$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF: Week 30 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures*, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


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For Week 30 $BDRY confirmed our upside $18.00 tentative resistance target and spent the week consolidating. So far $BDRY seems to have some support from our Week 29 $16.50 – $17.00 ideas, with the fund closing the week at $16.59.

Our RSI retreated with the consolidation to 85.52, still in quite high territory for BDRY. The MACD carried on climbing, yet to acknowledge the fund’s pause.

It may be early days yet, but the pause in $BDRY has us casting an eye over our old $12 – $14 resistance/support zone as BDRY gingerly finds its way amongst weakening dry bulk futures markets.


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Baltic Supramax Index, Week 30 2019.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 30 2019.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 30 2019.


For insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY.


Dry bulk numbers climb….with warning signs? Baltic Dry Indices: Week 29 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Taking another surge for Week 29, the Handysize Index rose 20 points to a 492 fix. Taking a cue from the other dry bulk indices, the Handies pushed through our 450 – 475 resistance ideas from Week 21.

Reaching hard into peakish territory (Yes, we’re repeating ourselves…), our RSI touched 93.22. The MACD closed on its zero point, both indicators giving some weight to our thoughts of returning index stamina.

Whether there’s been a little index over-reach and our 450 – 475 zone turns into support is up for discussion, but the Handies spent the week climbing without a pause. We could look back at Week 26’s chart and note a slight nod to consolidation. Have the Handies found their footing and a stepping-stone? Stay tuned.


SUPRAMAX

Week 29 gave the Supramax index the largest surge since early 2019. With a near-100 point run to its 982 fix, the index never paused around our old 775 – 875 resistance for a rest.

At the risk of repeating ourselves (too late you say?…), our RSI tapped 79.78 in its excursion through peak values, and the MACD journeyed further into the positive to reach 6.66. (Don’t read anything into that number…) An overall topping view is creeping into our thoughts, but positive dry bulk sentiment could carry the day.

With all the peakish signs despite the sentiment, even grumpy old observers like us have a tentative 1100 target for the index. It’s possible our long-standing 775 – 875 resistance band may become support as the Supras continue climbing.


PANAMAX

For Week 29 the Panamax index broke highs not seen since late 2013 and pushed into values not seen in almost 10 years. The 2170 fix came after a gap up at the open and steady rise through the week to close on our 2300 target.

Is our RSI showing peaky signs? Many of our comments repeat those thoughts, but there it is at 84.83 with the lagging MACD in full runaway bull mode.

After the previous pause and slight nod to our Week 27 1700 – 1750 target, there may be support building in that same zone. Our tentative upside resistance target in the 2300 region could see some testing..


CAPESIZE

A gap up and fix at 4379 marked Week 29 for the Capesize index, with a near-1800 point surge early in the week being tempered by a slower rise to the fix.

Our RSI pushed at maximum value in its peakish journey, seeing 98.48. The MACD steepened its rise away from the signal line as the index continued to cruise along at topping values for several of our indicators.

The Capes bounded up to our 3800 – 4000 target right off the bat in Week 29, so we won’t claim any foresight there. The index’s slow rise thereafter may be telling, however. With our old 1800 – 2000 target ideas as possible support, our binoculars are focused for any building weakness. The Capes, of course, may pay little heed to such misgivings.


$BDRY pauses…..slightly. Breakwave DryBulk ETF : Week 29 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures*, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


As $BDRY approached our previously-mentioned $18.00 target zone, the fund took a slight dip early in Week 29 before climbing further to close at $17.57. The Tuesday dip and Wednesday indecision in $BDRY might be all we’ll see of our tentative resistance target.

Our RSI cruised along in peaking territory as the MACD finally reached into positive values, with some of our other indicators agreeing with the RSI and suggesting some type of consolidation is due.

