$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF: Week 30 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures*, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is tbaybulk-1024x251.jpg

For Week 30 $BDRY confirmed our upside $18.00 tentative resistance target and spent the week consolidating. So far $BDRY seems to have some support from our Week 29 $16.50 – $17.00 ideas, with the fund closing the week at $16.59.

Our RSI retreated with the consolidation to 85.52, still in quite high territory for BDRY. The MACD carried on climbing, yet to acknowledge the fund’s pause.

It may be early days yet, but the pause in $BDRY has us casting an eye over our old $12 – $14 resistance/support zone as BDRY gingerly finds its way amongst weakening dry bulk futures markets.


This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is tbaybulk-1024x251.jpg

Baltic Supramax Index, Week 30 2019.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 30 2019.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 30 2019.


For insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY.


Dry bulk numbers climb….with warning signs? Baltic Dry Indices: Week 29 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Taking another surge for Week 29, the Handysize Index rose 20 points to a 492 fix. Taking a cue from the other dry bulk indices, the Handies pushed through our 450 – 475 resistance ideas from Week 21.

Reaching hard into peakish territory (Yes, we’re repeating ourselves…), our RSI touched 93.22. The MACD closed on its zero point, both indicators giving some weight to our thoughts of returning index stamina.

Whether there’s been a little index over-reach and our 450 – 475 zone turns into support is up for discussion, but the Handies spent the week climbing without a pause. We could look back at Week 26’s chart and note a slight nod to consolidation. Have the Handies found their footing and a stepping-stone? Stay tuned.


SUPRAMAX

Week 29 gave the Supramax index the largest surge since early 2019. With a near-100 point run to its 982 fix, the index never paused around our old 775 – 875 resistance for a rest.

At the risk of repeating ourselves (too late you say?…), our RSI tapped 79.78 in its excursion through peak values, and the MACD journeyed further into the positive to reach 6.66. (Don’t read anything into that number…) An overall topping view is creeping into our thoughts, but positive dry bulk sentiment could carry the day.

With all the peakish signs despite the sentiment, even grumpy old observers like us have a tentative 1100 target for the index. It’s possible our long-standing 775 – 875 resistance band may become support as the Supras continue climbing.


PANAMAX

For Week 29 the Panamax index broke highs not seen since late 2013 and pushed into values not seen in almost 10 years. The 2170 fix came after a gap up at the open and steady rise through the week to close on our 2300 target.

Is our RSI showing peaky signs? Many of our comments repeat those thoughts, but there it is at 84.83 with the lagging MACD in full runaway bull mode.

After the previous pause and slight nod to our Week 27 1700 – 1750 target, there may be support building in that same zone. Our tentative upside resistance target in the 2300 region could see some testing..


CAPESIZE

A gap up and fix at 4379 marked Week 29 for the Capesize index, with a near-1800 point surge early in the week being tempered by a slower rise to the fix.

Our RSI pushed at maximum value in its peakish journey, seeing 98.48. The MACD steepened its rise away from the signal line as the index continued to cruise along at topping values for several of our indicators.

The Capes bounded up to our 3800 – 4000 target right off the bat in Week 29, so we won’t claim any foresight there. The index’s slow rise thereafter may be telling, however. With our old 1800 – 2000 target ideas as possible support, our binoculars are focused for any building weakness. The Capes, of course, may pay little heed to such misgivings.


$BDRY pauses…..slightly. Breakwave DryBulk ETF : Week 29 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures*, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


As $BDRY approached our previously-mentioned $18.00 target zone, the fund took a slight dip early in Week 29 before climbing further to close at $17.57. The Tuesday dip and Wednesday indecision in $BDRY might be all we’ll see of our tentative resistance target.

Our RSI cruised along in peaking territory as the MACD finally reached into positive values, with some of our other indicators agreeing with the RSI and suggesting some type of consolidation is due.

Of course, some mere technical indication of peakishness can be easily brushed off by general market sentiment, and perhaps that’s what we have with dry bulk shipping at the moment. With Week 29’s slight pause possibly suggesting support in the $16.50 – $17.00 area, we wait to see if our old $12 – $14 support/resistance zone becomes just a distant memory.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 29 2019.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 29 2019.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 29 2019.


Dry bulk numbers climb….with warning signs? See our Baltic Dry Indices: Week 29 commentary at https://superiormar.com/


*For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


Fund climbs with dry bulk shipping surge. $BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF: Week 28 commentary.

by Dave Walker

Rand Logistics m/v Tecumseh loads grain at a Richardson International terminal in Thunder bay, Canada.

