$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk #ETF: Week 27 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


Taking a strong leap to close at $15.02, $BDRY gained strength in Week 27 with the surge of optimistic sentiment in dry bulk shipping.

The MACD rode along with the upward wave, finally reaching past its zero point into the positive as the RSI pushed yet further into peakish country at 96.30.

With this gap-up and strong surge we haven’t said goodbye to our $12 – $14 resistance ideas from Week 18 yet, although a continued strong showing by $BDRY may consolidate and turn this zone into support. Some consolidation would calm our indicators down a little and possibly lead to another step in the dry bulk stairway. For now, let’s enjoy the ride.


For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


Baltic Dry Indices: Week 27 commentary.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 27 2019.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 27 2019.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 27 2019.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY.


$BDRY pushes further. Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF: Week 26 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


A small gap up and a close at 13.15 marked the slow climb in $BDRY for Week 26, with the fund showing some backing from some new-found dry bulk market optimism. Freight Investor Services put it succinctly – “hotter than a billy goat with a blowtorch.”

With the fund’s up-move, our RSI pushed higher to 75.41, the indicator giving further peakish indications even with such a slow steady move upwards. The MACD, just shy of zero values, continued its bullish trend.

The overall bullishness in nearby dry bulk futures has had a positive effect on BDRY as it continues its long, slow push into our $12 – $14 resistance ideas. Should the positivity continue in BDRY, our Week 22 $10.50 – $11.00 support thoughts may consolidate further, giving a decent foundation.


For some insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 26.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 26.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 26.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY

Panamaxes bounce off our support; Capes surge on. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 26 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Week 26 showed a flat Handysize Index, fixing at 442 on a non-existent range. Giving some credence to our Week 20 upside resistance ideas in the lower 400s, the index however paused closer to our Week 21 450 – 475 target zone after its solid gains.

Our RSI trickled down closer to neutral at 45.70, while the MACD took little notice of the pause to continue on in bullish fashion.

With the index midway between possible lower 400s support and our 450 – 475 target, it remains to be seen how the Handysize push-and-pull will work out. Improving fundamental sentiment in the dry bulk sector may be its saving grace.


SUPRAMAX

Another positive move marked Week 26 for the Supramax Index. With a fix at 787 on a decent 31-point move up, the Supras have re-entered our recurring 775 -875 resistance band which has proved a challenge to the index for most of 2019.

Our RSI kept just above the neutral zone at 44.80 as the MACD took a positive turn away from its signal-line, avoiding recent weakness.

It now remains to be seen what strength the index may have to push further into this 775 – 875 resistance. With some of our indicator spreads approaching peakishness, we’re watching the Supras with interest.


PANAMAX

A positive snap-back was seen in Week 26 for the Panamax Index. With a fix at 1286 after a 175-point run, the index took a solid bounce up just above our 975 – 1000 support ideas discussed back in Week 17.

Our RSI stayed in peakish territory with the up-move, while the MACD followed the index and backed away from its path towards the signal-line.

Do the Panamaxes now have enough momentum for another push at our Week 19 1350 – 1400 resistance zone? Possible, with the sudden overall optimism in dry bulk sentiment. Being a cautious bunch however, peakish signs remain for us.


CAPESIZE

Week 26 was another positive one for the Capesize Index. Pushing further away from our Week 20 1800 – 2000 resistance target, which in the Capes’ case was a mere stepping-stone on the chart, the index gapped up off the open and fixed at 2488.

Our RSI continued into peakish values, reaching 93.64. The MACD reached well into positive values with the index exuberance, happily tagging along in its bullishness.

While our indicators point towards rising peakishness, this of course is something the Capes have thumbed their noses at on a semi-regular basis. A tentative 2800 – 3000 target is in our sights for now, but having studiously avoided any Baltics’ news at time of publishing, the index may be there already. Such are the Capes – always poking fun at the pundits and often several steps ahead.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF – Week 26, 2019.

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com


Dirty Tankers meet our resistance; Clean Tankers spring upwards. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 26 commentary.

by Dave Walker.

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 26 the Clean Tanker Index popped up to a fix of 539, off a 550 Tuesday high. To acknowledge fundamentals, the PES Philadelphia refinery fire was widely seen as positively affecting product tanker rates. This news, and possibly the index range, was both boosted and tempered by announcements of refinery closure or possible a sale and restart.

