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As we head off to the non-internet Canadian wilderness, we wish you a safe and happy summer. We’ll be catching up with you and dry bulk shipping again soon. Stay tuned to superiormar.com and @SuperiorMar on Twitter – we’ll be in touch.
BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures*, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com
As $BDRY approached our previously-mentioned $18.00 target zone, the fund took a slight dip early in Week 29 before climbing further to close at $17.57. The Tuesday dip and Wednesday indecision in $BDRY might be all we’ll see of our tentative resistance target.
Our RSI cruised along in peaking territory as the MACD finally reached into positive values, with some of our other indicators agreeing with the RSI and suggesting some type of consolidation is due.
Of course, some mere technical indication of peakishness can be easily brushed off by general market sentiment, and perhaps that’s what we have with dry bulk shipping at the moment. With Week 29’s slight pause possibly suggesting support in the $16.50 – $17.00 area, we wait to see if our old $12 – $14 support/resistance zone becomes just a distant memory.
Finally showing less reluctance, the Handysize index surged with its cousins in Week 28, gapping up and rising to a 472 close. The index is now within our Week 21 450 – 475 resistance thoughts.
Our RSI popped up strongly to peaking levels at 81.08 as the MACD closed on its zero point, angling away from the signal line.
Whether our peakish signals hold sway or not remains to be seen in the face of the dry bulk surge. Will the Handies follow suit and use the 450 – 475 band as a stepping stone or will they consolidate? Curious eyes are watching.
Another gap-up and 50-point surge marked Week 28 for the Supramax index, showing a wider range and fixing at 879. Our Week 7 775 – 875 resistance zone has now been covered by the Supras in this latest run at the barrier.
Our RSI flirted with peak values, rising to 67.89 as the MACD widened its gap from the signal line in its bullish climb.
With the Supras now at the upper end of our 775 – 875 resistance thoughts the peakish-looking signs are there, but as with the other indices the general dry bulk sentiment is positive for now. As before, we watch for possible consolidation around this area, or at least a little rest.
Our RSI stayed in peaking country at 79.87 with a MACD that took on a near-vertical plane, staying not far from the signal line.
The rapid index movement makes possible targets hard to pin down as we plod through the charts, but a 2300 upside target may not be out of the picture for the Panamaxes. Our previous 1700 – 1750 target where the index paused briefly may become consolidation support should peakish signs take over.
A positive Week 28 for the Cape Index was marked by some slight weakness mid-week before rising to fix at 3541.
Our RSI pulled back very slightly to 98.17 (let’s face it, it didn’t have much room to grow) and the MACD stayed on its steeper divergence from the signal line.
With the Cape index now regaining similar heights to mid-2018, what’s next? We’re still watching our old 1800 – 2000 resistance zone (weak resistance at that) as possible support in a Capesize consolidation. A 3800 – 4000 target on is our horizon. The slight mid-Week 28 pause in the uptrend may be a tell, but we won’t grasp at that straw. The Capes will always humble their observers…
In a near-imitation of the previous week, Week 27 for the Clean Tanker index was a quiet one, seeing a fix at 542 on a limited range. The index loitered around the level of its recent jump amid speculation over US East Coast refineryhiccups.
Meanwhile, back at the chart screen, our RSI dropped further to a bottomish-looking value of 23.14. The MACD, still influenced by the recent index jump, continued pushing towards a bullish signal-line crossing.
The Clean Tankers continue to give the impression of building strength even as the index rests for the moment. Our 625 – 650 resistance target is still on our radar however, and we wait to see what influence it may have.
Calling a retreat for Week 27 the Dirty Tanker index dropped almost 30 points. Turning back once more from our 675 – 700 resistance ideas from back in Week 15, the index declined steadily to fix at 650.
As the MACD weakened slightly after its bullish signal-line crossing, the interesting note was our RSI which continued upwards to hit 50.37. Too early to call a possible divergence, all the same there may be the hint of underlying strength in the index.
Whether possible underlying strength will boost the Dirty Tanker index is a mere guess at this point, but we continue to watch our 675 – 700 resistance zone which has proved resilient so far. When weakness has set in, support has been around 625 – 650 in the recent sideways motion, but watching for developing RSI divergence may be worthwhile.
