Supras retreat from our resistance zone: Pmax & Capes peaky? Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 22 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Another small gain marked the Handysize Index for Week 22 with a fix at 398, up 4 points. Cautiously feeling its way, the index reached the threshold of our lower-400s resistance ideas from Week 20.

Our RSI pulled back to 59.61 as the MACD rose away from its side-by-side cruising with the signal-line, both indicators possibly hinting at a little index stamina.

We’re looking for signs of our previous support ideas just below present index levels, but as the Handies gain our low-400s resistance thoughts from Week 20 are also on the radar.


SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index retreated from our 775 – 875 resistance zone (from back in Week 7) and dropped 20 points in Week 22 to a 752 Friday fix.

Our RSI retreated to 55.70 while the MACD strayed slightly off its bullish course towards the signal-line. If this Supra retreat is contained, these indicators could show some index resilience.

Our previous thoughts of support in the 700 – 725 range could be tested, but in such a narrow channel another crack at our 775 – 875 resistance is always in the cards.


PANAMAX

Reaching for our 1350 – 1400 upside/resistance target, the Panamax Index reached 1340 before settling to Week 22’s fix at 1335.

Our still-peaky RSI was little changed at 93.27, reinforcing our slowing momentum thoughts. A now-positive MACD charged bullishly onward, perhaps lagging too far to be relevant

For now our resistance target appears to be in reach, but the slowed index momentum is noticeable. It’s hard for us to ignore the signs of peakishness in the Panamaxes. However, as previously mentioned, our 1350 – 1400 target may become a consolidation zone rather than hard resistance.


CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index rose to a 1620 fix for Week 22, but not before touching a high of 1659 mid-week. This left us a small upper wick on Week 22’s candlestick, hinting at possible momentum loss.

Our RSI pushed further into peaky territory for the Capes, reaching 72.07. The MACD continued bullishly, pulling away from the signal line with the recent index momentum.

With our 1800 – 2000 resistance target from Week 20 in sight and some of our indicators looking a little peaky, the head-scratching begins ( well, maybe more intense head-scratching). With possible shrinking momentum, do the Capes have the strength to treat this zone as a consolidation step and move on? (Note our 1000 – 1200 target from Week 19’s commentary ) On the other hand, are the Capes looking to pull back? The plot thickens…

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