$BDRY pushes further. Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF: Week 26 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


A small gap up and a close at 13.15 marked the slow climb in $BDRY for Week 26, with the fund showing some backing from some new-found dry bulk market optimism. Freight Investor Services put it succinctly – “hotter than a billy goat with a blowtorch.”

With the fund’s up-move, our RSI pushed higher to 75.41, the indicator giving further peakish indications even with such a slow steady move upwards. The MACD, just shy of zero values, continued its bullish trend.

The overall bullishness in nearby dry bulk futures has had a positive effect on BDRY as it continues its long, slow push into our $12 – $14 resistance ideas. Should the positivity continue in BDRY, our Week 22 $10.50 – $11.00 support thoughts may consolidate further, giving a decent foundation.


For some insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 26.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 26.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 26.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY

Panamaxes bounce off our support; Capes surge on. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 26 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Week 26 showed a flat Handysize Index, fixing at 442 on a non-existent range. Giving some credence to our Week 20 upside resistance ideas in the lower 400s, the index however paused closer to our Week 21 450 – 475 target zone after its solid gains.

Our RSI trickled down closer to neutral at 45.70, while the MACD took little notice of the pause to continue on in bullish fashion.

With the index midway between possible lower 400s support and our 450 – 475 target, it remains to be seen how the Handysize push-and-pull will work out. Improving fundamental sentiment in the dry bulk sector may be its saving grace.


SUPRAMAX

Another positive move marked Week 26 for the Supramax Index. With a fix at 787 on a decent 31-point move up, the Supras have re-entered our recurring 775 -875 resistance band which has proved a challenge to the index for most of 2019.

Our RSI kept just above the neutral zone at 44.80 as the MACD took a positive turn away from its signal-line, avoiding recent weakness.

It now remains to be seen what strength the index may have to push further into this 775 – 875 resistance. With some of our indicator spreads approaching peakishness, we’re watching the Supras with interest.


PANAMAX

A positive snap-back was seen in Week 26 for the Panamax Index. With a fix at 1286 after a 175-point run, the index took a solid bounce up just above our 975 – 1000 support ideas discussed back in Week 17.

Our RSI stayed in peakish territory with the up-move, while the MACD followed the index and backed away from its path towards the signal-line.

Do the Panamaxes now have enough momentum for another push at our Week 19 1350 – 1400 resistance zone? Possible, with the sudden overall optimism in dry bulk sentiment. Being a cautious bunch however, peakish signs remain for us.


CAPESIZE

Week 26 was another positive one for the Capesize Index. Pushing further away from our Week 20 1800 – 2000 resistance target, which in the Capes’ case was a mere stepping-stone on the chart, the index gapped up off the open and fixed at 2488.

Our RSI continued into peakish values, reaching 93.64. The MACD reached well into positive values with the index exuberance, happily tagging along in its bullishness.

While our indicators point towards rising peakishness, this of course is something the Capes have thumbed their noses at on a semi-regular basis. A tentative 2800 – 3000 target is in our sights for now, but having studiously avoided any Baltics’ news at time of publishing, the index may be there already. Such are the Capes – always poking fun at the pundits and often several steps ahead.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF – Week 26, 2019.

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com


Dirty Tankers meet our resistance; Clean Tankers spring upwards. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 26 commentary.

by Dave Walker.

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 26 the Clean Tanker Index popped up to a fix of 539, off a 550 Tuesday high. To acknowledge fundamentals, the PES Philadelphia refinery fire was widely seen as positively affecting product tanker rates. This news, and possibly the index range, was both boosted and tempered by announcements of refinery closure or possible a sale and restart.

Amidst the confusion, our RSI dropped to the threshold of bottoming territory at 34.41 while the MACD took a more positive turn towards its signal-line with the index jump and possible bullishness.

At first glance, the indicator divergences may hint at further index strength outside the high profile news of recent weeks. While the dust settles, we are still watching our 625 – 650 resistance thoughts should the restrained Week 26 action gain momentum.


DIRTY TANKERS

A tight range marked the Dirty Tanker index for Week 26, fixing at 680. Staying in the midst of our Week 15 675 – 700 resistance thoughts, the index kept to a tight 3-point spread to parallel the previous week’s fix.

Our RSI stayed around neutral at 42.02 while the MACD, alone in its bullishness, continued an excursion across the signal line.

Still seeming to have a challenge with our 675 – 700 resistance zone, the Dirty Tankers are under observation for building signs of renewed energy.


Capes push through target; Panamax decline slows. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 25 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index continued its rise in Week 25, increasing its range and posting an 18-point surge to fix at 440.

Our RSI eased its decline and pulled up a little to 50.90 while the MACD steepened its climb, rising away from the signal line.

