by Dave Walker
For the whole of Week 19 the Handysize Index sat at 382, flattening out an already weak downtrend. The index uncertainty continued
In this state of limbo, midway between our upper 400s and lower 300s resistance/support thoughts.
The RSI strongly continued its divergence, rising to 62.82 and closing on peakish territory, causing some concern. The MACD continued to hover close to the signal line, barely staying on the bullish side.
The rising RSI and weakening downtrend in the Handies may hint at a boost in fortunes. However, should the RSI push much higher with no index movement, more weakness could take over.
The Supramax Index stayed relatively range-bound in Week 19, retracing the steps of the previous two weeks and fixing at 779. Skirting the edge of our 775 – 875 resistance ideas (that have so far played a major part in 2019) the index seemed reluctant to push upwards in any strong fashion.
The RSI , climbing to a rather high 73.74 was some cause for concern. Its recent divergence with no index motion approached peakish levels. The MACD kept its distance from the signal line, staying just on the bullish side with the recent index to-and-fro.
As the Supras bounce along the edge of our 775 – 875 resistance zone, the overall feel is of weakness as the RSI climbs into peakish territory. A gradual increase in strength might ease the peakish look and give us a consolidation zone, but so far the Supramaxes are dragging their heels.
The Panamax Index registered a slight climb in Week 19 to fix at 1198. In the weakening uptrend, the index range stayed within a fairly narrow 10 points.
Once more our eyes are on possible support/attraction around our 975 – 1000 zone as the Panamax uptrend weakens. As we eye upside targets in the 1350 – 1400 area, the peakish tendencies in the RSI have us concerned.
For Week 19 the Capesize Index forged ahead, making a push through our 1000 – 1200 resistance ideas from Week 14 after the previous week’s rest around that area.
For now, we wait to see if the Capes have the momentum to build on that 1000 – 1200 area as support. As we polish our crystal ball, we have possible targets in the 2500 – 3000 range, but these seem far off in the present Capesize atmosphere. There may be some attraction to the 1000 -1200 zone yet, keeping the recent gloomy lows in mind.