Positive motion – except for the Capes. Baltic Dry Indices – Week 12 commentary.

by Dave Walker


Fore Week 12 the Handysize Index climbed once more on a small range to fix at 455 as it closed on our Week 8 resistance ideas in the top 400s to 500 zone.

The RSI, still gently rising, reached a relatively low 33.0 as the MACD drew very close to the signal line and possible bullishness should the line be crossed.

As the weekly range shrinks, we’re watching for signs of further strength that may push the index through the upper 400s, but overall the impression is of the index approaching resistance or a consolidation point.


After Week 11’s rest, the Supramax Index took a hop upwards in Week 12 to fix at 826, still within our 775-875 upside resistance thoughts from Week 7.

Alongside the RSI that rose but stayed relatively neutral at 43.68, the MACD crossed solidly to the bullish side of the signal line as the index climbed.

With the index still within our 775-875 resistance range, once again it remains to be seen how much momentum remains with the Supramaxes, and if they have enough left to push any higher.


In Week 12 the Panamax Index snapped out of its dithering mood and rose to a 1027 fix, putting our more pessimistic thoughts to rest for the moment.

The RSI climbed out of bottoming territory to 34.39 and the MACD parked squarely on its signal line, ready to cross the border into bullish country.

The Panamaxes have pushed through our lower 900s resistance ideas from Week 8 and are well into our secondary 975-1000 zone. These levels may become a resistance challenge, but so far the momentum is on the Panamaxes’ side.


For Week 12 the Capesize Index wiped out Week 11’s gains to close at 251, giving an impression over the past three weeks of the proverbial dead cat bounce. A candlestick hound might see a bullish Stick Sandwich, which might be the easy way out given the vicinity of the index to rock-bottom.

The RSI at 19.69 showed bottoming values, but the Capes’ RSI has been in single digits before. The MACD anaemically faded away from the signal line as the index dropped.

Still seemingly held up by our Week 9 support target in the mid-200s, the wait is on to see if a bullish streak is in the cards or if the Capes are doomed to a spell in the basement. With uncertainty that included stormy weather at Australian iron ore ports, the Capes can’t seem to catch a break. All the same we’re watching our 1200-1500 upside target should the sun decide to shine.

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