Panamax flash in the pan? Baltic Dry Indices: Week 6 commentary.

HANDYSIZE

While dropping to a teeth-grinding 290 in Week 6, the Handysize Index actually eased in its recent plunge. After gapping down on the week’s open the overall performance could be called….um…less abysmal – a mere 11 points down.

What optimism might be gleaned at this point? The RSI firmly at zero and lagging MACD at heavily negative values might suggest a rest is coming, but the next month appears rough.

A recovery to our Week 4 target in the low 400s may be possible but some recovery in cargo fundamentals is needed.

Yes, fundamentals; there – we said it.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 6 the Supramax Index gapped down at a 438 open, but declining rather than plunging to a 415 close; a somewhat less than horrendous week.

The RSI stayed reasonably flat at 4.30 as the heavily negative MACD lagged behind a possible approaching pause, both indicators well into bottoming territory.

With successive targets being blown through in the Supras’ dive, the possibility of these low 400s levels offering any consolidation seems weak. However, this is the first sign of index easing in weeks.

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PANAMAX

Alone amongst the dry bulk indices, the Panamax Index gained in Week 6 to a 574 fix from a 552 open.

If this is some belated support from our old target in the low 700s, it’s a dim flash in the pan. The RSI rose a little to 9.35 with the move and the heavily negative MACD nudged at the -200s, both indicators into their nether regions.

Support may be possible in the upper 300s, perhaps into the low 400s area, but let’s not build too quickly on this small (and lonely) bright spot in the dry-bulk gloom.

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CAPESIZE

With a 792 Friday fix for Week 6, the Capesize Index pushed some way through our 1000-1050 downside target with a gap-down open. The index is now just below the 824 low point of 2018. With a less profound plunge than the other indices so far, the late-to-the-funeral Capes showed some remarkable restraint.

The RSI at 31.58 is coming within sight of bottoming territory, and the MACD of course continued down unabated after its bearish crossing of the signal line.

Perhaps our thoughts of some support in the 500s will come to pass, although we’re still watching into the 300s given the physical circumstances out there. We’ve already used the words “remarkable restraint” in a Cape index context: we shouldn’t jinx things any further.

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Continuing carnage – Baltic Dry Indices: Week 5 commentary.

A HAPPY & PROSPEROUS

LUNAR NEW YEAR!

(Even if it seems hollow in the face of these dry bulk numbers….)

HANDYSIZE

For Week 5 the Handysize index carnage continued, once again gapping down at the open and even accelerating the plunge to a 311 fix, as can be seen on the candlestick chart. With most of the indices in a race to the bottom ahead of the Lunar New Year, all bets appear to be off.

No influence from our previous downside target in the low 400s was seen. Any projections for future targets were reached and surpassed within the weekly period. The RSI was not only in single digits, it reached a single digit at barely above a value of 1.

The heavily negative and lagging MACD also plunged, with
indicators giving no clear idea of an upcoming resting zone for possibly the next week or so.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax index also continued its swan dive in Week 5 and perhaps stating the obvious, our pessimism about any support developing was confirmed. Closing at a 450 fix with no lower target in sight as yet, the upcoming Lunar Year could well extend the gloominess.

With the RSI at 4.20 and the lagging MACD plunging well into negative values, an overall wait-and-see attitude pervades the atmosphere. The only saving grace may be the relative leveling-off of the RSI indicator,which may hint at an as-yet-unseen consolidation area.

The indices are in the basement along with their indicators, and those nasty industry fundamentals will have to run their course.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax index followed the Handies and Supras in Week 5, accelerating its plunge to a 560 Friday fix. As expected, any influence from the low 700s area never materialized.

Like the Supramax index the Panamax RSI also showed some consistency, leveling out somewhat at 7.19. This small divergence in the RSI may hint at some kind of upcoming hesitation in the headlong dive. The lagging MACD followed the index as it plunged further into negative bottoming (bottomless?) values.

We were tempted to suggest a downside target (“area of
influence” perhaps?) in the low 500s zone, but the Panamaxes are dangerously close to that value now.
An understatement maybe, but confidence is not high.

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CAPESIZE

In Week 5, the Capesize index was seemingly infected by the malaise in its sister indices. Buckling at the knees and dropping to our 1000-1050 downside target area, the index closed at 1014. Whether the 1000-1050 area gives any support remains to be seen in the face of the overall dry bulk shipping collapse.

Having broken out of the past month’s doldrums, the Capes showed an RSI dropping slightly below neutral at 37.29 and a MACD that completed its crossing of the signal line to the bearish side.

To acknowledge the fundamentals, the re-shuffling in world trade, Chinese iron ore specifications and also the tragic Brazilian tailings-dam disaster are no doubt having an effect. With the present grim situation a downside target in the mid-300s area isn’t out of the running, with our hope for a rest in the 500s somewhere.

