Capes consolidate? Maybe a little… Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 47 technical commentary.

We wish all our American friends a safe and happy holiday as we roll through this Thanksgiving weekend.

May all your harvests be bountiful.

HANDYSIZE

For Week 47 the Handysize Index lost another 10 points or so, closing at 635. This brought the index closer to our support thoughts around 600-615 as the Handies steadily stair-step downwards.

The RSI at 76.47 was a little off peakishness, but still hinting at some downward travel. The MACD continued its fading towards the signal line and bearishness. With no signs of consolidation yet, we are once again watching the 600-615 zone for signs of strength.

As we continue to cast chicken bones and sprinkle pixie dust, our next downside target may be somewhere in the mid-to-low 500s.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 47 the Supramax Index gave a little hope that some consolidation may be in the works. After a down-week that closed at 952, can we take a little consolation that there wasn’t a gap down at the week’s 986 open?

The RSI was just below neutral at 37.00, and the lagging, bearish MACD entered negative values. No turnaround signs, but possibly some loss of momentum in line with our – ahem – highly technical bungee-cord comments last week.

The index has now tested our 960-975 support ideas, and it remains to be seen if this zone has any pull. Our next downside target may be around 900 or so, and perhaps we will see some consolidation in that 900-950 area should the momentum weaken further.

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PANAMAX

Gapping down for Week 47, the Panamax Index took a headlong dive into bearishness. Closing at 1376, the index took a stab at our hopes of support in the low 1400s.

The RSI turned away from its divergent upward path towards neutrality at 43.96, and the bearish MACD still showed some positive value in its lagging dive.

With the 16-point gap down on the open, we could be seeing some momentum that may keep the index below 1400 in the coming weeks. So far, any attraction to the 1400s seems weak.

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CAPESIZE

Bouncing back a little for Week 47 the Capesize Index closed up at 1358, confirming our previous positive thoughts. (Yes, positive thoughts – in the Capes.) Thankfully, the index retreated above our pessimistic 800-850 support ideas.

Sporting another lower wick like the Week 46 candlestick, are the Capes showing some signs of consolidation? Perhaps backing up these ideas, the RSI recovered to a still-bottomish 24.25, while the MACD continued to fade in its bearishness, heavily into negative values.

Should this consolidation continue to build, there may be some upside resistance in the 2000 region.
If this rest is just a flash in the pan, our next downside target is still in the 800-850 zone.

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Weakness across the board. Baltic Dry Bulk Indices – Week 46 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

For Week 46 the Handysize Index found itself closing down again at 646. The steady march downwards of the weekly candlesticks is a bit worrisome.

The indicators showed relatively little change, as the RSI stayed in peakish country at 82.10 with the MACD showing weakness as it gradually curves towards bearishness.

With the index now just above our 600-615 support ideas, we’ll keep watching to see how much strength this zone might have in the coming weeks.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index gave us no cheer in Week 46, continuing its recent habit of gapping down at each week’s open.
Closing at 969, the index at least showed a tighter range on the week compared to previous runaways.

In our previous comments, we talked about possible support in the 960-975 zone should things get really bad, and lo, here we are. As the index approaches the lows of Feb. 2018, the RSI closed on neutrality at 41.25, with the lagging MACD not quite into negative values yet but still bearish.

The index seems to be in the mood to test the 960-975 zone, although seeing the tighter range in Week 46 may indicate
some shrinking elasticity in the Supramax bungee cord.

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PANAMAX

Continuing the gloominess, the Panamax Index closed down for Week 46 at 1453. Previously we spoke of possible support in the low 1400s.

As the index approached that area the RSI continued a contrary climb into the mid-50s. The bearish but still positive MACD may be entering a lagging phase.

It’s possible the Panamax Index may be approaching one of its semi-regular step-backs visible throughout the chart. Let’s see what builds, if anything, in the low 1400s.

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CAPESIZE

In Week 46 the Capesize Index took a hard poke through our lower-end support ideas and closed at a dismal 1057.
All was not gloom however, as the low for the week was 940, with the chart showing us a small wick on the bottom
of the Week 46 candlestick. Hope springs eternal.

The RSI kept its bottoming appearance at 18.08 (although we’ve seen the Capes in single digits) and the bearish
MACD began to lag in our estimation, running well into negative values.

Even with this plunge through our original lower support thoughts, are we looking at building support in the 800 – 850 range? Let’s see if the Cape Index thumbs its nose at us once more.

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Supras step on down. Baltic Dry Bulk Indices – Week 45 commentary.

HANDYSIZE

For Week 45, the Handysize Index retreated to 656, keeping itself below our 700 – 725 upside resistance target and still making us watch for possible support around 600 – 615.

The RSI, as in Week 44, stayed up in the peakish range at 86.93 while the lagging MACD slowly faded away from bullishness.

