capes power-dive, Panamaxes weaken further. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 21 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

Week 21 in the Handysize Index was a lack-lustre spell showing little change despite Week 20’s small
white candlestick. A small drop to a close at 587 may be some continued flirting with our 575 – 600 support ideas,
and the index did a fair job of supporting itself for the first few days.

The MACD continued in weak bearish mode, but the RSI continued to diverge upwards, climbing to 66.82, still healthy and perhaps hinting at upward pressure.

If the handies are in the doldrums, all well and good,
but if the 575 – 600 zone proves to have support strength there may be cause for optimism.

———————————————

SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index for Week 21 gave continued hints at slowing momentum despite Week 20’s small surge, as it closed slightly off its 1074 high at 1071.

Just below our 1100 – 1200 upside resistance target from Week 12, the RSI continued in the mid-70s, quite close to peakish territory. The MACD stayed very weakly bullish, flattening out once more but just staying on the bullish side of the signal line.

Overall, the index may be signalling imminent weakness, and also isn’t far from previous peaks in Week 12 and October 2017. We’ll continue to watch for further weakness, but let’s see if the latest upswing consolidates itself.

———————————————

PANAMAX

For Week 21, the Panamax Index poked us in the eye and took a solid dip below our 1250 support thoughts, closing the week
down at 1187.

Breaking below the bottom of the channel we’ve seen over the past few months, the Panamaxes are now around a nine-month low. The RSI offers little comfort, staying close to neutral value, with no hints at upward divergence.

There may still be support potential in this 1150 – 1200 area, and the heavily negative MACD hints at some upward pressure counter-acting the recent weakness, despite its continued plunge. A heavier breakthrough past 1150 may reinforce the gloom, however.

———————————————

CAPESIZE

For Week 21 the Capesize Index gapped down and took another sizable drop to close at 1395, continuing the retreat from our 2500 – 2700 upside resistance zone. Our thoughts of possible support in the 1500 – 1750 zone appeared as a mere blip in the chart mid-week as the Capes charged downwards.

The RSI retreated back towards neutrality at 47.37, while the MACD, still in negative values, took a strong hook down towards the signal line with no hint at upward pressure yet.

Our next support target for the volatile Capes is down around the 600 – 675 zone, although the last power-dive for the Capes pulled out in the low 800s, well above our 500 support thoughts. Let’s see if the same occurs in this latest plunge, and some upward pressure begins to assert itself. It’s possible the Capes don’t have much further to go, but of course don’t quote us on that…

———————————————