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Doom and/or gloom. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 4 commentary.

HANDYSIZE

Week 4 saw more gloominess for the Handysize Index, with yet another gap-down open. The headlong charge ran down
to a horrendous fix of 395, as the index poked a little way through our hopes of some low-400s consolidation.

The single-digit RSI at 6.04 and negatively-valued MACD reached deep into their respective basements however, giving a small ray of hope that some support may materialize.

For feelings of deja-vu refer to our Week 8 – 2018 commentary, although that particular gloomy spell was cured by the post-Golden Week pickup. In this case, we haven’t even reached the Chinese New Year yet. Let’s see if the low 400s levels exert any support influence and shed some light in the gloom.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index looked as equally gloomy as its Handy counterpart in Week 4, also gapping down and fixing abysmally.

The 576 close offered little in the way of developing support, even as the RSI bottomed at 4.76 hand-in-hand with a deeply negative MACD. Nothing in the way of consolidation was seen, as possible support hints in the 700 area were punched through.

As with Week 3 and the low 700s, our possible support thoughts have again been reached as the index taps at the 550 level. Are the indices heading for a repeat of the 2016 carnage? We’re not there yet, but anything in the way of developing support appears bleak for the moment.

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PANAMAX

For Week 4 in the Panamax Index, we saw gloomy repetition of the Supra and Handy collapse as the index fell to a
748 fix on yet another gap-down open.

The RSI value fell into single digits at 8.49, well into bottoming territory. The MACD hit heavily negative values as the index plunged, both indicators pointing to their low points. Of course the index took no notice of such paltry technicalities, giving our 900-925 support ideas short shrift.

By the end of Week 4 the index had already closed on our next downside target in the lower 700s, which gave little hope of any index rests developing. For now, any influence from the 700 zone may be negligible.

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CAPESIZE

In Week 4 the Capesize Index once again stayed just below our low 2000s upside resistance. Showing a dark candlestick
for the week, the index mostly eclipsed Week 3’s range to fix at 1730.

This gave an RSI straying into neutral territory at 44.68 and an MACD that wavered on its signal line, barely slipping over to the bearish side.

Should volatility in the Capes be returning, we’re watching this down-slip for a reach towards 1000-1050, with the mid-1400s as a possible moderating influence. For any upward motion, we’re watching for the low 2000s to re-assert resistance.

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Sub-capesize plunge continues – Baltic Dry Indices: Week 3 2019 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

In Week 3 the Handysize index again plunged on a gap-down 511 open, fixing at a dismal 451 for the week. Our previous fears for our 500-525 support ideas showed their teeth.

The index dive placed the RSI well into bottoming values at 14.50 and a MACD into negative values, which suggest things have gone far enough.

Of course, we shouldn’t forget old J.M. Keynes who might have said, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” The range of the plunge has us watching the low 400s for possible consolidation.

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SUPRAMAX

Week 3 continued in horrendous fashion for the Supramax index, with another gap-down open and a fix way down at 701. Starting the week well into our 800-850 area of possible influence, the carnage continued without a rest.

The RSI dropped to even smaller single digits at 6.94, far into the basement. The MACD followed on, its bearishness now well into negative value territory. Both indicators suggest some index strength is long overdue, but here we are.

Our possible support ideas should the 800-850 zone be demolished are right around the low 700s, right where the index is now. This next week may tell if consolidation, if any, is in the cards.

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PANAMAX

In Week 3 our thoughts of a braking effect on the Panamax Index’s downhill run failed to materialize.

With an gap-down open at 1118, the week ended gloomily at 1018. The RSI ran well into bottoming territory at 14.87, and the MACD followed blindly into heavily negative values.

Any braking action suggested by these indicators (see Week 2) hasn’t shown its face as yet. Our next target for any consolidation in the face of such negative index action is the low 900-925 area.

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CAPESIZE

Relative calmness in the Capesize index continued for Week 3, as a foray to a 1748 low for the week turned into a 2037 Friday fix.

As the index cruised along in our low-2000s upside
resistance
region, the RSI maintained itself some way above neutral at 49.44. A mildly bullish MACD poked its nose just above its signal line, lending some support to the index even as it tested the downside.

The recent action has us still watching the 1000-1050 zone for down-swings, with some possible easing in the mid-1500s. Should some strength develop we’ll watch for a significant break above 2000-2300. Naturally all this calm sailing causes us deep Capesize uneasiness, and seeing such tight number ranges in this index doesn’t help.