Of course, some mere technical indication of peakishness can be easily brushed off by general market sentiment, and perhaps that’s what we have with dry bulk shipping at the moment. With Week 29’s slight pause possibly suggesting support in the $16.50 – $17.00 area, we wait to see if our old $12 – $14 support/resistance zone becomes just a distant memory.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 29 2019.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 29 2019.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 29 2019.


Dry bulk numbers climb….with warning signs? See our Baltic Dry Indices: Week 29 commentary at https://superiormar.com/


*For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


Behold the flying index: Baltic Dry Indices: Week 28 commentary. #drybulk #shipping #maritime #bdi

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Finally showing less reluctance, the Handysize index surged with its cousins in Week 28, gapping up and rising to a 472 close. The index is now within our Week 21 450 – 475 resistance thoughts.

Our RSI popped up strongly to peaking levels at 81.08 as the MACD closed on its zero point, angling away from the signal line.

Whether our peakish signals hold sway or not remains to be seen in the face of the dry bulk surge. Will the Handies follow suit and use the 450 – 475 band as a stepping stone or will they consolidate? Curious eyes are watching.


SUPRAMAX

Another gap-up and 50-point surge marked Week 28 for the Supramax index, showing a wider range and fixing at 879. Our Week 7 775 – 875 resistance zone has now been covered by the Supras in this latest run at the barrier.

Our RSI flirted with peak values, rising to 67.89 as the MACD widened its gap from the signal line in its bullish climb.

With the Supras now at the upper end of our 775 – 875 resistance thoughts the peakish-looking signs are there, but as with the other indices the general dry bulk sentiment is positive for now. As before, we watch for possible consolidation around this area, or at least a little rest.


PANAMAX

Going from strength to strength, the Panamax index gapped up and hit 1945 after a 250-point surge. Our tentative upside target of 1700 – 1750 registered as a mere pause earlier in the week.

Our RSI stayed in peaking country at 79.87 with a MACD that took on a near-vertical plane, staying not far from the signal line.

The rapid index movement makes possible targets hard to pin down as we plod through the charts, but a 2300 upside target may not be out of the picture for the Panamaxes. Our previous 1700 – 1750 target where the index paused briefly may become consolidation support should peakish signs take over.


CAPESIZE

A positive Week 28 for the Cape Index was marked by some slight weakness mid-week before rising to fix at 3541.

Our RSI pulled back very slightly to 98.17 (let’s face it, it didn’t have much room to grow) and the MACD stayed on its steeper divergence from the signal line.

With the Cape index now regaining similar heights to mid-2018, what’s next? We’re still watching our old 1800 – 2000 resistance zone (weak resistance at that) as possible support in a Capesize consolidation. A 3800 – 4000 target on is our horizon. The slight mid-Week 28 pause in the uptrend may be a tell, but we won’t grasp at that straw. The Capes will always humble their observers…


Fund climbs with dry bulk shipping surge. $BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF: Week 28 commentary.


For insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.



Capes, Panamaxes soar – Handies & Supras tag along. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 27 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

In Week 27 the Handysize index rose off the flat previous week to fix at 448. With the Handies seeming so reluctant, the overall boost across the Baltic complex dragged the index along with it. A slight slackness early on was cancelled out by a steady climb through the rest of the week.

Our RSI wandered down to just above neutral at 44.59 as the MACD, steadily bullish, continued creeping towards positive values.

Knocking on the door of our 450 – 475 resistance ideas from Week 21, we wait to see if the reluctance in the Handies becomes more pronounced, or if the index steps up and moves on to greater heights.


SUPRAMAX

Another gap up at open and surge to an 820 fix marked the Supramax index for Week 27. Well within our 775 – 875 resistance band now, the index rode the general dry bulk surge.

Our RSI continued to show decent strength, building to 50.89 while the MACD rose in bullish fashion, both indicators hinting at some continued index strength remaining.

With some of our other indicators showing peakish signs, we’re watching the Supras for another consolidation around our 775 – 875 resistance thoughts. With the general optimistic sentiment in dry bulk these days, a stepping-stone effect might be seen in this index.