With weakness across all the indices, let’s continue to watch for support at those lower 600s.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index continued its downward plunge in Week 45, and we continued to cast a gloomy eye at possible support in the previously mentioned 960 – 975 zone.

With Week 44’s gap down mimicking the entire previous three weeks, it seems these support ideas could see some heavy testing. The RSI has barely entered neutral territory, and the MACD has confirmed its crossing to the bearish side of its signal line.

The index is now firmly back at the support levels of Weeks 15 and 23. Let’s see if Week 46 shows some cushioning to this sustained dive.

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PANAMAX

Closing down at 1495, the Panamax Index continued its weakness in Week 45 as we looked for our support ideas in the low 1400s to come into play.

The RSI pulled up a little into the low 50s. Still in positive value, the MACD crossed to the bearish zone, propelled by the strength of the recent down-move.

The near-200-point drop of Week 43 still casts a heavy shadow on the index, and the 1400 – 1450 zone may yet receive a kick in the teeth.

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CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index plunge in Week 45 made us seek out our previous comments, and cast a jaundiced eye over them. Retreating hard below our 2720 – 2750 upside resistance, the Capes lunged all the way down to our downside support ideas in the mid-1400s. Consolidation indeed…

Closing Week 45 at 1461, the index is basically hard up against our downside support thoughts. The MACD diverted sharply from straying to the upside, and turned firmly into negative values from a near-zero point for Week 44. The RSI is firmly into bottoming territory at 19.38, so the combination of indicators suggests the index could be in a bottoming zone.

Then again, the Capes have never paid much attention to mere mortals like us; let’s see how much strength this mid-1400 zone has, if any.

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Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 44 Technical Commentary.

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index is showing some hesitancy in its recent climb over the past couple of months. Looking back, the RSI was solidly in bottoming territory around the beginning of July. This preceded a solidly-built uptrend that has now given us its first dark candlestick.

Now the RSI finds itself in traditional peaking territory in the mid-to-high eighties, with the MACD still bullish, but now in lagging mode. Our upside/resistance target in the 700 – 725 zone may be a bit optimistic at this point.

The surge in Week 43 was definitely tempered by Week 44’s action, although there may be some support building in the 600 – 615 region.

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SUPRAMAX

Over the past three weeks, the Supramax Index has retreated sharply from a 1204 high at the beginning of October.
Gapping down for two consecutive weeks, the Supras pushed down through our support thoughts in the 1100 – 1120 region.

The RSI was well into the peaking zone at 95.96 back in Week 41, and the MACD has now given us a confirmed bearish crossing of the signal line.

All this doom and gloom has us glancing fitfully at our

960 – 975 downside support ideas. T’would be nice if the index didn’t dive that far.

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PANAMAX

For Week 44 the Panamax Index gapped down once more, though a far smaller downswing than Week 43, giving confirmation of the momentum fizzle in Week 42.
After a steady summer of swinging and stair-stepping up from an 1149 low, our support ideas around 1600 – 1620
were tested strongly (read “slapped”) down to 1530.

Coming off a peaky (for the Panamaxes) 68.77, the Week 44 RSI pushed into neutral ground at 47.47. The downswing forced the MACD to a near-crossing of its signal line, giving a gloomier outlook than recently seen.

Let’s see if the 1400 – 1450 zone shoulders the Panamaxes’ flagging fortunes. This area may develop support, although that very slight Week 44 recovery might hint at some pull from the 1600s region.

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CAPESIZE

In Week 44, the Capesize Index showed its first dark candlestick after a somewhat tentative climb from September’s 1840 low, tempering the somewhat stronger upswing in Week 43.

Perhaps there’s a little consolidation at play in the Capes. The RSI maintains a neutral position and the MACD still continues to turn towards the upside.

With our downside support ideas in the mid-1400s, the index seemed reluctant to test our upside resistance ideas around 2720 – 2750. A lot of room to swing in? Aye Jim lad, but these be the Capes, fickle beasts that they are…

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Summer Break – Capes up, Panamax rests, Supras & Handies tumble.

As the Capesize Index took a surge last week (daring to poke through our upside resistance, no less), and while the Handies weakened along with the Supras, the Panamaxes took a pause.

For the next few weeks, Superior Maritime’s spot (or blemish?) on the web will be taking a summer break.

As we head off to the non-internet Canadian wilderness, we wish you a safe and happy summer. We’ll be catching up with you and the Baltic Indices again soon. Stay tuned to the www.supermar.info blog and @SuperiorMar on Twitter – we’ll be in touch.

Until then, keep your nose above water…

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BALTIC DRY BULK INDICES

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BALTIC TANKER INDICES

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Supras took a dive, Panamaxes rested. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 26 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

Week 26’s Handysize Index carried on in sideways mode, although weakness in the index appeared stronger at first glance. Bumping along the bottom of our 575 – 600 support zone, the Handies made a fresh low in their present channel at 581.