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Plunge upon plunge…except for the Capes: Baltic Dry Bulk Indices – Week 2 2019

Well, a week or two certainly makes a difference, doesn’t it? Our last commentary was for Week 50, 2018 and we posted dry bulk and tanker charts through the holiday period, watching as the black marks began to pile up. Our friend Jerome Sorrel summed it up well on the DryBulkPelagos blog – “the sound of the deflating shipping market.
Let’s poke around and see what we can sort out from all this shipping nonsense…

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HANDYSIZE

For Week 2/2019 the Handysize Index gapped down in even heavier fashion than previous weeks, plunging to
a 524 fix on a near-40-point drop.
In our Week 50/2018 commentary we discussed that the Handies might be at a crossroads, with some pessimism that a drop to the 500-525 zone might be in the works.

The lagging, bearish MACD entered negative-value territory as the RSI approached bottoming values at 23.35.

With these values and the index hard up against our 500-525 support ideas, some hope of arresting the plunge may be there. However, it will be hard to visualize in the face of such a headlong dive in the index.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 2/2019 the Supramax Index went off the edge hand-in-hand with the Handies. The index gapped down from Week 1’s 946 to a 933 open for Week 2. A further 91-point drop on the week brought the Supras down to an 842 fix.

In our previous comments we noted some possible attraction in the 960-975 area, but that any weakness might result in a downward run to 800-850 territory. Week 2’s action puts the index squarely in this lower zone with a well-bottomed RSI at 9.82.

Strengthened negative values were seen for the heavily-lagging, bearish MACD. While these indicators might suggest it may be time for a rest, the 800-850 zone will require monitoring for any further weakness in this heavy down-move.

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PANAMAX

Week 2 / 2019’s Panamax Index took a page from the Supras and Handies, plunging over 160 points on a gap-down open to fix at 1137. We had previously opined that there might be some upside resistance around 1575-1600, however the index didn’t make any forays above 1500 before taking a dive.

Going back to Week 43/2018, as the index declined the Panamaxes gained only fitful support for the remainder of 2018. This push down through our hoped-for support in the low 1400s has put the RSI at a bottom-region value of 19.74.

Gaining some bearish strength with the plunge, the MACD pushed harder into negative values. This may indicate some braking action on the Panamaxes’ downhill run, but nothing is visible in actual index action as yet.

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CAPESIZE

Being the odd man out in dry bulk for Week 2 / 2019, the Capesize Index showed some very sedate action. Closing at a 1966 fix, it gave some credence to our Week 50 / 2018 ideas, i.e. that there wasn’t the strength to stay above our low-2000s resistance zone.

The Week 2 candlestick shows a hint of index weakness, with the noticeable upper wick. The RSI maintained some above-neutral strength at 49.57, while the MACD rose slightly to park itself on top of the signal line, perhaps hinting at a little bullish tendency.

Bumping along under that low-2000s resistance zone,
the Capes have enjoyed a little spell in limbo over the holiday period. Our low-side support thoughts are around the 1050-1000 zone, as we suspiciously eye this rare calm in the Capes.

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Handies at a Crossroads? Baltic Dry Indices – Week 50 technical commentary.

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As we head to the Christmas break, we at Superior Maritime would like to extend our very best wishes for this festive season to you and yours, no matter which holiday you celebrate. We’ll see you in 2019.

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HANDYSIZE

Week 50 saw further weakness in the Handysize Index, as it dipped below Week 49’s close and saw an ending fix at 617. With the index pushing into our support ideas in the 615-620 range, it remains to be seen if Week 49’s rest is now being tested.

The MACD just crossed its signal line to the bearish side and the RSI faded to an off-peak 64.85, still giving us the impression that the Handies are at a crossroads of sorts.

An upside pull-back could see some resistance in the 675-700 area, but the signs appear gloomier for the moment.

For now we’re watching for the index to continue testing the 615-620 region. For a downward breakthrough, our support target is the 500-525 zone but, should the present 615-620 zone show some attraction, a somewhat higher downside target might not be out of the running.

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SUPRAMAX

Week 50 saw another small boost for the Supramax Index, with a small gap up on the open up to a Friday fix of 974. Our Week 44 thoughts of the 960-975 zone acting as attraction may be playing out a little.

The RSI rose to an off-bottom value of 27.78 and the MACD ‘s bearish trickle continued to weaken.

If the index should continue strengthening, the 960-975 zone could act as support. Any weakness at that level would have us eyeballing below 900, perhaps the 800-850 area. As previously mentioned, further strength could hint at some resistance in the 1000-1100 zone.

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PANAMAX

In Week 50, the Panamax Index showed an interesting chart after the surge and rest of the previous two weeks.

Dipping to 1445 at one point, the index improved to a close of 1478, leaving a small lower wick on the weekly candlestick – not very bearish but something to keep an eye on.
The RSI stayed close to neutral at 43.56 as the MACD lagged and further weakened its bearishness.

After rising from our Week 46 support thoughts, our next upside resistance target is around the 1575-1600 area. All this seems to give more support to our previous consolidation thoughts, but as before we are still watching for weakness and keeping an eye on the low 1400s.

