Capes flicker, other Baltics retreat. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 15 commentary.

by Dave Walker


HANDYSIZE

In Week 15 the Handysize Index continued its retreat from our Week 8 upper-400s resistance ideas. Gapping down on the weekly open, the index fell to fix at 403.

The RSI stayed flattish at 33.72, just outside bottoming values. The MACD weakened and flattened out after its recent crossing to the bullish side of the signal line.

This recent Handysize weakness has us eyeballing the lower 300s level once more, although a slowdown in the downtrend might help in gaining some lost ground.


SUPRAMAX

A tighter range marked the Supramax Index for Week 15, as the index retreated further from our Week 7 775-875 resistance ideas. After a 9-point gap down at open, the downtrend to the 711 Friday fix was more restrained.

Just below neutral ground at 38.97, the RSI stayed flat with the MACD pausing after a bullish signal line crossing.

The weakness in the Supras has us casting glances at the low 400s region again, but perhaps the present downturn doesn’t have the same death-grip as the previous one. Some support in the 550-600 range may start to develop should the latest downswing weaken further.


PANAMAX

The Panamax Index retreated in Week 15, showing some consolidation signs around our Week 8 975-1000 resistance zone. Displaying some weakness, the index fell to fix at 1073, gapping down slightly at its 1101 open.

The RSI rose slightly to a neutral 40.71 as the still-negative MACD strayed slightly from its bullish course.

With some slight signs of peakishness showing, we’re still watching for any strength as the index wavers around our 975-1000 resistance thoughts. Our eyes are also on the 900 region, where the index paused briefly in Weeks 10 & 11. A welcome sign would be some consolidation building in these areas.


CAPESIZE

Amidst the gloom of industry fundamentals, the Capesize Index gave us another ray of sunshine in Week 15, gapping up and rising to a 418 fix.

The RSI also struggled out of the mud, rising to a still-bottomish 22.03 while the MACD crept up on its signal line and a possibly bullish crossing.

More upward pressure and a reach for our 1000-1200 resistance target are still a possibility. Do the Capes have the strength to make any significant rise from the depths and attempt a breakthrough? The next few weeks may tell a tale or two.


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