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


As we wind down to a summer hiatus for the Superior Maritime blog, Week 28 saw $BDRY reach 16.61 in its continued climb. With headlines bringing this ETF into the mainstream news, we watch with interest as exuberance takes over.

Our RSI leveled off to 96.99, still heavily peakish by indication accompanied by a MACD that steepened its bullish gradient. Given the overall surge in the shipping indices, (see index charts below) the markets may be thumbing their collective noses at mere chart-readers like us.

With the fund pushing well through our old $12 – $14 resistance band from Week 18, we’re keeping an eye on that area for support should consolidation kick in for $BDRY. With several of our indicators still pointing at peakishness, our next upside target is in the $18.00 zone. Whether it becomes a possible consolidation point or a new rung in the dry bulk ladder remains to be seen, as optimism spreads in the dry bulk market.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 28 2019.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 28 2019.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 28 2019.


Behold the flying index: Baltic Dry Indices: Week 28 commentary. 


*For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY.

Capes, Panamaxes soar – Handies & Supras tag along. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 27 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

In Week 27 the Handysize index rose off the flat previous week to fix at 448. With the Handies seeming so reluctant, the overall boost across the Baltic complex dragged the index along with it. A slight slackness early on was cancelled out by a steady climb through the rest of the week.

Our RSI wandered down to just above neutral at 44.59 as the MACD, steadily bullish, continued creeping towards positive values.

Knocking on the door of our 450 – 475 resistance ideas from Week 21, we wait to see if the reluctance in the Handies becomes more pronounced, or if the index steps up and moves on to greater heights.


SUPRAMAX

Another gap up at open and surge to an 820 fix marked the Supramax index for Week 27. Well within our 775 – 875 resistance band now, the index rode the general dry bulk surge.

Our RSI continued to show decent strength, building to 50.89 while the MACD rose in bullish fashion, both indicators hinting at some continued index strength remaining.

With some of our other indicators showing peakish signs, we’re watching the Supras for another consolidation around our 775 – 875 resistance thoughts. With the general optimistic sentiment in dry bulk these days, a stepping-stone effect might be seen in this index.


PANAMAX

An impressive surge was seen in the Week 27 Panamax index, with a near-350 point jump to fix at 1665. Continuing the bounce off our Week 17 975 – 1000 support thoughts, the Panamaxes cut solidly through our 1350 – 1400 resistance ideas with barely a pause and put most technical indicators in our arsenal to shame.

Our RSI continued to curve back into peakish Panamax territory, while the MACD latched onto the up-move and was boosted well into positive values.

With the massive rise in dry bulk positive sentiment, Panamax owners may be enjoying a little sunlight. The latest move could turn our 1350 – 1400 resistance target into support as the index moves on. We have a tentative upside target around 1700 – 1750 which the index may have reached already, if we only dare look.


CAPESIZE

A heavy upward surge brought the Capesize index to a 3346 fix for Week 27, continuing its surge after giving a passing nod to our 1800 – 2000 resistance target from Week 20. For the moment, all the fundamental factors at play in iron ore and coal movement have put paid to we simple followers of scrawled lines on a chart.

Still at peakish values, our RSI hit 98.13 with a MACD that sailed happily along with the index, well clear of its signal line.

A target for the Capes? Well may you ask. At this level of volatility, the Capes are usually well ahead of any mere technical indicator. As we vainly hang on to our charts, our 1800 – 2000 zone may become support for this latest move with the possibility that the index may consolidate around present levels.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk #ETF: Week 27 commentary.


For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk #ETF: Week 27 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


Taking a strong leap to close at $15.02, $BDRY gained strength in Week 27 with the surge of optimistic sentiment in dry bulk shipping.

The MACD rode along with the upward wave, finally reaching past its zero point into the positive as the RSI pushed yet further into peakish country at 96.30.

With this gap-up and strong surge we haven’t said goodbye to our $12 – $14 resistance ideas from Week 18 yet, although a continued strong showing by $BDRY may consolidate and turn this zone into support. Some consolidation would calm our indicators down a little and possibly lead to another step in the dry bulk stairway. For now, let’s enjoy the ride.


For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


Baltic Dry Indices: Week 27 commentary.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 27 2019.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 27 2019.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 27 2019.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY.


Capes push through target; Panamax decline slows. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 25 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index continued its rise in Week 25, increasing its range and posting an 18-point surge to fix at 440.

Our RSI eased its decline and pulled up a little to 50.90 while the MACD steepened its climb, rising away from the signal line.

As our original low-400s upside resistance appears to weaken, our thoughts of support-building below present levels and our Week 21 upside target in the 450-475 range may come into play.