Our still-peaky RSI was little changed at 93.27, reinforcing our slowing momentum thoughts. A now-positive MACD charged bullishly onward, perhaps lagging too far to be relevant
For now our resistance target appears to be in reach, but the slowed index momentum is noticeable. It’s hard for us to ignore the signs of peakishness in the Panamaxes. However, as previously mentioned, our 1350 – 1400 target may become a consolidation zone rather than hard resistance.
The Capesize Index rose to a 1620 fix for Week 22, but not before touching a high of 1659 mid-week. This left us a small upper wick on Week 22’s candlestick, hinting at possible momentum loss.
Our RSI pushed further into peaky territory for the Capes, reaching 72.07. The MACD continued bullishly, pulling away from the signal line with the recent index momentum.
With our 1800 – 2000 resistance target from Week 20 in sight and some of our indicators looking a little peaky, the head-scratching begins ( well, maybe more intense head-scratching). With possible shrinking momentum, do the Capes have the strength to treat this zone as a consolidation step and move on? (Note our 1000 – 1200 target from Week 19’s commentary ) On the other hand, are the Capes looking to pull back? The plot thickens…
$BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com
Week 20 saw $BDRY retreat slightly, in line with our $12 – $14 resistance ideas, to close at $11.84, down from a $12.41 open.
Our RSI took an interesting streak upwards to 55.04 while the MACD approached positive values, although weakening a little from the Week 19 retreat. The continued charge of the RSI could suggest some building strength, but the overall feel hints at possible consolidation as momentum fades.
It remains to be seen if $BDRY is taking a rest or will move on to greater things. A quick glance at the weekly Baltic Capesize Index below (50% BDRY weighting) shows a slight loss of momentum, although within a generally positive Week 20.
Downside support may still be in the $9.00 range for $BDRY, with unconfirmed support possibly building around current levels. Volatility in dry bulk shipping indices being a fact of life (there, we’ve given a nod to those nasty fundamentals again), we can always cast a hopeful eye at the iron ore price and China’s lowered port stockpiles.
Week 20 Baltic Capesize Shipping Index:
Week 20 Baltic Panamax Shipping Index:
*Disclaimer: Superior Maritime does not hold any stock in $BDRY.
Continuing its slow fade in Week 18, the Handysize Index wandered through a tight 4-point range to fix at 382. In a slowing downtrend the Handies displayed some uncertainty as the index weakened.
The RSI continued to diverge, gaining to 48.20 and possibly hinting at weaker bearishness. As before the MACD tracked horizontally, staying just above its signal line and resisting a bearish line-crossing. However, the general index weakness may overcome the indicators regardless.
Back in Week 15 we discussed the Handies’ retreat from our upper-400s resistance and a slowing downtrend above our lower-300s support target. We’re still watching the lower 300s for potential support should the weakness grow stronger, but keeping an eye on the diverging RSI just in case.
Retreating slightly from the previous two weeks’ climbing, the Week 18 Supramax Index declined steadily to a 752 fix. Shading most of the previous week’s gains, our 775 – 875 resistance zone from Week 7 and Week 13 appears to have flexed its muscle once more.
The RSI climbed further to 61.11, flirting with peakish levels for the Supras. The MACD wavered a little, easing its upward slope as the index weakened.
It remains to be seen if our Week 17 low-700s support ideas will have any strength, and if the index attempts another push into the 775 – 875 region. As weakness returns and the RSI approaches peakish territory, we’re watching that area with interest.
Staying in a tight 3-point range the Week 18 Panamax Index barely registered on the chart, fixing up a single point on the week at 1190. Our thoughts of support and/or attraction around 975 – 1000 may be coming to bear as the index momentum slows again.
The RSI approached peaky ground for the Panamaxes, settling at 73.97. Whether the tight range and high RSI indicate a loss of momentum in the index remains to be seen. The lagging MACD stayed blindly bullish in its course with no hint of weakness yet.
The slight fizzle in the Panamaxes has us watching our 975 – 1000 support ideas once more. A less steep climb could create a less peakish RSI, however the overall feel seems to lean towards index weakness. Another small consolidation step to maintain index strength would be a welcome sight.
A gap up at the open marked the continued surge in the Capesize Index for Week 18, fixing up overall at 1290 after falling from a 1420 high. The index solidly entered our Week 14 resistance target of 1000 – 1200 but then pulled back just in time to lend our ideas some credibility.
The RSI rose into its neutral zone at 43.31, while the still-negative MACD reinforced its bullish signal-line crossing with the index move.
