Dirty Tankers retreat from our resistance; Clean Tankers on hold. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 27 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

In a near-imitation of the previous week, Week 27 for the Clean Tanker index was a quiet one, seeing a fix at 542 on a limited range. The index loitered around the level of its recent jump amid speculation over US East Coast refinery hiccups.

Meanwhile, back at the chart screen, our RSI dropped further to a bottomish-looking value of 23.14. The MACD, still influenced by the recent index jump, continued pushing towards a bullish signal-line crossing.

The Clean Tankers continue to give the impression of building strength even as the index rests for the moment. Our 625 – 650 resistance target is still on our radar however, and we wait to see what influence it may have.


DIRTY TANKERS

Calling a retreat for Week 27 the Dirty Tanker index dropped almost 30 points. Turning back once more from our 675 – 700 resistance ideas from back in Week 15, the index declined steadily to fix at 650.

As the MACD weakened slightly after its bullish signal-line crossing, the interesting note was our RSI which continued upwards to hit 50.37. Too early to call a possible divergence, all the same there may be the hint of underlying strength in the index.

Whether possible underlying strength will boost the Dirty Tanker index is a mere guess at this point, but we continue to watch our 675 – 700 resistance zone which has proved resilient so far. When weakness has set in, support has been around 625 – 650 in the recent sideways motion, but watching for developing RSI divergence may be worthwhile.


Dirty Tankers meet our resistance; Clean Tankers spring upwards. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 26 commentary.

by Dave Walker.

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 26 the Clean Tanker Index popped up to a fix of 539, off a 550 Tuesday high. To acknowledge fundamentals, the PES Philadelphia refinery fire was widely seen as positively affecting product tanker rates. This news, and possibly the index range, was both boosted and tempered by announcements of refinery closure or possible a sale and restart.

Amidst the confusion, our RSI dropped to the threshold of bottoming territory at 34.41 while the MACD took a more positive turn towards its signal-line with the index jump and possible bullishness.

At first glance, the indicator divergences may hint at further index strength outside the high profile news of recent weeks. While the dust settles, we are still watching our 625 – 650 resistance thoughts should the restrained Week 26 action gain momentum.


DIRTY TANKERS

A tight range marked the Dirty Tanker index for Week 26, fixing at 680. Staying in the midst of our Week 15 675 – 700 resistance thoughts, the index kept to a tight 3-point spread to parallel the previous week’s fix.

Our RSI stayed around neutral at 42.02 while the MACD, alone in its bullishness, continued an excursion across the signal line.

Still seeming to have a challenge with our 675 – 700 resistance zone, the Dirty Tankers are under observation for building signs of renewed energy.


Dirty Tankers push into resistance, Clean Tankers pull up. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 25 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 25 the Clean Tanker index bounced back somewhat and fixed at 510, despite our gloomier thoughts of a downward excursion into the 450s. As the index came off a fresh 2019 low, our Week 19 lower 500s support thoughts (that go back to early 2019) appear to be exerting some influence.

Our RSI hung around the neutral zone at 40.00 and the MACD eased its decline to point towards the signal line again, both indicators being annoyingly non-indicating in this more-or-less sideways index.

With a new 2019 low being previously tapped the Clean Tankers still seem a little weak. Any continuance of Week 25’s decent-looking rebound may see some resistance around our 625 – 650 ideas from Week 17, although the index has shown little appetite for such dizzying heights lately.


DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 25 a small gap-up, but tighter range, saw the Dirty Tanker index take a second push into our Week 15 675 – 700 resistance ideas to fix at 679, just off a high of 681.

A rising RSI reached 41.21, still in neutral territory as the MACD made a solid crossing of its signal-line into bullish mode.

We watch with interest to see what strength our 675 – 700 resistance thoughts may have against a rising index, and if the index has enough energy to avoid more sideways motion.


Clean drop, Dirty rise. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 24 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

Taking a dive in Week 24, the Clean Tanker Index fixed at 491 after a 16-point decline. Previously of course, we had opened our big mouth and remarked on the lack of channel break-out signs.

Still in neutral territory, our RSI declined to 41.14, and the MACD happily followed the index and strengthened its decline.

Now eyeballing our gloomier 450 target, we wait to see if the Clean Tankers’ weakness is just a test of our low 500s support thoughts, or a heavier attraction to seasonal lows.


