Capesize force-majeure; Panamaxes surge: Baltic Dry Indices – Week 13 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Week 13’s action in the Handysize Index seemed to fall in line with our Week 12 ideas of slowing index momentum. Fixing at 464, just off the week’s high at 467, the index slowed as it closed on our upper 400s resistance thoughts.

The RSI crept very slightly up to an anaemic 34.73 while the MACD robustly crossed its signal line into bullish territory on the strength of the recent index climb. Whether the MACD is late to the party remains to be seen, as the indicator tends to lag the index motion a good deal.

In general, the slackening momentum suggests our upper 400s region may be asserting itself as resistance. If the Handies manage to push through this area, the watch would be on for new energy in the index….or lack thereof.


SUPRAMAX

For Week 13 the Supramax Index registered a black mark as it revisited the previous week’s range, fixing down at 813. Staying within our 775-875 resistance zone from Week 7 for the moment, the index reached a high early in the week of 833 to leave a slight shadow on the candlestick above the 830 open.

The RSI faded slightly, still neutral at 41.93 while the lagging MACD wavered very slightly after bullishly crossing its signal line in Week 12.

The general impression is of an index running out of steam, as it wanders within that 775-875 area. Let’s continue watching to see if a consolidation or pullback is at work, or if some bullish strength can be regained.


PANAMAX

Gapping up on Week 13’s open the Panamax Index showed another positive move. It rose to fix at 1102, following through despite our misgivings over the Weeks 10 & 11 charts. Our 900-zone resistance thoughts from Week 8 showed a little strength but didn’t confirm our darker thoughts.

The RSI showed a slow but steady climb to an-almost neutral 37.31. A still-negatively valued MACD stayed straight as an arrow in a bullish signal-line crossing.

Now that the Panamaxes have tested the upper reaches of Week 8’s 975-1000 resistance thoughts, some continued strength may be seen while we watch for any resistance assertion around present levels.


CAPESIZE


Thumbing its nose (bow?) at the rates in the face of Australian cyclones, Chinese coal delays and Brazilian iron-ore uncertainty, the Capesize Index sank once again in Week 13 with a basement-region fix at 150. Adding to that dead-cat-bounce feeling, the Capes gapped down to break the lows of the past month.

With the RSI in heavily bottoming territory at 14.27 and a heavily negative, lagging MACD, not much can be gleaned from gazing at chart indicators this close to the index zero-point.

At this point we can only twiddle our thumbs and wait with anticipation as all the weather, coal and iron-ore issues clear. The target we’re watching should the sun
suddenly rise on the Capes is in the 1000-1200 region, but for now we should probably declare force-majeure like everyone else.


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