Doom and/or gloom. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 4 commentary.

HANDYSIZE

Week 4 saw more gloominess for the Handysize Index, with yet another gap-down open. The headlong charge ran down
to a horrendous fix of 395, as the index poked a little way through our hopes of some low-400s consolidation.

The single-digit RSI at 6.04 and negatively-valued MACD reached deep into their respective basements however, giving a small ray of hope that some support may materialize.

For feelings of deja-vu refer to our Week 8 – 2018 commentary, although that particular gloomy spell was cured by the post-Golden Week pickup. In this case, we haven’t even reached the Chinese New Year yet. Let’s see if the low 400s levels exert any support influence and shed some light in the gloom.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index looked as equally gloomy as its Handy counterpart in Week 4, also gapping down and fixing abysmally.

The 576 close offered little in the way of developing support, even as the RSI bottomed at 4.76 hand-in-hand with a deeply negative MACD. Nothing in the way of consolidation was seen, as possible support hints in the 700 area were punched through.

As with Week 3 and the low 700s, our possible support thoughts have again been reached as the index taps at the 550 level. Are the indices heading for a repeat of the 2016 carnage? We’re not there yet, but anything in the way of developing support appears bleak for the moment.

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PANAMAX

For Week 4 in the Panamax Index, we saw gloomy repetition of the Supra and Handy collapse as the index fell to a
748 fix on yet another gap-down open.

The RSI value fell into single digits at 8.49, well into bottoming territory. The MACD hit heavily negative values as the index plunged, both indicators pointing to their low points. Of course the index took no notice of such paltry technicalities, giving our 900-925 support ideas short shrift.

By the end of Week 4 the index had already closed on our next downside target in the lower 700s, which gave little hope of any index rests developing. For now, any influence from the 700 zone may be negligible.

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CAPESIZE

In Week 4 the Capesize Index once again stayed just below our low 2000s upside resistance. Showing a dark candlestick
for the week, the index mostly eclipsed Week 3’s range to fix at 1730.

This gave an RSI straying into neutral territory at 44.68 and an MACD that wavered on its signal line, barely slipping over to the bearish side.

Should volatility in the Capes be returning, we’re watching this down-slip for a reach towards 1000-1050, with the mid-1400s as a possible moderating influence. For any upward motion, we’re watching for the low 2000s to re-assert resistance.

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