As our original low-400s upside resistance appears to weaken, our thoughts of support-building below present levels and our Week 21 upside target in the 450-475 range may come into play.


SUPRAMAX

Taking a bounce up off our 700 – 715 support ideas, the Supramax Index fixed at 751 for Week 25. After our downside bias thoughts in Week 20 were somewhat confirmed, the low-700s support seems to have continued the sideways channeling of the Supras.

Our RSI rose to 45.38, possibly leaving neutrality behind as the MACD pulled slightly away from a bearish signal-line intersection for now.

Once again we’re watching our 775 – 875 upside resistance, a level that we’ve been eyeing since Week 7. It remains to be seen if there is still strength in this persistent zone of resistance, which the Supras have turned away from twice this year so far.


PANAMAX

For Week 25 the Panamax Index decline slowed its momentum, tightening its range and fixing at 1096, as it retreated from our 1350 – 1400 resistance.

Our RSI leveled off somewhat to a still-potent 63.78, perhaps confirming the momentum-loss as the MACD continued to decline with the index, closing on its signal-line.

Our Week 17 thoughts of support in the 975 – 1000 range are now coming into play as the Panamaxes’ decline from our 1350 – 1400 resistance zone slows. On the threshold of that range now, let’s see if enough support builds to keep the index afloat.


CAPESIZE

For Week 25, after a brief pause at Week 20’s 1800 – 2000 resistance target, the Capesize Index surged slightly through that zone and fixed at 2278.

Our RSI , easing off in its climb, reached a peakish 83.52. The MACD rose well into positive values, curving slightly away from the signal line with the index boost. A small observation – of course these indicators are something the Capes pay scant attention to (like many others?). However, the last time our RSI showed these values was at the first index peak after recovery from the lows of 2016.

From back in Week 20, we’re still watching our 1000 – 1200 support ideas in case of any weakness in the index. As we mentioned last week, our 1800 – 2000 target could act as a stepping stone for more index progress, but it remains to be seen if there is any attraction left for this target.

A rising tide lifts all boats as they say – ‘they” in this case being Brazilian iron ore miners, to whom the Capesize bungee cord is well attached. Of course, when the iron ore industry sneezes, the Capes come down with a cold – stay tuned. (See? We do mention fundamentals now and then…)


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF : Week 25 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


Week 25 saw $BDRY continued its tentative push, moving a little more into our $12 – $14 resistance range to close the week at 12.69.

Our RSI retreated to a still-strong 66.00 with a MACD on the threshold of positive values as BDRY very gently trended upwards.

As before, we still have the impression of $BDRY building on a base of support just below existing values. We tentatively marked possible support around $10.50 – $11.00 back in Week 22. A few of our indicators appear to hint at underlying strength, although continued peakish signs and stubborn upside resistance is cause for caution.


For some insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on Supramax, Panamax and Capesize positions.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 25.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 25.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 25.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY

Capes pause at our target, Handies build further. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 24 commentary.

by Dave Walker


HANDYSIZE

Rising to a 420 fix for Week 24, the Handysize Index pushed further into our low-400s resistance ideas.

Our RSI dropped a little more to 49.69, not far above neutrality. The MACD steepened its bullish climb, reaching further from the signal line.

Continued strength in the Handies had us looking at a 450 – 475 target in Week 21 and may still be in the cards with the gathering index strength. Our Week 21 ideas of support building just below current levels may also be borne out, but we’ll see.


SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index gave us a flat spot in Week 24, spending its time in a tight 7-point range to fix at 716. The index action gave a nod to our 700-725 support ideas from Week 20, and our more recent thoughts in the 700 – 715 range.

Our RSI eased its fall as it entered neutral values, reaching 39.37. The MACD continued almost level, converging on its signal-line.

With the Supras pausing around our 710 – 725 support thoughts from Week 23 , there’s a chance the index may channel sideways between that area and our 775 – 875 resistance zone. Stay tuned and be on guard for index weakness in these volatile times.


PANAMAX

The Panamax Index continued its fall in Week 24 with an opening gap down and 56-point fill to an 1131 fix, still retreating from our Week 19 1350-1400 resistance and confirming our thoughts of peakishness.

Our RSI reached 65.82, still in the peakish zone for the Panamaxes while the MACD hooked towards the signal-line, weakening with the index decline.

We’re keeping an eye on our Week 17 support thoughts around 975 – 1000 as the Panamaxes fall away, and looking for any signs of braking action on the index.


CAPESIZE

Week 24 in the Capesize Index chart gave us a dark “hanging” candlestick, the index pausing at the bottom end of our Week 20 1800 – 2000 upside resistance target to fix at, yes, 1800.

Once again our RSI reached further into peakish territory for the Capes, easing slightly as it climbed to 82.21. The MACD eased very slightly in its rise, still keeping to the bullish side of the signal-line.