The MACD reinforced its weak bearishness with a small
crook downwards as it approached negative values, and the RSI took an interesting plunge close to possible bottoming numbers at 23.68.

Does this mean we still have some upward sentiment in the index? Possibly. As we mentioned for Week 25, the test could be the index taking a poke at the 550 level. In that situation, the 575 – 600 area could become our upside resistance.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 26 the Supramax Index backed our Week 25 thoughts of weakness, to say the least. Declining from its 1085 open
to a 1042 close, the index tagged our possible support ideas around 1075 early in the week, barely registering a pause on the way down. The index headed towards our old 975 – 1000 support area that we first identified back in Week 14 , so perhaps we’ll see another test of this zone after such a tentative-looking up-trend over the past few months.

Following the drop was the RSI‘s plunge below neutral to 34.63, and a MACD that finally crossed the signal line after skimming along just above it for some time; bearish signals maybe, but things could moderate somewhat.

Another bold run downwards may put the RSI in bottoming territory, but it’s early days yet. First, let’s see how the index reacts around that 975 – 1000 area, and if any support firms up and pushes back.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax Index showed a tight range for Week 26, closing at 1336, barely down on a 1339 open. The low for the week was early-on at 1321, the index recovering from there.

Testing the bottom of our old 1350 – 1400 attraction/support thoughts, the Panamaxes rested in their bearishness, maybe offering some hope for a pullout from the Week 25 dive. The RSI, offering no hints, stayed just below neutral at 36.58 as the barely bullish MACD entered limbo, still relatively flat after its cross-over of the signal line in Week 24.

The hope remains that a return to the previous wide channel is building in this index, although the general appearance is of weakness. Let’s see if that 1350 – 1400 area continues as a index pivot point of sorts. Should weakness assert itself, our next downside target is in the 1075 – 1100 area.

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CAPESIZE

For Week 26 the Capesize Index followed our Week 25 stair-stepper thoughts well above our 1500 – 1700 support ideas, closing at 2170 for the week.

The RSI pushed to 61.08 – not too peaky – and the MACD steadied in its weak bullishness, still in negative values.

Both indicators still seem to be hinting at some slight

upward incentive.

Back in Weeks 23 and 24, we spoke of slowing momentum, and possible mild upward pressure in the index. For the moment, the index seems to be consolidating between these sentiments, with our 2500 – 2700 upside resistance not far away.

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Supras and Handies take a break: Capes retreat. Baltic Dry Indices – Week 25 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

A fairly flat Week 25 was seen for the Handysize Index, lending continued credence to our ideas of support
from the 575 – 600 level. So far, our thoughts of continued sideways travel are holding water.

The index closed a little down on the week at 593, staying in a tight 2-point range. The RSI dropped below the neutral zone to 35.34 while the MACD flattened out in its weak bearishness.

Perhaps these indicators are hinting of an approaching recovery, but keeping an eye on the 550 level for breaks downward might be wise.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 25 the Supramax Index took a rest from the previous two weeks’ action. Closing just below our 1100 – 1200 upside resistance at 1092, there was a tiny 2-point range for the week. With this fizzling in the previous momentum, it remains to be seen whether there are further excursions over the 1100 mark.

Maybe hinting at a small period of limbo for the index, the RSI continued its descent to reach 50.21 and the MACD stayed relatively flat while still on the weakly bullish side.

We may be looking at potential support building around the 1075 point which might become a factor, but overall there seems to be a general weakening in the Supras.

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PANAMAX

Week 25 saw a steady decline in the Panamax Index, closing over a hundred points down to close at 1355, and cancelling out a major part of recent gains.

The Panamaxes pulled back to our old Week 12 1350 – 1400 “attraction zone” as quickly as they pushed through it.

The RSI descended below the neutral zone to 36.11 as the MACD was tempered by the fall, flattening out even as it crossed to the bullish side of the signal line.

After the dramatic recovery, is this sudden weakness the index working back into the channelling pattern of previous months?

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CAPESIZE

For Week 25 the Capesize Index retreated, closing the week over 200 points down at 2011. Bearing out our Week 23 thoughts of slowed momentum, the index turned and pointed back to our support ideas in the 1500 – 1700 area. It remains to be seen whether Week 25’s black candlestick begets more of its kind at this point.

Meanwhile, the MACD remained in negative values but flattened out in its bullish climb. Along with a basically healthy RSI at 59.06, perhaps some slight upward pressure still exists.

We’re watching to see if the Capes show some progressive stair-stepping, or if Week 25’s weakness takes hold after this heavy drop.

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Capes pull up, Handies stay dull. Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 22 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

The short Week 22 gave us another dull spell in the Handysize Index, with a mere three-point range to close down on the week at 583. It remains to be seen through the recent gloom whether our thoughts of support around 575 – 600 are in fact asserting themselves.