DIRTY TANKERS

A 662 fix marked an upwardly mobile Week 24 for the Dirty Tanker Index. Seemingly taking another tilt at our 675 – 700 resistance, the index took a 17-point surge from a small gap up at the open.

Our RSI reached towards neutral territory, climbing to 37.42. The MACD also took a crook upwards and parked on the signal-line, awaiting a possible excursion into bullish country.

With all the Dirty Tankers’ slightly bullish signs, we await another test of our Week 15 675 – 700 resistance ideas. Another failure may mean a return to the sideways wandering of recent months.


Clean Tankers dither; Dirty Tankers to try again? Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 23 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 23 the Clean Tanker Index gapped down and reached a 515 low early on before recovering to fix at 521. The recent index action seems to be bracketing a sideways channel, with no impetus to break out in either direction visible yet.

Our RSI was basically unchanged, in neutral territory at 43.92 as the MACD drifted down and away from the signal line, both giving possibly weak signs of building strength.

Our Week 20 thoughts of resistance just above present levels appear to have been borne out somewhat, and some support in the mid-to-low 500s is now visible. We mentioned this downside target back in Week 3 of this year. The Clean Tankers having strength enough to rise out of this zone remains to be seen, but it may be building. The 450 area serves as our more pessimistic target if the present support weakens.


DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 23 the Dirty Tanker Index pulled up from its recent retreat after failing to pierce our Week 15 675 – 700 resistance zone . Finding a fix at 643, the index was up 9 points despite touching 632 in mid-week.

Our RSI kept pace with the index, rising slightly above bottoming values to 30.21. The MACD took a turn towards its signal-line, closing on a possible crossing.

Seemingly in channel mode as per our recent observations, are the Dirty Tankers taking a pause before trying for our 675 – 700 resistance again? Too early to tell in our case, and in our usual caution we’re keeping a weather eye on our mid-500s support thoughts from Week 12.

Clean Tankers rise and pause: Dirty Tankers drop. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 22 commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 22 the Clean Tanker Index fixed at 537, showing a very tight 4-point range. Our Week 20 thoughts of upside resistance building around present values may be gaining some credibility, although Week 22’s strong gap-up on open is quite noticeable.

Our RSI climbed through neutrality to 43.53 while the MACD continued to trail off towards the signal-line, weakening in its downtrend.

Our mid-500s support ideas from back in January of this year, and mentioned several times since, have been tested in the last few weeks. Our recent upside resistance target around 550 – 575 may be seeing some acknowledgement with Week 22’s high of 541, but let’s not read too much into the indices during a holiday week. Overall the Clean Tankers may still be gaining strength.


DIRTY TANKERS

Dropping again during Week 22, the Dirty Tanker Index continued to rebound off our 675 – 700 resistance zone and fixed at 636, down another 9 points.

Our RSI dropped further towards bottoming territory at 24.93. The MACD shied away from crossing the signal-line, acknowledging the recent bearishness, but both indicators may be hinting at gathering strength even as the index drops.

The recent index action somewhat confirms our Week 21 thoughts of some sideways motion, as the index takes a trip back to Week 13 / 14 levels and hopefully support around the 2016 and 2017 lows. We’re watching to see if the index is good for another run at our 675 – 700 resistance.


Dirty Tankers pull back; Clean Tankers firming up? Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 20 commentary.

by Dave Walker


CLEAN TANKERS

A 512 fix finished a tight range for the Week 20 Clean Tanker Index, building on our previous consolidation/support thoughts. Skimming a 504 low mid-week however, the index continued to test our mid-to-low 500s support zone.

The RSI rose slightly to 37.61, still diverging from the general downtrend and hinting at possible index strength. The MACD pushed further into negative values, stretching the index bungee-cord and showing little sign of flattening out yet.

With the slight consolidation signs over the past two weeks, the index may be firming up on these lows. Some upside resistance building just above current levels is possible though, if the index continues loitering at these values. Our previous upside target around 625 – 650 may still be ambitious, so we’re keeping a sideways eye on the 400 – 450 range should present support give way.


DIRTY TANKERS

The Dirty Tanker Index fell in Week 20, fixing down at 678 and taking a bite out of previous gains. In line with our 675 – 700 resistance thoughts from Week 15, the index fell away through the rest of the week.