Our 1000 – 1200 resistance thoughts from Week 14 are visible as a sizable blip on the chart, so this loss of momentum came late in the week and may still hold some sway. Some consolidation for the index to build on would be a good thing, but should weakness set in harder the recent heavy lows are too close for comfort.
Why addBreakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF to our Baltic Dry Index commentaries? Well, we’d like to dig deeper into shipping through this ETF tied to dry bulk freight futures. At just over a year since its inception, the fund focuses on the nearest quarter in dry bulk forward freight agreements. Will our observation of BDRY offer some noise-free insights amid the flood of information out there? Please join us as we explore*.
$BDRY profile: ” The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight. ” Source: drybulketf.com
The Breakwave ETF continued on its recent recovery march to close Week 18 at 12.25. As the Baltic Capesize Index was striking lows below 100 in Week 14, BDRY had seen support just above the $9.00 area since early March.
At 37.90 the RSI approached neutral ground, having steadily climbed from heavily bottoming territory in recent weeks. The MACD followed on bullishly after a solid crossing of the signal line a couple of weeks ago.
After careful shuffling of our Tarot cards and casting of chicken-bones, BDRY may be pushing into our upside resistance target of $12 – $14. This region served as wavering support through late 2018 until weakness took over in early 2019. The Week 18 move in this latest recovery attempt gapped up at the open but showed little progress thereafter, hinting at possible slower momentum. Should BDRY push further through these $12 – $14 resistance thoughts we may still see some consolidation around this zone.
As mentioned above BDRY has a 50% weighting towards the Capesize FFAs, and the Baltic Capesize Index itself has seen recent fragility. Even as that index surges (Week 18 Capesize & Panamax charts below), we’ll keep a jaundiced eye on that previous $9.00 support in BDRY.
*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY
The Handysize Index decline shrank even further in the 4-day Week 17, showing a very tight 3-point range to fix at 389, almost level with the previous week’s fix. What optimism may be drawn from this is hard to say.
The RSI climbed into divergence, forging up through neutrality and maybe offering further optimism. As with previous weeks the MACD has cruised along almost level, staying just above the signal line since crossing it in Weeks 12-13.
Even with some slight technical optimism, there seems to be little in the way of upward-moving incentive so far. As we watch our lower 300s downside mark, the RSI divergence and slowed downtrend may yet brighten the day for the Handies.
Gapping up almost 20 points at the Week 17 open, the Supramax Index surged almost 30 points to its 780 Friday fix. This puts the index just over the threshold of the 775 – 875 resistance ideas that have been on our radar since Week 7.
The RSI at 54.44 reinforced the index strength while the MACD pulled away from its lean towards the signal line and bullishly followed the rest of the pack.
After casting our chicken bones and testing the wind, the strength of this Supra surge could develop some support around the low 700s, up from our previous 550 – 600 thoughts from Week 15. Let’s see what strength our 775 – 875 resistance ideas may have after showing some muscle back in Week 13.
A gap up and further strength marked the Panamax Index for Week 17. Fixing at 1186 after a 15-point climb, the progress through the week was steady. The tighter range may indicate some loss of index momentum, but recent strength has so far been on the Panamaxes’ side.
The RSI gained to a strong 57.07 to boost the index as the lagging MACD continued with little wavering to be seen. Back in Week 8 we made noises about possible resistances around the 900 / 975 – 1000 regions, both visible during the recent index climb. Registering as consolidating areas along the way, these points gave the stair-step effect we’ve seen in the Panamaxes before.
The overall strength in the Panamaxes may still have steam, and could see support building in the 975 -1000 zone. Our next resistance target is in the 1350 – 1400 region, although some attraction may still exist around that 975 – 1000 area.
For Week 17 the Capesize Index took a more Cape-like surge, with a sizable gap up and fix at 783 after climbing over 200 points. We’re watching with great interest as the index approaches our Week 14 upside resistance target in the 1000 – 1200 range.
The RSI surged with the index, climbing out of bottoming values to reach 29.71 and hopefully further strength. The heavily negative MACD barely crossed the signal line into bullish hopefulness.
While there may be no champagne corks popping yet, Week 17 was a ray of hope amidst the general Capesize uncertainty. Should the index strength continue, our 1000 – 1200 zone resistance thoughts may just be a chart footnote…..hopefully.