Summer Break

For the next while, Superior Maritime’s internet spot (or blemish?) will be taking a summer break.

As we head off to the non-internet Canadian wilderness, we wish you a safe and happy summer. We’ll be catching up with you and dry bulk shipping again soon. Stay tuned to superiormar.com and @SuperiorMar on Twitter – we’ll be in touch.

Until then, keep your nose above water…

$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF: Week 30 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures*, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


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For Week 30 $BDRY confirmed our upside $18.00 tentative resistance target and spent the week consolidating. So far $BDRY seems to have some support from our Week 29 $16.50 – $17.00 ideas, with the fund closing the week at $16.59.

Our RSI retreated with the consolidation to 85.52, still in quite high territory for BDRY. The MACD carried on climbing, yet to acknowledge the fund’s pause.

It may be early days yet, but the pause in $BDRY has us casting an eye over our old $12 – $14 resistance/support zone as BDRY gingerly finds its way amongst weakening dry bulk futures markets.


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Baltic Supramax Index, Week 30 2019.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 30 2019.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 30 2019.


For insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY.


Dry bulk numbers climb….with warning signs? Baltic Dry Indices: Week 29 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Taking another surge for Week 29, the Handysize Index rose 20 points to a 492 fix. Taking a cue from the other dry bulk indices, the Handies pushed through our 450 – 475 resistance ideas from Week 21.

Reaching hard into peakish territory (Yes, we’re repeating ourselves…), our RSI touched 93.22. The MACD closed on its zero point, both indicators giving some weight to our thoughts of returning index stamina.

Whether there’s been a little index over-reach and our 450 – 475 zone turns into support is up for discussion, but the Handies spent the week climbing without a pause. We could look back at Week 26’s chart and note a slight nod to consolidation. Have the Handies found their footing and a stepping-stone? Stay tuned.


SUPRAMAX

Week 29 gave the Supramax index the largest surge since early 2019. With a near-100 point run to its 982 fix, the index never paused around our old 775 – 875 resistance for a rest.

At the risk of repeating ourselves (too late you say?…), our RSI tapped 79.78 in its excursion through peak values, and the MACD journeyed further into the positive to reach 6.66. (Don’t read anything into that number…) An overall topping view is creeping into our thoughts, but positive dry bulk sentiment could carry the day.

With all the peakish signs despite the sentiment, even grumpy old observers like us have a tentative 1100 target for the index. It’s possible our long-standing 775 – 875 resistance band may become support as the Supras continue climbing.


PANAMAX

For Week 29 the Panamax index broke highs not seen since late 2013 and pushed into values not seen in almost 10 years. The 2170 fix came after a gap up at the open and steady rise through the week to close on our 2300 target.

Is our RSI showing peaky signs? Many of our comments repeat those thoughts, but there it is at 84.83 with the lagging MACD in full runaway bull mode.

After the previous pause and slight nod to our Week 27 1700 – 1750 target, there may be support building in that same zone. Our tentative upside resistance target in the 2300 region could see some testing..


CAPESIZE

A gap up and fix at 4379 marked Week 29 for the Capesize index, with a near-1800 point surge early in the week being tempered by a slower rise to the fix.

Our RSI pushed at maximum value in its peakish journey, seeing 98.48. The MACD steepened its rise away from the signal line as the index continued to cruise along at topping values for several of our indicators.

The Capes bounded up to our 3800 – 4000 target right off the bat in Week 29, so we won’t claim any foresight there. The index’s slow rise thereafter may be telling, however. With our old 1800 – 2000 target ideas as possible support, our binoculars are focused for any building weakness. The Capes, of course, may pay little heed to such misgivings.


$BDRY pauses…..slightly. Breakwave DryBulk ETF : Week 29 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures*, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


As $BDRY approached our previously-mentioned $18.00 target zone, the fund took a slight dip early in Week 29 before climbing further to close at $17.57. The Tuesday dip and Wednesday indecision in $BDRY might be all we’ll see of our tentative resistance target.

