Supras hold below our resistance levels; Panamaxes surge further. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 20 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Week 20 was lacklustre for the Handysize Index, although positive in motion, fixing up at 385 on a 4-point range.

The RSI tailed off in its climb, reaching a somewhat peakish area for the Handies at 68.34, but not too high just yet. The MACD continued to parallel its signal line, still cruising just within bullish territory.

The gradual flattening of the Handies’ downtrend may be giving us some close upside resistance in the lower 400s, but as we mentioned in Week 15 a slowing downswing might come up positive. Hopefully Week 20’s slight upward action isn’t too little too late. It remains to be seen if the small amount of positive motion is the start of something bigger.


SUPRAMAX

For Week 20 the Supramax Index barely moved, holding in a tiny 4-point range to close down on the week at 780. Our 775 – 875 resistance ideas have gained some credibility in the last month as the Supras failed to muster any upward momentum.

The RSI rose slightly to 77.69, giving a peakish outlook to the chart, and the lagging MACD kept parallel with its signal line, still slightly bullish.

With support possibly building around the 700 level, the Supramaxes appear backed into a corner as the chart steadily winds up. A sense of hurry-up-and-wait seems to pervade the index as we watch our targets around 850 – 900 on the upside and 600 – 650 to the downside. The slight peakish look has us biased to the downside, but for now the Supras give a sense of balance.


PANAMAX

The Panamax Index lifted out of the doldrums a little in Week 20 to fix at 1255, up from a 1211 open.

The peakish look to our RSI increased slightly as it reached 93.38, causing suspicion of a Panamax flash in the pan while the MACD sprang upward in its so-far bullish path.

In its reach for our 1350 – 1400 upside target the index may have the momentum to get there, although the peaky look in our spread of indicators appears to be strengthening. Also following the Week 20 move, there may be strength building around our 975 – 1000 support ideas from Week 17.


CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index gave us a gap up in Week 20, rising from a 1405 open to fix at 1463, building on our old 1000 -1200 resistance / consolidation zone as support.

Our RSI number reached 63.29, slightly peakish country for the Capes. The MACD, still heavily negative, climbed above its signal-line crossing in bullish fashion.

Our next upside target for the Capes is around 1800 – 2000, with possible support strengthening in the 1000 – 1200 zone. The peakish look of our indicators and the slight momentum loss in Week 20 are to be watched, however the index has no shortage of capacity to embarrass forecasters. The present market fundamentals will likely be nipping at our heels for some time.