Supras and Handies take a break: Capes retreat. Baltic Dry Indices – Week 25 technical commentary.


A fairly flat Week 25 was seen for the Handysize Index, lending continued credence to our ideas of support
from the 575 – 600 level. So far, our thoughts of continued sideways travel are holding water.

The index closed a little down on the week at 593, staying in a tight 2-point range. The RSI dropped below the neutral zone to 35.34 while the MACD flattened out in its weak bearishness.

Perhaps these indicators are hinting of an approaching recovery, but keeping an eye on the 550 level for breaks downward might be wise.



In Week 25 the Supramax Index took a rest from the previous two weeks’ action. Closing just below our 1100 – 1200 upside resistance at 1092, there was a tiny 2-point range for the week. With this fizzling in the previous momentum, it remains to be seen whether there are further excursions over the 1100 mark.

Maybe hinting at a small period of limbo for the index, the RSI continued its descent to reach 50.21 and the MACD stayed relatively flat while still on the weakly bullish side.

We may be looking at potential support building around the 1075 point which might become a factor, but overall there seems to be a general weakening in the Supras.



Week 25 saw a steady decline in the Panamax Index, closing over a hundred points down to close at 1355, and cancelling out a major part of recent gains.

The Panamaxes pulled back to our old Week 12 1350 – 1400 “attraction zone” as quickly as they pushed through it.

The RSI descended below the neutral zone to 36.11 as the MACD was tempered by the fall, flattening out even as it crossed to the bullish side of the signal line.

After the dramatic recovery, is this sudden weakness the index working back into the channelling pattern of previous months?



For Week 25 the Capesize Index retreated, closing the week over 200 points down at 2011. Bearing out our Week 23 thoughts of slowed momentum, the index turned and pointed back to our support ideas in the 1500 – 1700 area. It remains to be seen whether Week 25’s black candlestick begets more of its kind at this point.

Meanwhile, the MACD remained in negative values but flattened out in its bullish climb. Along with a basically healthy RSI at 59.06, perhaps some slight upward pressure still exists.

We’re watching to see if the Capes show some progressive stair-stepping, or if Week 25’s weakness takes hold after this heavy drop.


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