While watching our previous consolidation point around 1000 – 1200 for index pull-backs (note the small hiccup around Weeks 18-19), the Week 24 pause could be a stair-step that boosts the Capes further. That is, unless our 1800 – 2000 resistance zone displays further strength, given some of our peaky indicators.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF: Week 24 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


For Week 24, $BDRY closed up slightly at 12.39 and at first glance this ETF has come across as a real yawner over the past few weeks. However, a closer look reveals some incrementally higher closes as the fund sneaks slowly into our $12 – $14 resistance zone.

Pushing ever higher, our RSI at 71.71 reached a peakish-looking value. Compare this to Week 18’s RSI of 38.70 at a $12.25 close, hence our yawns. The MACD stayed at an upward snail’s pace, just shy of positive values yet again.

Is $BDRY building a foundation here? Bringing up Week 18’s commentary yet again, we muttered something about consolidation around present values. $BDRY may be experiencing some tempering effects from lack-lustre Supra and Panamax forward curves being offset by Capesize exuberance. Overall the impression is of BDRY gingerly building support just below current levels, offering a welcome buffer against those volatile indices. However a weather eye will also be kept on peakish signals as we tread carefully on eggshell-like support.


Week 24 Baltic Supramax Index


Week 24 Baltic Panamax Index


Week 24 Baltic Capesize Index


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY


Panamaxes retreat from our resistance zone; Capes surge. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 23 commentary.

by Dave Walker


HANDYSIZE

For Week 23 the Handysize Index pushed into our low-400s resistance thoughts, rising steadily to a 412 fix.

Our RSI dropped a little further to a still-strong 55.19 and the MACD rose further away from the signal-line, lifted by the index action.

A rise from the recent shallow trough appears possible given the general mood of the index, although the Handies are now into our upside resistance thoughts from Week 20. However the overall strength may be there to push further. Should index strength continue to build, we have a tentative upside target in the 475 – 500 area.


SUPRAMAX

Still retreating from our 675 – 775 resistance zone, in Week 23 the Supramax Index fell a further 29 points to a 719 fix.

Our RSI declined towards neutrality at 44.68 while the MACD took a slight diversion towards the signal-line and bearishness.

All may not be lost for the Supras however, with a hint of possible resistance building just below present levels. Weeks 15 – 16’s turning point around 710 – 715 may be an area to watch for support, and the Supras are on that threshold now.


PANAMAX

Retreating to a 1213 fix for Week 23, the Panamax Index stalled and fell away from our Week 19 1350 – 1400 upside resistance target. Reinforcing our previous thoughts of peakiness in the index, the Panamaxes took a 112-point drop.

Our RSI, still in peakish values, declined to 75.07 as the MACD took an abrupt pause and flattened out with the index drop.

At first glance, the index drop seems somewhat stronger than the possible consolidation mentioned in our Week 21 comments. If the Panamax weakness builds, we’re watching our Week 17 target in the 975 – 1000 zone for support.


CAPESIZE

For Week 23 the Capesize Index boldly reached into our Week 20 1800 – 2000 upside resistance ideas and fixed at 1862, casting shade on our previous mutterings of slowing momentum. The index may be mimicking the action around our 1000 – 1200 resistance ideas from the dark days of Week 14. That target served as a mere ladder-rung for the Capes in Weeks 18 – 19.

Our RSI reached well into its peaking zone at 79.40 while the MACD grew more bullish, slightly diverging from the signal-line.

As before we’re cautious around this Week 20 1800 – 2000 target, even with peakish-looking indicators. The Capes have thumbed their noses at us before and surged to greater heights, (or deeper lows) with resistance and support targets often barely-acknowledged stepping stones in this volatile index. All the same, we’re watching closely now that the index has entered our resistance target zone.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF : Week 23 commentary.

by Dave Walker

$BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


Still nudging at our $12 -$14 resistance zone from Week 18, $BDRY reached a high of $12.65 but closed off the week at $12.30.

Our RSI kept climbing, reaching 60.54 as $BDRY made barely noticeable highs. The MACD almost reached its zero point, both indicators still showing some strength although the RSI causes a little peakish concern.

As $BDRY continues to poke at our Week 18 resistance ideas, our thoughts of possible support building around $10.50 – $11.00 are still there. A glance at last week’s Baltic Shipping Index charts (see below) shows a drop-off in the Supramax and Panamax sectors while the Capesize category surged, tempering the others’ weakness. BDRY’s sideways travel may linger a while.


Week 23 Baltic Supramax Shipping Index


Week 23 Baltic Panamax Shipping Index


Week 23 Baltic Capesize Shipping Index


*Disclaimer: Superior Maritime does not hold any stock in $BDRY.


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