Capes pause, Panamaxes sit tight. Baltic Dry Indices – Week 18 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Continuing its slow fade in Week 18, the Handysize Index wandered through a tight 4-point range to fix at 382. In a slowing downtrend the Handies displayed some uncertainty as the index weakened.

The RSI continued to diverge, gaining to 48.20 and possibly hinting at weaker bearishness. As before the MACD tracked horizontally, staying just above its signal line and resisting a bearish line-crossing. However, the general index weakness may overcome the indicators regardless.

Back in Week 15 we discussed the Handies’ retreat from our upper-400s resistance and a slowing downtrend above our lower-300s support target. We’re still watching the lower 300s for potential support should the weakness grow stronger, but keeping an eye on the diverging RSI just in case.


SUPRAMAX

Retreating slightly from the previous two weeks’ climbing, the Week 18 Supramax Index declined steadily to a 752 fix. Shading most of the previous week’s gains, our 775 – 875 resistance zone from Week 7 and Week 13 appears to have flexed its muscle once more.

The RSI climbed further to 61.11, flirting with peakish levels for the Supras. The MACD wavered a little, easing its upward slope as the index weakened.

It remains to be seen if our Week 17 low-700s support ideas will have any strength, and if the index attempts another push into the 775 – 875 region. As weakness returns and the RSI approaches peakish territory, we’re watching that area with interest.


PANAMAX

Staying in a tight 3-point range the Week 18 Panamax Index barely registered on the chart, fixing up a single point on the week at 1190. Our thoughts of support and/or attraction around 975 – 1000 may be coming to bear as the index momentum slows again.

The RSI approached peaky ground for the Panamaxes, settling at 73.97. Whether the tight range and high RSI indicate a loss of momentum in the index remains to be seen. The lagging MACD stayed blindly bullish in its course with no hint of weakness yet.

The slight fizzle in the Panamaxes has us watching our 975 – 1000 support ideas once more. A less steep climb could create a less peakish RSI, however the overall feel seems to lean towards index weakness. Another small consolidation step to maintain index strength would be a welcome sight.


CAPESIZE

A gap up at the open marked the continued surge in the Capesize Index for Week 18, fixing up overall at 1290 after falling from a 1420 high. The index solidly entered our
Week 14 resistance target of 1000 – 1200 but then pulled back just in time to lend our ideas some credibility.

The RSI rose into its neutral zone at 43.31, while the still-negative MACD reinforced its bullish signal-line crossing with the index move.

Our 1000 – 1200 resistance thoughts from Week 14 are visible as a sizable blip on the chart, so this loss of momentum came late in the week and may still hold some sway. Some consolidation for the index to build on would be a good thing, but should weakness set in harder the recent heavy lows are too close for comfort.


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