Our RSI cruised along in peaking territory as the MACD finally reached into positive values, with some of our other indicators agreeing with the RSI and suggesting some type of consolidation is due.

Of course, some mere technical indication of peakishness can be easily brushed off by general market sentiment, and perhaps that’s what we have with dry bulk shipping at the moment. With Week 29’s slight pause possibly suggesting support in the $16.50 – $17.00 area, we wait to see if our old $12 – $14 support/resistance zone becomes just a distant memory.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 29 2019.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 29 2019.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 29 2019.


Dry bulk numbers climb….with warning signs? See our Baltic Dry Indices: Week 29 commentary at https://superiormar.com/


*For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


Behold the flying index: Baltic Dry Indices: Week 28 commentary. #drybulk #shipping #maritime #bdi

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Finally showing less reluctance, the Handysize index surged with its cousins in Week 28, gapping up and rising to a 472 close. The index is now within our Week 21 450 – 475 resistance thoughts.

Our RSI popped up strongly to peaking levels at 81.08 as the MACD closed on its zero point, angling away from the signal line.

Whether our peakish signals hold sway or not remains to be seen in the face of the dry bulk surge. Will the Handies follow suit and use the 450 – 475 band as a stepping stone or will they consolidate? Curious eyes are watching.


SUPRAMAX

Another gap-up and 50-point surge marked Week 28 for the Supramax index, showing a wider range and fixing at 879. Our Week 7 775 – 875 resistance zone has now been covered by the Supras in this latest run at the barrier.

Our RSI flirted with peak values, rising to 67.89 as the MACD widened its gap from the signal line in its bullish climb.

With the Supras now at the upper end of our 775 – 875 resistance thoughts the peakish-looking signs are there, but as with the other indices the general dry bulk sentiment is positive for now. As before, we watch for possible consolidation around this area, or at least a little rest.


PANAMAX

Going from strength to strength, the Panamax index gapped up and hit 1945 after a 250-point surge. Our tentative upside target of 1700 – 1750 registered as a mere pause earlier in the week.

Our RSI stayed in peaking country at 79.87 with a MACD that took on a near-vertical plane, staying not far from the signal line.

The rapid index movement makes possible targets hard to pin down as we plod through the charts, but a 2300 upside target may not be out of the picture for the Panamaxes. Our previous 1700 – 1750 target where the index paused briefly may become consolidation support should peakish signs take over.


CAPESIZE

A positive Week 28 for the Cape Index was marked by some slight weakness mid-week before rising to fix at 3541.

Our RSI pulled back very slightly to 98.17 (let’s face it, it didn’t have much room to grow) and the MACD stayed on its steeper divergence from the signal line.

With the Cape index now regaining similar heights to mid-2018, what’s next? We’re still watching our old 1800 – 2000 resistance zone (weak resistance at that) as possible support in a Capesize consolidation. A 3800 – 4000 target on is our horizon. The slight mid-Week 28 pause in the uptrend may be a tell, but we won’t grasp at that straw. The Capes will always humble their observers…


Fund climbs with dry bulk shipping surge. $BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF: Week 28 commentary.


For insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.



Fund climbs with dry bulk shipping surge. $BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF: Week 28 commentary.

by Dave Walker

Rand Logistics m/v Tecumseh loads grain at a Richardson International terminal in Thunder bay, Canada.

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


As we wind down to a summer hiatus for the Superior Maritime blog, Week 28 saw $BDRY reach 16.61 in its continued climb. With headlines bringing this ETF into the mainstream news, we watch with interest as exuberance takes over.

Our RSI leveled off to 96.99, still heavily peakish by indication accompanied by a MACD that steepened its bullish gradient. Given the overall surge in the shipping indices, (see index charts below) the markets may be thumbing their collective noses at mere chart-readers like us.

With the fund pushing well through our old $12 – $14 resistance band from Week 18, we’re keeping an eye on that area for support should consolidation kick in for $BDRY. With several of our indicators still pointing at peakishness, our next upside target is in the $18.00 zone. Whether it becomes a possible consolidation point or a new rung in the dry bulk ladder remains to be seen, as optimism spreads in the dry bulk market.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 28 2019.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 28 2019.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 28 2019.