PANAMAX

An impressive surge was seen in the Week 27 Panamax index, with a near-350 point jump to fix at 1665. Continuing the bounce off our Week 17 975 – 1000 support thoughts, the Panamaxes cut solidly through our 1350 – 1400 resistance ideas with barely a pause and put most technical indicators in our arsenal to shame.

Our RSI continued to curve back into peakish Panamax territory, while the MACD latched onto the up-move and was boosted well into positive values.

With the massive rise in dry bulk positive sentiment, Panamax owners may be enjoying a little sunlight. The latest move could turn our 1350 – 1400 resistance target into support as the index moves on. We have a tentative upside target around 1700 – 1750 which the index may have reached already, if we only dare look.


CAPESIZE

A heavy upward surge brought the Capesize index to a 3346 fix for Week 27, continuing its surge after giving a passing nod to our 1800 – 2000 resistance target from Week 20. For the moment, all the fundamental factors at play in iron ore and coal movement have put paid to we simple followers of scrawled lines on a chart.

Still at peakish values, our RSI hit 98.13 with a MACD that sailed happily along with the index, well clear of its signal line.

A target for the Capes? Well may you ask. At this level of volatility, the Capes are usually well ahead of any mere technical indicator. As we vainly hang on to our charts, our 1800 – 2000 zone may become support for this latest move with the possibility that the index may consolidate around present levels.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk #ETF: Week 27 commentary.


For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk #ETF: Week 27 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


Taking a strong leap to close at $15.02, $BDRY gained strength in Week 27 with the surge of optimistic sentiment in dry bulk shipping.

The MACD rode along with the upward wave, finally reaching past its zero point into the positive as the RSI pushed yet further into peakish country at 96.30.

With this gap-up and strong surge we haven’t said goodbye to our $12 – $14 resistance ideas from Week 18 yet, although a continued strong showing by $BDRY may consolidate and turn this zone into support. Some consolidation would calm our indicators down a little and possibly lead to another step in the dry bulk stairway. For now, let’s enjoy the ride.


For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


Baltic Dry Indices: Week 27 commentary.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 27 2019.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 27 2019.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 27 2019.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY.


Panamaxes bounce off our support; Capes surge on. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 26 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Week 26 showed a flat Handysize Index, fixing at 442 on a non-existent range. Giving some credence to our Week 20 upside resistance ideas in the lower 400s, the index however paused closer to our Week 21 450 – 475 target zone after its solid gains.

Our RSI trickled down closer to neutral at 45.70, while the MACD took little notice of the pause to continue on in bullish fashion.

With the index midway between possible lower 400s support and our 450 – 475 target, it remains to be seen how the Handysize push-and-pull will work out. Improving fundamental sentiment in the dry bulk sector may be its saving grace.


SUPRAMAX

Another positive move marked Week 26 for the Supramax Index. With a fix at 787 on a decent 31-point move up, the Supras have re-entered our recurring 775 -875 resistance band which has proved a challenge to the index for most of 2019.

Our RSI kept just above the neutral zone at 44.80 as the MACD took a positive turn away from its signal-line, avoiding recent weakness.

It now remains to be seen what strength the index may have to push further into this 775 – 875 resistance. With some of our indicator spreads approaching peakishness, we’re watching the Supras with interest.


PANAMAX

A positive snap-back was seen in Week 26 for the Panamax Index. With a fix at 1286 after a 175-point run, the index took a solid bounce up just above our 975 – 1000 support ideas discussed back in Week 17.

Our RSI stayed in peakish territory with the up-move, while the MACD followed the index and backed away from its path towards the signal-line.

Do the Panamaxes now have enough momentum for another push at our Week 19 1350 – 1400 resistance zone? Possible, with the sudden overall optimism in dry bulk sentiment. Being a cautious bunch however, peakish signs remain for us.