The MACD came close to negative values and continued its weak bearishness while the RSI, although down slightly, stayed in the low 60s.

There may be hints at upward pressure there, but with our 575 – 600 support zone being lightly tested the signs appear weak for the moment.

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SUPRAMAX

For Week 22 the Supramax Index gapped down a little and faded from the outset to close seven points lower at 1061. Confirming the recent move’s loss of momentum, the index paused below our 1100 – 1200 upside resistance area.

Still in peakish territory for the Supras, the RSI dropped slightly to 70.86 while the MACD‘s weak bullishness drooped and made bearish motions towards the signal line.

The overall weakness might result in another test of our 975 – 1000 support, which the index bounced off so strongly following Week 15, but the strength of the Supras recent up-move may be a saving grace.

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PANAMAX

In Week 22 the slow fade of the Panamax Index seemed to continue beyond our warning area around 1250, but then recovered to an 1192 close, up from the 1163 open.

Candlestick-watchers will notice a small lower “wick” on Week 22’s candle. Some might call it grasping at straws,
but some upward push-back may be a possibility. The RSI dropped to 27.46, on the threshold of bottoming values, and together with the MACD‘s strongly negative value may add up to some support.

Let us see if the Panamaxes can make it back up into their old sideways channel, swingy as it is.

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CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index showed a promising recovery in Week 22, rising out of a high 1200s low to close at 1602. Our thoughts of a support zone in the 1500 – 1700 region may be seeing some confirmation with this latest move, and that small wick tailing off the bottom of the Week 22 candlestick might be a hint. We could call this a bullish Piercing Line formation, but it doesn’t quite meet the criteria; then again this the Cape index – you never know.

The MACD, lagging and weakly bullish, still angled down towards the signal line. However this indicator is still into negative values and might supply some upward pressure. The RSI stayed just above neutral at 48.55, and a steadier recovery (in the Capes? Hah!) could reinforce more index strength.

For now, we’ll wait to see if the 1500 – 1700 area becomes a zone of attraction as it did in the early part of this year.

Will one swallow make a Handysize summer? Baltic Dry Indices: Week 20 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

For Week 20, we saw the Handysize Index recover a little, showing a steady up-trend to close the week at 590. We’d like to think that our 575 – 600 support zone is asserting itself, but we’ll have to wait for a little more confirmation.

The RSI rose with the index to 64.41, giving room for further upward motion without reaching peaky territory. The MACD, now beginning to lag somewhat, eased a little in its weakly
bearish decline.

Should this slightly positive sprout in the index start blossoming, the possibility of some upside resistance around
675 – 700 (or lower) may temper a surge. As the proverb says, one swallow doesn’t make a summer, but we’re watching this with interest.

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SUPRAMAX

For Week 20, the Supramax Index showed a stronger surge in a previously fading up-trend to close at 1069. Refreshing their run-up off our 975 – 1000 support zone that began after Week 15, the Supras reached towards our older upside resistance target of 1100 – 1200 (see Week 12 commentary).

This area has been a previous barrier for the index, and at 76.52 the RSI approached the peaking zone for the Supras. Taking a tilt upwards,the MACD barely improved its weakly bullish appearance.

It remains to be seen how much more momentum the present index upswing contains, but Week 20’s action certainly scores optimism points.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax Index for Week 20 barely registered a gain, but closed a point up at 1243. That would be the tiny white blemish on the end of the chart below.

Still within a few points of our support ideas around 1250, this positive pause gave us a RSI still climbing away from neutral at 49.45 and an even more negative MACD.

Perhaps our Week 19 ideas about upward pressure are consolidating, and the the 1250 mark could re-assert some support. We wonder if our old “attraction zone” of 1350 – 1400 still beckons.

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CAPESIZE

The Week 20 Capesize Index gave us a heavy retreat from our 2500 – 2700 upside resistance zone ( which we identified as far back as Week 8 ) and fell steadily to close
the week nearly 600 points down at 2053. Our pessimistic thoughts for Week 19 of a peakish RSI with the index in the 2600s appeared to confirm the 2500 – 2700 barrier.

The RSI trailed off towards neutrality, down to 53.68 from the relative peak of Week 19, while the still-negative MACD weakened in its bullish trajectory. For Week 19 we surmised that the MACD‘s negative value would help maintain some upward pressure, but no such luck.

Back in Week 15 we brought up the idea that there could be a support/resistance band in the 1500 – 1750 zone, which the Capes of course blew through in their headlong upward charge. Looking back through the chart to January 2017, we can see places where this zone serves as a staging point, so to speak. However with Capesize volatility of course, there’s plenty uncertainty – possibly even odds as to whether that 1500 – 1750 area acts as a trampoline or a wet paper bag.

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