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CAPESIZE

After a volatile couple of weeks where the Capesize Index fully eclipsed the ominous-looking Week 48, the Week 50 chart was quite staid by comparison. However with the closing fix at 2383, the index poked quite hard at our upside resistance ideas in the low 2000s.

The candlesticks gave us a small lower wick for Week 50, hinting at a possible lack of strength to push through our resistance thoughts but the RSI gained to the stronger side of neutral at 49.65, and the MACD closed in further on the signal line.

The MACD has come up short on going bullish before, (see Week 44) so for now we’re watching these lower 2000s for a consolidation in Capesize strength.

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Handies and Panamaxes pause, Supras and Capes gain (a little). Baltic Dry Indices – Week 49 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index took a rest in Week 49, halting its downtrend just above our 615-620 support ideas from a month ago. Barely visible on the chart, the index closed at 625, down a whole single point on the week.

The RSI continued its downtrend to 69.33, still not far off peakishness. The MACD faded to park itself squarely on the signal line, just on the edge of bearishness.

Perhaps we’re at a small crossroads for the Handies, and it remains to be seen if some support consolidates itself. A gloomy resolution could give us 500-550 as our next downside support. For now however, there may be some inclination to retain some buoyancy in the 600-650 zone.

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SUPRAMAX

For Week 49 a glimmer of hope was seen in the Supramax Index, as it maintained a modest climb to 953 at the Friday fix. Our 960-975 support thoughts from back in Week 44 may be influencing the index at this point.

The RSI continued to wander into bottoming territory
at 23.75, and the lagging, negatively-valued MACD kept weakening in its bearish path.

As these patterns continue to work out, perhaps we’re seeing possible consolidation above our next downside support
target in the 900 region. Any recovery at these levels could see some resistance around the 1000-1150 area.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax Index squeezed into a tight range of five points for Week 49, displaying some indecision after the upward boost of Week 48. The index closed as it opened at 1469.

The RSI hovered around neutrality at 43.56 and the lagging MACD stayed weakly bearish, neither giving up much in the way of directional clues.

This slight fizzle might hint at some consolidation above our low-1400s support thoughts from Week 45, but we’re keeping an eye on the 1350-1375 zone in case of more weakness.

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CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index took a 559-point surge upwards in Week 49, in a range which completely enveloped that of the ominous-looking Week 48 candlestick.

The action nudged the RSI up into neutral territory and made the MACD bend a little further towards the signal line and bullishness, hinting at the possibility of more index strength.

So far our consolidation ideas in the Capes have been borne out a little. However, the index has now bumped up against our low-2000s resistance ideas for two consecutive weeks. It will be worth watching to see if the index manages to push upwards through this zone.

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Supramax plunge losing momentum? Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 48 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index closed down once more at 626 for Week 48. Traversing a tighter 7-point range, the index was left just above the 600-615 support zone we spoke of back in our Week 45 comments.

The RSI showed a slightly off-peak 71.68 while the MACD continued its fade towards the signal line and bearishness.

However, the narrower range and weaker RSI may be hints of slowing downward momentum, and the MACD hasn’t crossed the signal line just yet. Let’s keep an eye on that possible 600-615 support for the moment.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 48 the Supramax Index stayed in a tight range, losing downward momentum, and even recovered two points up from the week’s low to a 944 close.

The RSI strayed towards bottoming territory at 29.54, and
the MACD ‘s lagging bearishness weakened a little as it pushed further into negative values.

As we mentioned previously, perhaps our old 960-975 support ideas from Week 44 will exert a little influence. At the moment however, the index is also close to our next downside support target around the 900 region. If momentum continues to fade, could the index see some solid footing around present levels?

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PANAMAX

A welcome snap-back for the Panamax Index was seen in Week 48, easing our gloomier thoughts. This lent some credence to our support ideas in the low 1400s from Week 45’s comments.

On a 1463 close for the week, the RSI fell to neutral at 40.12 and the MACD continued to show some weakness in its bearish trend.

Should support in the low 1400s continue to firm up, our upside resistance target would be in the 1575-1600 zone.

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CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index continued its fickle ways in Week 48. Surging into, then bouncing off our upside resistance
thoughts
in the low 2000s early in the week, the Capes retreated sharply to a 1755 close for the week.

On the candlestick chart we see a classic Shooting Star candle, although the preceding uptrend was more whiplash than “trend”. The RSI moved further away from bottoming territory and strayed closer to neutral at 33.13. The still-negative MACD went flat and gave a small nod towards to the signal line and possible bullishness.

For now our Cape consolidation ideas seem to be playing out, but with no confirmation as yet on the bearish-looking candlesticks. Keeping an eye on our 800-850 support thoughts may still be warranted, with possible upside resistance still in the 2000 area.