Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 44 Technical Commentary.

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index is showing some hesitancy in its recent climb over the past couple of months. Looking back, the RSI was solidly in bottoming territory around the beginning of July. This preceded a solidly-built uptrend that has now given us its first dark candlestick.

Now the RSI finds itself in traditional peaking territory in the mid-to-high eighties, with the MACD still bullish, but now in lagging mode. Our upside/resistance target in the 700 – 725 zone may be a bit optimistic at this point.

The surge in Week 43 was definitely tempered by Week 44’s action, although there may be some support building in the 600 – 615 region.

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SUPRAMAX

Over the past three weeks, the Supramax Index has retreated sharply from a 1204 high at the beginning of October.
Gapping down for two consecutive weeks, the Supras pushed down through our support thoughts in the 1100 – 1120 region.

The RSI was well into the peaking zone at 95.96 back in Week 41, and the MACD has now given us a confirmed bearish crossing of the signal line.

All this doom and gloom has us glancing fitfully at our

960 – 975 downside support ideas. T’would be nice if the index didn’t dive that far.

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PANAMAX

For Week 44 the Panamax Index gapped down once more, though a far smaller downswing than Week 43, giving confirmation of the momentum fizzle in Week 42.
After a steady summer of swinging and stair-stepping up from an 1149 low, our support ideas around 1600 – 1620
were tested strongly (read “slapped”) down to 1530.

Coming off a peaky (for the Panamaxes) 68.77, the Week 44 RSI pushed into neutral ground at 47.47. The downswing forced the MACD to a near-crossing of its signal line, giving a gloomier outlook than recently seen.

Let’s see if the 1400 – 1450 zone shoulders the Panamaxes’ flagging fortunes. This area may develop support, although that very slight Week 44 recovery might hint at some pull from the 1600s region.

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CAPESIZE

In Week 44, the Capesize Index showed its first dark candlestick after a somewhat tentative climb from September’s 1840 low, tempering the somewhat stronger upswing in Week 43.

Perhaps there’s a little consolidation at play in the Capes. The RSI maintains a neutral position and the MACD still continues to turn towards the upside.

With our downside support ideas in the mid-1400s, the index seemed reluctant to test our upside resistance ideas around 2720 – 2750. A lot of room to swing in? Aye Jim lad, but these be the Capes, fickle beasts that they are…

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