Behold the flying index: Baltic Dry Indices: Week 28 commentary. 


*For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY.

Dirty Tankers retreat from our resistance; Clean Tankers on hold. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 27 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

In a near-imitation of the previous week, Week 27 for the Clean Tanker index was a quiet one, seeing a fix at 542 on a limited range. The index loitered around the level of its recent jump amid speculation over US East Coast refinery hiccups.

Meanwhile, back at the chart screen, our RSI dropped further to a bottomish-looking value of 23.14. The MACD, still influenced by the recent index jump, continued pushing towards a bullish signal-line crossing.

The Clean Tankers continue to give the impression of building strength even as the index rests for the moment. Our 625 – 650 resistance target is still on our radar however, and we wait to see what influence it may have.


DIRTY TANKERS

Calling a retreat for Week 27 the Dirty Tanker index dropped almost 30 points. Turning back once more from our 675 – 700 resistance ideas from back in Week 15, the index declined steadily to fix at 650.

As the MACD weakened slightly after its bullish signal-line crossing, the interesting note was our RSI which continued upwards to hit 50.37. Too early to call a possible divergence, all the same there may be the hint of underlying strength in the index.

Whether possible underlying strength will boost the Dirty Tanker index is a mere guess at this point, but we continue to watch our 675 – 700 resistance zone which has proved resilient so far. When weakness has set in, support has been around 625 – 650 in the recent sideways motion, but watching for developing RSI divergence may be worthwhile.


Capes, Panamaxes soar – Handies & Supras tag along. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 27 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

In Week 27 the Handysize index rose off the flat previous week to fix at 448. With the Handies seeming so reluctant, the overall boost across the Baltic complex dragged the index along with it. A slight slackness early on was cancelled out by a steady climb through the rest of the week.

Our RSI wandered down to just above neutral at 44.59 as the MACD, steadily bullish, continued creeping towards positive values.

Knocking on the door of our 450 – 475 resistance ideas from Week 21, we wait to see if the reluctance in the Handies becomes more pronounced, or if the index steps up and moves on to greater heights.


SUPRAMAX

Another gap up at open and surge to an 820 fix marked the Supramax index for Week 27. Well within our 775 – 875 resistance band now, the index rode the general dry bulk surge.

Our RSI continued to show decent strength, building to 50.89 while the MACD rose in bullish fashion, both indicators hinting at some continued index strength remaining.

With some of our other indicators showing peakish signs, we’re watching the Supras for another consolidation around our 775 – 875 resistance thoughts. With the general optimistic sentiment in dry bulk these days, a stepping-stone effect might be seen in this index.


PANAMAX

An impressive surge was seen in the Week 27 Panamax index, with a near-350 point jump to fix at 1665. Continuing the bounce off our Week 17 975 – 1000 support thoughts, the Panamaxes cut solidly through our 1350 – 1400 resistance ideas with barely a pause and put most technical indicators in our arsenal to shame.

Our RSI continued to curve back into peakish Panamax territory, while the MACD latched onto the up-move and was boosted well into positive values.

With the massive rise in dry bulk positive sentiment, Panamax owners may be enjoying a little sunlight. The latest move could turn our 1350 – 1400 resistance target into support as the index moves on. We have a tentative upside target around 1700 – 1750 which the index may have reached already, if we only dare look.


CAPESIZE

A heavy upward surge brought the Capesize index to a 3346 fix for Week 27, continuing its surge after giving a passing nod to our 1800 – 2000 resistance target from Week 20. For the moment, all the fundamental factors at play in iron ore and coal movement have put paid to we simple followers of scrawled lines on a chart.

Still at peakish values, our RSI hit 98.13 with a MACD that sailed happily along with the index, well clear of its signal line.

A target for the Capes? Well may you ask. At this level of volatility, the Capes are usually well ahead of any mere technical indicator. As we vainly hang on to our charts, our 1800 – 2000 zone may become support for this latest move with the possibility that the index may consolidate around present levels.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk #ETF: Week 27 commentary.


For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.