SUPRAMAX

Taking a bounce up off our 700 – 715 support ideas, the Supramax Index fixed at 751 for Week 25. After our downside bias thoughts in Week 20 were somewhat confirmed, the low-700s support seems to have continued the sideways channeling of the Supras.

Our RSI rose to 45.38, possibly leaving neutrality behind as the MACD pulled slightly away from a bearish signal-line intersection for now.

Once again we’re watching our 775 – 875 upside resistance, a level that we’ve been eyeing since Week 7. It remains to be seen if there is still strength in this persistent zone of resistance, which the Supras have turned away from twice this year so far.


PANAMAX

For Week 25 the Panamax Index decline slowed its momentum, tightening its range and fixing at 1096, as it retreated from our 1350 – 1400 resistance.

Our RSI leveled off somewhat to a still-potent 63.78, perhaps confirming the momentum-loss as the MACD continued to decline with the index, closing on its signal-line.

Our Week 17 thoughts of support in the 975 – 1000 range are now coming into play as the Panamaxes’ decline from our 1350 – 1400 resistance zone slows. On the threshold of that range now, let’s see if enough support builds to keep the index afloat.


CAPESIZE

For Week 25, after a brief pause at Week 20’s 1800 – 2000 resistance target, the Capesize Index surged slightly through that zone and fixed at 2278.

Our RSI , easing off in its climb, reached a peakish 83.52. The MACD rose well into positive values, curving slightly away from the signal line with the index boost. A small observation – of course these indicators are something the Capes pay scant attention to (like many others?). However, the last time our RSI showed these values was at the first index peak after recovery from the lows of 2016.

From back in Week 20, we’re still watching our 1000 – 1200 support ideas in case of any weakness in the index. As we mentioned last week, our 1800 – 2000 target could act as a stepping stone for more index progress, but it remains to be seen if there is any attraction left for this target.

A rising tide lifts all boats as they say – ‘they” in this case being Brazilian iron ore miners, to whom the Capesize bungee cord is well attached. Of course, when the iron ore industry sneezes, the Capes come down with a cold – stay tuned. (See? We do mention fundamentals now and then…)


Panamaxes retreat from our resistance zone; Capes surge. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 23 commentary.

by Dave Walker


HANDYSIZE

For Week 23 the Handysize Index pushed into our low-400s resistance thoughts, rising steadily to a 412 fix.

Our RSI dropped a little further to a still-strong 55.19 and the MACD rose further away from the signal-line, lifted by the index action.

A rise from the recent shallow trough appears possible given the general mood of the index, although the Handies are now into our upside resistance thoughts from Week 20. However the overall strength may be there to push further. Should index strength continue to build, we have a tentative upside target in the 475 – 500 area.


SUPRAMAX

Still retreating from our 675 – 775 resistance zone, in Week 23 the Supramax Index fell a further 29 points to a 719 fix.

Our RSI declined towards neutrality at 44.68 while the MACD took a slight diversion towards the signal-line and bearishness.

All may not be lost for the Supras however, with a hint of possible resistance building just below present levels. Weeks 15 – 16’s turning point around 710 – 715 may be an area to watch for support, and the Supras are on that threshold now.


PANAMAX

Retreating to a 1213 fix for Week 23, the Panamax Index stalled and fell away from our Week 19 1350 – 1400 upside resistance target. Reinforcing our previous thoughts of peakiness in the index, the Panamaxes took a 112-point drop.

Our RSI, still in peakish values, declined to 75.07 as the MACD took an abrupt pause and flattened out with the index drop.

At first glance, the index drop seems somewhat stronger than the possible consolidation mentioned in our Week 21 comments. If the Panamax weakness builds, we’re watching our Week 17 target in the 975 – 1000 zone for support.


CAPESIZE

For Week 23 the Capesize Index boldly reached into our Week 20 1800 – 2000 upside resistance ideas and fixed at 1862, casting shade on our previous mutterings of slowing momentum. The index may be mimicking the action around our 1000 – 1200 resistance ideas from the dark days of Week 14. That target served as a mere ladder-rung for the Capes in Weeks 18 – 19.

Our RSI reached well into its peaking zone at 79.40 while the MACD grew more bullish, slightly diverging from the signal-line.

As before we’re cautious around this Week 20 1800 – 2000 target, even with peakish-looking indicators. The Capes have thumbed their noses at us before and surged to greater heights, (or deeper lows) with resistance and support targets often barely-acknowledged stepping stones in this volatile index. All the same, we’re watching closely now that the index has entered our resistance target zone.