Amidst the confusion, our RSI dropped to the threshold of bottoming territory at 34.41 while the MACD took a more positive turn towards its signal-line with the index jump and possible bullishness.

At first glance, the indicator divergences may hint at further index strength outside the high profile news of recent weeks. While the dust settles, we are still watching our 625 – 650 resistance thoughts should the restrained Week 26 action gain momentum.


DIRTY TANKERS

A tight range marked the Dirty Tanker index for Week 26, fixing at 680. Staying in the midst of our Week 15 675 – 700 resistance thoughts, the index kept to a tight 3-point spread to parallel the previous week’s fix.

Our RSI stayed around neutral at 42.02 while the MACD, alone in its bullishness, continued an excursion across the signal line.

Still seeming to have a challenge with our 675 – 700 resistance zone, the Dirty Tankers are under observation for building signs of renewed energy.


Dirty Tankers push into resistance, Clean Tankers pull up. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 25 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 25 the Clean Tanker index bounced back somewhat and fixed at 510, despite our gloomier thoughts of a downward excursion into the 450s. As the index came off a fresh 2019 low, our Week 19 lower 500s support thoughts (that go back to early 2019) appear to be exerting some influence.

Our RSI hung around the neutral zone at 40.00 and the MACD eased its decline to point towards the signal line again, both indicators being annoyingly non-indicating in this more-or-less sideways index.

With a new 2019 low being previously tapped the Clean Tankers still seem a little weak. Any continuance of Week 25’s decent-looking rebound may see some resistance around our 625 – 650 ideas from Week 17, although the index has shown little appetite for such dizzying heights lately.


DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 25 a small gap-up, but tighter range, saw the Dirty Tanker index take a second push into our Week 15 675 – 700 resistance ideas to fix at 679, just off a high of 681.

A rising RSI reached 41.21, still in neutral territory as the MACD made a solid crossing of its signal-line into bullish mode.

We watch with interest to see what strength our 675 – 700 resistance thoughts may have against a rising index, and if the index has enough energy to avoid more sideways motion.


Capes push through target; Panamax decline slows. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 25 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index continued its rise in Week 25, increasing its range and posting an 18-point surge to fix at 440.

Our RSI eased its decline and pulled up a little to 50.90 while the MACD steepened its climb, rising away from the signal line.

As our original low-400s upside resistance appears to weaken, our thoughts of support-building below present levels and our Week 21 upside target in the 450-475 range may come into play.


SUPRAMAX

Taking a bounce up off our 700 – 715 support ideas, the Supramax Index fixed at 751 for Week 25. After our downside bias thoughts in Week 20 were somewhat confirmed, the low-700s support seems to have continued the sideways channeling of the Supras.

Our RSI rose to 45.38, possibly leaving neutrality behind as the MACD pulled slightly away from a bearish signal-line intersection for now.

Once again we’re watching our 775 – 875 upside resistance, a level that we’ve been eyeing since Week 7. It remains to be seen if there is still strength in this persistent zone of resistance, which the Supras have turned away from twice this year so far.


PANAMAX

For Week 25 the Panamax Index decline slowed its momentum, tightening its range and fixing at 1096, as it retreated from our 1350 – 1400 resistance.

Our RSI leveled off somewhat to a still-potent 63.78, perhaps confirming the momentum-loss as the MACD continued to decline with the index, closing on its signal-line.

Our Week 17 thoughts of support in the 975 – 1000 range are now coming into play as the Panamaxes’ decline from our 1350 – 1400 resistance zone slows. On the threshold of that range now, let’s see if enough support builds to keep the index afloat.


CAPESIZE

For Week 25, after a brief pause at Week 20’s 1800 – 2000 resistance target, the Capesize Index surged slightly through that zone and fixed at 2278.

Our RSI , easing off in its climb, reached a peakish 83.52. The MACD rose well into positive values, curving slightly away from the signal line with the index boost. A small observation – of course these indicators are something the Capes pay scant attention to (like many others?). However, the last time our RSI showed these values was at the first index peak after recovery from the lows of 2016.

From back in Week 20, we’re still watching our 1000 – 1200 support ideas in case of any weakness in the index. As we mentioned last week, our 1800 – 2000 target could act as a stepping stone for more index progress, but it remains to be seen if there is any attraction left for this target.

