Dry bulk numbers climb….with warning signs? Baltic Dry Indices: Week 29 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Taking another surge for Week 29, the Handysize Index rose 20 points to a 492 fix. Taking a cue from the other dry bulk indices, the Handies pushed through our 450 – 475 resistance ideas from Week 21.

Reaching hard into peakish territory (Yes, we’re repeating ourselves…), our RSI touched 93.22. The MACD closed on its zero point, both indicators giving some weight to our thoughts of returning index stamina.

Whether there’s been a little index over-reach and our 450 – 475 zone turns into support is up for discussion, but the Handies spent the week climbing without a pause. We could look back at Week 26’s chart and note a slight nod to consolidation. Have the Handies found their footing and a stepping-stone? Stay tuned.


SUPRAMAX

Week 29 gave the Supramax index the largest surge since early 2019. With a near-100 point run to its 982 fix, the index never paused around our old 775 – 875 resistance for a rest.

At the risk of repeating ourselves (too late you say?…), our RSI tapped 79.78 in its excursion through peak values, and the MACD journeyed further into the positive to reach 6.66. (Don’t read anything into that number…) An overall topping view is creeping into our thoughts, but positive dry bulk sentiment could carry the day.

With all the peakish signs despite the sentiment, even grumpy old observers like us have a tentative 1100 target for the index. It’s possible our long-standing 775 – 875 resistance band may become support as the Supras continue climbing.


PANAMAX

For Week 29 the Panamax index broke highs not seen since late 2013 and pushed into values not seen in almost 10 years. The 2170 fix came after a gap up at the open and steady rise through the week to close on our 2300 target.

Is our RSI showing peaky signs? Many of our comments repeat those thoughts, but there it is at 84.83 with the lagging MACD in full runaway bull mode.

After the previous pause and slight nod to our Week 27 1700 – 1750 target, there may be support building in that same zone. Our tentative upside resistance target in the 2300 region could see some testing..


CAPESIZE

A gap up and fix at 4379 marked Week 29 for the Capesize index, with a near-1800 point surge early in the week being tempered by a slower rise to the fix.

Our RSI pushed at maximum value in its peakish journey, seeing 98.48. The MACD steepened its rise away from the signal line as the index continued to cruise along at topping values for several of our indicators.

The Capes bounded up to our 3800 – 4000 target right off the bat in Week 29, so we won’t claim any foresight there. The index’s slow rise thereafter may be telling, however. With our old 1800 – 2000 target ideas as possible support, our binoculars are focused for any building weakness. The Capes, of course, may pay little heed to such misgivings.


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