CAPESIZE

Week 26 was another positive one for the Capesize Index. Pushing further away from our Week 20 1800 – 2000 resistance target, which in the Capes’ case was a mere stepping-stone on the chart, the index gapped up off the open and fixed at 2488.

Our RSI continued into peakish values, reaching 93.64. The MACD reached well into positive values with the index exuberance, happily tagging along in its bullishness.

While our indicators point towards rising peakishness, this of course is something the Capes have thumbed their noses at on a semi-regular basis. A tentative 2800 – 3000 target is in our sights for now, but having studiously avoided any Baltics’ news at time of publishing, the index may be there already. Such are the Capes – always poking fun at the pundits and often several steps ahead.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF – Week 26, 2019.

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com


Capes push through target; Panamax decline slows. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 25 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index continued its rise in Week 25, increasing its range and posting an 18-point surge to fix at 440.

Our RSI eased its decline and pulled up a little to 50.90 while the MACD steepened its climb, rising away from the signal line.

As our original low-400s upside resistance appears to weaken, our thoughts of support-building below present levels and our Week 21 upside target in the 450-475 range may come into play.


SUPRAMAX

Taking a bounce up off our 700 – 715 support ideas, the Supramax Index fixed at 751 for Week 25. After our downside bias thoughts in Week 20 were somewhat confirmed, the low-700s support seems to have continued the sideways channeling of the Supras.

Our RSI rose to 45.38, possibly leaving neutrality behind as the MACD pulled slightly away from a bearish signal-line intersection for now.

Once again we’re watching our 775 – 875 upside resistance, a level that we’ve been eyeing since Week 7. It remains to be seen if there is still strength in this persistent zone of resistance, which the Supras have turned away from twice this year so far.


PANAMAX

For Week 25 the Panamax Index decline slowed its momentum, tightening its range and fixing at 1096, as it retreated from our 1350 – 1400 resistance.

Our RSI leveled off somewhat to a still-potent 63.78, perhaps confirming the momentum-loss as the MACD continued to decline with the index, closing on its signal-line.

Our Week 17 thoughts of support in the 975 – 1000 range are now coming into play as the Panamaxes’ decline from our 1350 – 1400 resistance zone slows. On the threshold of that range now, let’s see if enough support builds to keep the index afloat.


CAPESIZE

For Week 25, after a brief pause at Week 20’s 1800 – 2000 resistance target, the Capesize Index surged slightly through that zone and fixed at 2278.

Our RSI , easing off in its climb, reached a peakish 83.52. The MACD rose well into positive values, curving slightly away from the signal line with the index boost. A small observation – of course these indicators are something the Capes pay scant attention to (like many others?). However, the last time our RSI showed these values was at the first index peak after recovery from the lows of 2016.

From back in Week 20, we’re still watching our 1000 – 1200 support ideas in case of any weakness in the index. As we mentioned last week, our 1800 – 2000 target could act as a stepping stone for more index progress, but it remains to be seen if there is any attraction left for this target.

A rising tide lifts all boats as they say – ‘they” in this case being Brazilian iron ore miners, to whom the Capesize bungee cord is well attached. Of course, when the iron ore industry sneezes, the Capes come down with a cold – stay tuned. (See? We do mention fundamentals now and then…)


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF : Week 25 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


Week 25 saw $BDRY continued its tentative push, moving a little more into our $12 – $14 resistance range to close the week at 12.69.

Our RSI retreated to a still-strong 66.00 with a MACD on the threshold of positive values as BDRY very gently trended upwards.

As before, we still have the impression of $BDRY building on a base of support just below existing values. We tentatively marked possible support around $10.50 – $11.00 back in Week 22. A few of our indicators appear to hint at underlying strength, although continued peakish signs and stubborn upside resistance is cause for caution.


For some insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on Supramax, Panamax and Capesize positions.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 25.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 25.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 25.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY