Capes push through target; Panamax decline slows. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 25 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index continued its rise in Week 25, increasing its range and posting an 18-point surge to fix at 440.

Our RSI eased its decline and pulled up a little to 50.90 while the MACD steepened its climb, rising away from the signal line.

As our original low-400s upside resistance appears to weaken, our thoughts of support-building below present levels and our Week 21 upside target in the 450-475 range may come into play.


SUPRAMAX

Taking a bounce up off our 700 – 715 support ideas, the Supramax Index fixed at 751 for Week 25. After our downside bias thoughts in Week 20 were somewhat confirmed, the low-700s support seems to have continued the sideways channeling of the Supras.

Our RSI rose to 45.38, possibly leaving neutrality behind as the MACD pulled slightly away from a bearish signal-line intersection for now.

Once again we’re watching our 775 – 875 upside resistance, a level that we’ve been eyeing since Week 7. It remains to be seen if there is still strength in this persistent zone of resistance, which the Supras have turned away from twice this year so far.


PANAMAX

For Week 25 the Panamax Index decline slowed its momentum, tightening its range and fixing at 1096, as it retreated from our 1350 – 1400 resistance.

Our RSI leveled off somewhat to a still-potent 63.78, perhaps confirming the momentum-loss as the MACD continued to decline with the index, closing on its signal-line.

Our Week 17 thoughts of support in the 975 – 1000 range are now coming into play as the Panamaxes’ decline from our 1350 – 1400 resistance zone slows. On the threshold of that range now, let’s see if enough support builds to keep the index afloat.


CAPESIZE

For Week 25, after a brief pause at Week 20’s 1800 – 2000 resistance target, the Capesize Index surged slightly through that zone and fixed at 2278.

Our RSI , easing off in its climb, reached a peakish 83.52. The MACD rose well into positive values, curving slightly away from the signal line with the index boost. A small observation – of course these indicators are something the Capes pay scant attention to (like many others?). However, the last time our RSI showed these values was at the first index peak after recovery from the lows of 2016.

From back in Week 20, we’re still watching our 1000 – 1200 support ideas in case of any weakness in the index. As we mentioned last week, our 1800 – 2000 target could act as a stepping stone for more index progress, but it remains to be seen if there is any attraction left for this target.

A rising tide lifts all boats as they say – ‘they” in this case being Brazilian iron ore miners, to whom the Capesize bungee cord is well attached. Of course, when the iron ore industry sneezes, the Capes come down with a cold – stay tuned. (See? We do mention fundamentals now and then…)


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF : Week 25 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


Week 25 saw $BDRY continued its tentative push, moving a little more into our $12 – $14 resistance range to close the week at 12.69.

Our RSI retreated to a still-strong 66.00 with a MACD on the threshold of positive values as BDRY very gently trended upwards.

As before, we still have the impression of $BDRY building on a base of support just below existing values. We tentatively marked possible support around $10.50 – $11.00 back in Week 22. A few of our indicators appear to hint at underlying strength, although continued peakish signs and stubborn upside resistance is cause for caution.


For some insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on Supramax, Panamax and Capesize positions.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 25.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 25.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 25.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY

Clean drop, Dirty rise. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 24 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

Taking a dive in Week 24, the Clean Tanker Index fixed at 491 after a 16-point decline. Previously of course, we had opened our big mouth and remarked on the lack of channel break-out signs.

Still in neutral territory, our RSI declined to 41.14, and the MACD happily followed the index and strengthened its decline.

Now eyeballing our gloomier 450 target, we wait to see if the Clean Tankers’ weakness is just a test of our low 500s support thoughts, or a heavier attraction to seasonal lows.


DIRTY TANKERS

A 662 fix marked an upwardly mobile Week 24 for the Dirty Tanker Index. Seemingly taking another tilt at our 675 – 700 resistance, the index took a 17-point surge from a small gap up at the open.

Our RSI reached towards neutral territory, climbing to 37.42. The MACD also took a crook upwards and parked on the signal-line, awaiting a possible excursion into bullish country.

With all the Dirty Tankers’ slightly bullish signs, we await another test of our Week 15 675 – 700 resistance ideas. Another failure may mean a return to the sideways wandering of recent months.


Capes pause at our target, Handies build further. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 24 commentary.

by Dave Walker


HANDYSIZE

Rising to a 420 fix for Week 24, the Handysize Index pushed further into our low-400s resistance ideas.

Our RSI dropped a little more to 49.69, not far above neutrality. The MACD steepened its bullish climb, reaching further from the signal line.

Continued strength in the Handies had us looking at a 450 – 475 target in Week 21 and may still be in the cards with the gathering index strength. Our Week 21 ideas of support building just below current levels may also be borne out, but we’ll see.


SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index gave us a flat spot in Week 24, spending its time in a tight 7-point range to fix at 716. The index action gave a nod to our 700-725 support ideas from Week 20, and our more recent thoughts in the 700 – 715 range.

Our RSI eased its fall as it entered neutral values, reaching 39.37. The MACD continued almost level, converging on its signal-line.

With the Supras pausing around our 710 – 725 support thoughts from Week 23 , there’s a chance the index may channel sideways between that area and our 775 – 875 resistance zone. Stay tuned and be on guard for index weakness in these volatile times.


PANAMAX

The Panamax Index continued its fall in Week 24 with an opening gap down and 56-point fill to an 1131 fix, still retreating from our Week 19 1350-1400 resistance and confirming our thoughts of peakishness.

Our RSI reached 65.82, still in the peakish zone for the Panamaxes while the MACD hooked towards the signal-line, weakening with the index decline.

We’re keeping an eye on our Week 17 support thoughts around 975 – 1000 as the Panamaxes fall away, and looking for any signs of braking action on the index.


CAPESIZE

Week 24 in the Capesize Index chart gave us a dark “hanging” candlestick, the index pausing at the bottom end of our Week 20 1800 – 2000 upside resistance target to fix at, yes, 1800.

Once again our RSI reached further into peakish territory for the Capes, easing slightly as it climbed to 82.21. The MACD eased very slightly in its rise, still keeping to the bullish side of the signal-line.

While watching our previous consolidation point around 1000 – 1200 for index pull-backs (note the small hiccup around Weeks 18-19), the Week 24 pause could be a stair-step that boosts the Capes further. That is, unless our 1800 – 2000 resistance zone displays further strength, given some of our peaky indicators.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF: Week 24 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


For Week 24, $BDRY closed up slightly at 12.39 and at first glance this ETF has come across as a real yawner over the past few weeks. However, a closer look reveals some incrementally higher closes as the fund sneaks slowly into our $12 – $14 resistance zone.

Pushing ever higher, our RSI at 71.71 reached a peakish-looking value. Compare this to Week 18’s RSI of 38.70 at a $12.25 close, hence our yawns. The MACD stayed at an upward snail’s pace, just shy of positive values yet again.

Is $BDRY building a foundation here? Bringing up Week 18’s commentary yet again, we muttered something about consolidation around present values. $BDRY may be experiencing some tempering effects from lack-lustre Supra and Panamax forward curves being offset by Capesize exuberance. Overall the impression is of BDRY gingerly building support just below current levels, offering a welcome buffer against those volatile indices. However a weather eye will also be kept on peakish signals as we tread carefully on eggshell-like support.


Week 24 Baltic Supramax Index


Week 24 Baltic Panamax Index


Week 24 Baltic Capesize Index


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY


Panamaxes retreat from our resistance zone; Capes surge. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 23 commentary.

by Dave Walker


HANDYSIZE

For Week 23 the Handysize Index pushed into our low-400s resistance thoughts, rising steadily to a 412 fix.

Our RSI dropped a little further to a still-strong 55.19 and the MACD rose further away from the signal-line, lifted by the index action.

A rise from the recent shallow trough appears possible given the general mood of the index, although the Handies are now into our upside resistance thoughts from Week 20. However the overall strength may be there to push further. Should index strength continue to build, we have a tentative upside target in the 475 – 500 area.


SUPRAMAX

Still retreating from our 675 – 775 resistance zone, in Week 23 the Supramax Index fell a further 29 points to a 719 fix.

Our RSI declined towards neutrality at 44.68 while the MACD took a slight diversion towards the signal-line and bearishness.

All may not be lost for the Supras however, with a hint of possible resistance building just below present levels. Weeks 15 – 16’s turning point around 710 – 715 may be an area to watch for support, and the Supras are on that threshold now.


PANAMAX

Retreating to a 1213 fix for Week 23, the Panamax Index stalled and fell away from our Week 19 1350 – 1400 upside resistance target. Reinforcing our previous thoughts of peakiness in the index, the Panamaxes took a 112-point drop.

Our RSI, still in peakish values, declined to 75.07 as the MACD took an abrupt pause and flattened out with the index drop.

At first glance, the index drop seems somewhat stronger than the possible consolidation mentioned in our Week 21 comments. If the Panamax weakness builds, we’re watching our Week 17 target in the 975 – 1000 zone for support.


CAPESIZE

For Week 23 the Capesize Index boldly reached into our Week 20 1800 – 2000 upside resistance ideas and fixed at 1862, casting shade on our previous mutterings of slowing momentum. The index may be mimicking the action around our 1000 – 1200 resistance ideas from the dark days of Week 14. That target served as a mere ladder-rung for the Capes in Weeks 18 – 19.

Our RSI reached well into its peaking zone at 79.40 while the MACD grew more bullish, slightly diverging from the signal-line.

As before we’re cautious around this Week 20 1800 – 2000 target, even with peakish-looking indicators. The Capes have thumbed their noses at us before and surged to greater heights, (or deeper lows) with resistance and support targets often barely-acknowledged stepping stones in this volatile index. All the same, we’re watching closely now that the index has entered our resistance target zone.


Clean Tankers dither; Dirty Tankers to try again? Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 23 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 23 the Clean Tanker Index gapped down and reached a 515 low early on before recovering to fix at 521. The recent index action seems to be bracketing a sideways channel, with no impetus to break out in either direction visible yet.

Our RSI was basically unchanged, in neutral territory at 43.92 as the MACD drifted down and away from the signal line, both giving possibly weak signs of building strength.

Our Week 20 thoughts of resistance just above present levels appear to have been borne out somewhat, and some support in the mid-to-low 500s is now visible. We mentioned this downside target back in Week 3 of this year. The Clean Tankers having strength enough to rise out of this zone remains to be seen, but it may be building. The 450 area serves as our more pessimistic target if the present support weakens.


DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 23 the Dirty Tanker Index pulled up from its recent retreat after failing to pierce our Week 15 675 – 700 resistance zone . Finding a fix at 643, the index was up 9 points despite touching 632 in mid-week.

Our RSI kept pace with the index, rising slightly above bottoming values to 30.21. The MACD took a turn towards its signal-line, closing on a possible crossing.

Seemingly in channel mode as per our recent observations, are the Dirty Tankers taking a pause before trying for our 675 – 700 resistance again? Too early to tell in our case, and in our usual caution we’re keeping a weather eye on our mid-500s support thoughts from Week 12.

$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF : Week 23 commentary.

by Dave Walker

$BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


Still nudging at our $12 -$14 resistance zone from Week 18, $BDRY reached a high of $12.65 but closed off the week at $12.30.

Our RSI kept climbing, reaching 60.54 as $BDRY made barely noticeable highs. The MACD almost reached its zero point, both indicators still showing some strength although the RSI causes a little peakish concern.

As $BDRY continues to poke at our Week 18 resistance ideas, our thoughts of possible support building around $10.50 – $11.00 are still there. A glance at last week’s Baltic Shipping Index charts (see below) shows a drop-off in the Supramax and Panamax sectors while the Capesize category surged, tempering the others’ weakness. BDRY’s sideways travel may linger a while.


Week 23 Baltic Supramax Shipping Index


Week 23 Baltic Panamax Shipping Index


Week 23 Baltic Capesize Shipping Index


*Disclaimer: Superior Maritime does not hold any stock in $BDRY.


Clean Tankers rise and pause: Dirty Tankers drop. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 22 commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 22 the Clean Tanker Index fixed at 537, showing a very tight 4-point range. Our Week 20 thoughts of upside resistance building around present values may be gaining some credibility, although Week 22’s strong gap-up on open is quite noticeable.

Our RSI climbed through neutrality to 43.53 while the MACD continued to trail off towards the signal-line, weakening in its downtrend.

Our mid-500s support ideas from back in January of this year, and mentioned several times since, have been tested in the last few weeks. Our recent upside resistance target around 550 – 575 may be seeing some acknowledgement with Week 22’s high of 541, but let’s not read too much into the indices during a holiday week. Overall the Clean Tankers may still be gaining strength.


DIRTY TANKERS

Dropping again during Week 22, the Dirty Tanker Index continued to rebound off our 675 – 700 resistance zone and fixed at 636, down another 9 points.

Our RSI dropped further towards bottoming territory at 24.93. The MACD shied away from crossing the signal-line, acknowledging the recent bearishness, but both indicators may be hinting at gathering strength even as the index drops.

The recent index action somewhat confirms our Week 21 thoughts of some sideways motion, as the index takes a trip back to Week 13 / 14 levels and hopefully support around the 2016 and 2017 lows. We’re watching to see if the index is good for another run at our 675 – 700 resistance.