A rising tide lifts all boats as they say – ‘they” in this case being Brazilian iron ore miners, to whom the Capesize bungee cord is well attached. Of course, when the iron ore industry sneezes, the Capes come down with a cold – stay tuned. (See? We do mention fundamentals now and then…)


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF : Week 25 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


Week 25 saw $BDRY continued its tentative push, moving a little more into our $12 – $14 resistance range to close the week at 12.69.

Our RSI retreated to a still-strong 66.00 with a MACD on the threshold of positive values as BDRY very gently trended upwards.

As before, we still have the impression of $BDRY building on a base of support just below existing values. We tentatively marked possible support around $10.50 – $11.00 back in Week 22. A few of our indicators appear to hint at underlying strength, although continued peakish signs and stubborn upside resistance is cause for caution.


For some insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on Supramax, Panamax and Capesize positions.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 25.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 25.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 25.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY

Clean drop, Dirty rise. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 24 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

Taking a dive in Week 24, the Clean Tanker Index fixed at 491 after a 16-point decline. Previously of course, we had opened our big mouth and remarked on the lack of channel break-out signs.

Still in neutral territory, our RSI declined to 41.14, and the MACD happily followed the index and strengthened its decline.

Now eyeballing our gloomier 450 target, we wait to see if the Clean Tankers’ weakness is just a test of our low 500s support thoughts, or a heavier attraction to seasonal lows.


DIRTY TANKERS

A 662 fix marked an upwardly mobile Week 24 for the Dirty Tanker Index. Seemingly taking another tilt at our 675 – 700 resistance, the index took a 17-point surge from a small gap up at the open.

Our RSI reached towards neutral territory, climbing to 37.42. The MACD also took a crook upwards and parked on the signal-line, awaiting a possible excursion into bullish country.

With all the Dirty Tankers’ slightly bullish signs, we await another test of our Week 15 675 – 700 resistance ideas. Another failure may mean a return to the sideways wandering of recent months.


Capes pause at our target, Handies build further. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 24 commentary.

by Dave Walker


HANDYSIZE

Rising to a 420 fix for Week 24, the Handysize Index pushed further into our low-400s resistance ideas.

Our RSI dropped a little more to 49.69, not far above neutrality. The MACD steepened its bullish climb, reaching further from the signal line.

Continued strength in the Handies had us looking at a 450 – 475 target in Week 21 and may still be in the cards with the gathering index strength. Our Week 21 ideas of support building just below current levels may also be borne out, but we’ll see.


SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index gave us a flat spot in Week 24, spending its time in a tight 7-point range to fix at 716. The index action gave a nod to our 700-725 support ideas from Week 20, and our more recent thoughts in the 700 – 715 range.

Our RSI eased its fall as it entered neutral values, reaching 39.37. The MACD continued almost level, converging on its signal-line.

With the Supras pausing around our 710 – 725 support thoughts from Week 23 , there’s a chance the index may channel sideways between that area and our 775 – 875 resistance zone. Stay tuned and be on guard for index weakness in these volatile times.


PANAMAX

The Panamax Index continued its fall in Week 24 with an opening gap down and 56-point fill to an 1131 fix, still retreating from our Week 19 1350-1400 resistance and confirming our thoughts of peakishness.

Our RSI reached 65.82, still in the peakish zone for the Panamaxes while the MACD hooked towards the signal-line, weakening with the index decline.

We’re keeping an eye on our Week 17 support thoughts around 975 – 1000 as the Panamaxes fall away, and looking for any signs of braking action on the index.


CAPESIZE

Week 24 in the Capesize Index chart gave us a dark “hanging” candlestick, the index pausing at the bottom end of our Week 20 1800 – 2000 upside resistance target to fix at, yes, 1800.

Once again our RSI reached further into peakish territory for the Capes, easing slightly as it climbed to 82.21. The MACD eased very slightly in its rise, still keeping to the bullish side of the signal-line.

While watching our previous consolidation point around 1000 – 1200 for index pull-backs (note the small hiccup around Weeks 18-19), the Week 24 pause could be a stair-step that boosts the Capes further. That is, unless our 1800 – 2000 resistance zone displays further strength, given some of our peaky indicators.