The RSI just reached 33.70 as the MACD also weakened on its path to a bullish signal-line crossing, both indicators still rising but only just.

The Week 20 pullback makes us glance towards our Week 12 support ideas in the mid-500s again, although the overall look of the index and our indicators may hint at some further strength. Another attempt at our 675 – 700 upside resistance zone would be welcome.

Clean Tankers’ light extinguished. Baltic Tanker Indices – Week 18 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

Week 18’s Clean Tanker Index extinguished the faint hope seen over past weeks and steadily declined to a 536 fix, down 45 points on the week. Thumbing its nose at our thoughts of possible recovery, the messy candlestick formation was just that – messy.

The RSI divergence that gave previous hope and seemed to hold the index faded, falling below neutral to 35.71. In turn the MACD resumed its bearish course, reflecting the loss of index strength.

Our 625 – 650 resistance ideas proved too high, with the index turning down in the upper 500s. With the latest move our attention is again on our mid-500s target from Week 15. Some support may develop at or below that zone, at values the Clean Tanker Index held through mid-2018.


DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 18 the Dirty Tanker Index echoed the range seen in the previous week. Fixing up a few points at 645, the index continued to hover just below our 675 – 700 resistance thoughts.

The RSI stayed relatively flat at 18.65, still maintaining a strong bottoming stance. Very slowly closing on the signal line, the MACD also mimicked the sideways travel as the index flattened out.

Well above our Week 12 mid-500s support and holding below our 675 – 700 resistance zone, the Dirty Tankers stayed relatively inert. Some bias to the upside would be welcome, but energy to overcome the inertia hasn’t been seen so far.


Capes & Supras surge. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 17 commentary.

by Dave Walker


HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index decline shrank even further in the 4-day Week 17, showing a very tight 3-point range to fix at 389, almost level with the previous week’s fix. What optimism may be drawn from this is hard to say.

The RSI climbed into divergence, forging up through neutrality and maybe offering further optimism. As with previous weeks the MACD has cruised along almost level, staying just above the signal line since crossing it in Weeks 12-13.

Even with some slight technical optimism, there seems to be little in the way of upward-moving incentive so far. As we watch our lower 300s downside mark, the RSI divergence and slowed downtrend may yet brighten the day for the Handies.


SUPRAMAX

Gapping up almost 20 points at the Week 17 open, the Supramax Index surged almost 30 points to its 780 Friday fix. This puts the index just over the threshold of the 775 – 875 resistance ideas that have been on our radar since Week 7.

The RSI at 54.44 reinforced the index strength while the MACD pulled away from its lean towards the signal line and bullishly followed the rest of the pack.

After casting our chicken bones and testing the wind, the strength of this Supra surge could develop some support around the low 700s, up from our previous 550 – 600 thoughts from Week 15. Let’s see what strength our 775 – 875 resistance ideas may have after showing some muscle back in Week 13.


PANAMAX

A gap up and further strength marked the Panamax Index for Week 17. Fixing at 1186 after a 15-point climb, the progress through the week was steady. The tighter range may indicate some loss of index momentum, but recent strength has so far been on the Panamaxes’ side.

The RSI gained to a strong 57.07 to boost the index as the lagging MACD continued with little wavering to be seen. Back in Week 8 we made noises about possible resistances around the 900 / 975 – 1000 regions, both visible during the recent index climb. Registering as consolidating areas along the way, these points gave the stair-step effect we’ve seen in the Panamaxes before.

The overall strength in the Panamaxes may still have steam, and could see support building in the 975 -1000 zone. Our next resistance target is in the 1350 – 1400 region, although some attraction may still exist around that 975 – 1000 area.


CAPESIZE

For Week 17 the Capesize Index took a more Cape-like surge, with a sizable gap up and fix at 783 after climbing over 200 points. We’re watching with great interest as the index approaches our Week 14 upside resistance target in the 1000 – 1200 range.

The RSI surged with the index, climbing out of bottoming values to reach 29.71 and hopefully further strength. The heavily negative MACD barely crossed the signal line into bullish hopefulness.

While there may be no champagne corks popping yet, Week 17 was a ray of hope amidst the general Capesize uncertainty. Should the index strength continue, our 1000 – 1200 zone resistance thoughts may just be a chart footnote…..hopefully.