Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 8 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

Still within our support zone of 525 – 550, the Handysize Index rose steadily through Week 8 to close at 534.

Having heaved itself away from our bearish area of concern at the 500 mark, the handies offered some hope of recovery into a comfort zone between our 525 -550 support ideas and possible upside resistance around 600 – 625.

We had some previous cause for optimism, given the low RSI, which rose to 19.44 (still in “bottom” territory) and a MACD that strayed below zero for Week 8. In this post-Lunar New Year week, let’s hope the positive numbers in the other indices prove infectious for the Handy Index.

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SUPRAMAX

For Week 8, the Supramax Index also rose steadily to a close at 892. Our worries of the index testing our 750 – 800 support ideas receded with the strong showing for the week.

Should the current strength hold, there may be some upside resistance at the 975 – 1000 level which could give some sideways travel for the Supras.

The RSI rose into neutral territory at 47.54, and the MACD showed a small lean towards bullish while in negative numbers, offering some possible momentum for the latest up-move.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax Index showed some strength in Week 8, rebounding over 200 points to a close at 1481. This action propped up an index that was showing some gradual weakening since the beginning of 2018. Well away from our possible support zone around 1250, the index pushed upwards through our upside resistance target in the 1350 – 1400 area.

The RSI at 52.08 is rising beyond neutral values, but isn’t near its upper zone yet, which for the Panamaxes seems to be in the 65 – 75 area.

The MACD turned away from its downward travel with Week 8’s move, so should this push against our resistance ideas continue, the index reaching 1650 – 1700 territory may be in the cards. For the moment though, we’ll see how this latest move pans out. Our 1350 – 1400 resistance ideas may re-assert themselves and regulate Week 8’s exuberance a little.

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CAPESIZE

Rising from a 1597 open for Week 8, the Capesize Index levelled off mid-week and closed at 1722. The overall range in the past few weeks’ “resting” mode has been roughly 400 points or so, continuing from our ideas in Week 3’s commentary. Cruising along midway between our 750 – 800 support zone and our upside 2500 – 2700 resistance area, the index remained in this odd (for the Capes, anyway) sideways channel.

The MACD was well into negative numbers, but with a RSI sailing along just below neutral, there’s no real sense of pressure in either an up or down direction.

However, eyeing the candlestick chart and negative MACD
together suggests a tightening of the range over the past couple of weeks that may hint at an upcoming move;
possibly bullish but no confirmation yet, so we won’t pontificate with possibly premature prognostications.
(Maybe we should have worked that line into the Panamax section…)

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Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 6 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

For Week 6, the Handysize Index continued to test our support ideas in the 525 – 550 range, closing well into that area at 526 for the week.

In what might be a ‘tell’ for this recent downturn, the RSI, as we mentioned for Week 5, is well into its low zone. A single digit RSI is something to be watched; 8.29 in this case.

The MACD is of course firmly bearish, but hasn’t yet
got into the zero zone or below yet, however it’s close.

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SUPRAMAX

As with the handies, the Supramax Index took another downswing in Week 6, closing at 825.

The next couple of weeks may begin to show less gloominess, if our 750 – 800 support target holds.

The RSI is approaching low-end territory at 23.91, and our MACD has just tested the zero point; hopefully these are all signs of brakes being applied in this latest downturn.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax Index took a deeper excursion downwards for Week 6, closing at 1250. We had a eye on the 1250 point for signs of bearishness, but with no breakthrough yet there remains hope for some support in this area.

Week 6 appeared as a deeper adjustment in the overall
flattening out of the Panamax Index since late 2017.

The RSI continued in the neutral zone, and the MACD continued in bear mode but still well over zero – giving little indication. Would casting an lifeline to the Capesize Index help a little?

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CAPESIZE

In marked contrast to the other indices, for Week 6 the Capesize Index continued in the tight range seen in Weeks 4 and 5. Closing on a uptrend week at 1790, the Capes appear to
be taking the rest we were hoping for back in Week 3.

Still within our “attraction zone” of 1500 – 2000, we may see a step back from the abyss with our thoughts of a 1200 – 1250 support zone possibly firming up.

In the mid-30s region, the RSI is barely on the low side of neutral. Our MACD however is well into negative numbers, perhaps giving some backing to those support ideas.

Baltic Dry Indices Commentary – Week 33

HANDYSIZE:

The handy index entered the doldrums in Week 33, with nary a wander either side of 465. Whether seasonal cargo has an effect on the handies remains to be seen, as things still look weak to neutral. (unlike its sister Supramax index, which took an interesting hop upwards) For now, the Handy index
seems to be content, strolling along kicking stones.

*CLICK ON EACH CHART TO SEE A LARGER VERSION*

Let’s hope a seasonal kick will help to keep the Handy index wandering in the 450 – 525 range.
With RSI around 40, and MACD showing weakness, the index is displaying some anaemic tendencies.
Seemingly there is no ambition yet to push upwards through the 500 mark.

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SUPRAMAX:

The bullish turn we were mumbling about last week seems to have carried through, with the Supra index reaching a point not seen since the beginning of May 2017 (Week 18) Expectations could signal further climbing, if we see a push upward through the 800-850 region. So far, there seems to be more positivity than the lack-lustre tendencies of the Handysize Index.

*CLICK ON EACH CHART TO SEE A LARGER VERSION*

The MACD being on the positive side, the RSI at 52.55 bears watching (get it?) as it approaches the caution zone.

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PANAMAX:
Last week we mentioned the base that the Panamax index built on back in June, around the 1100 region. Looking further back to the beginning of 2017, similar activity around the 1000 level was seen. Dare we hope for more of the same around the 1200 mark? The general bullishness of the past few weeks may show some signs of consolidation over the next short while.

We observers can hope, as the Relative Strength indicator is approaching the peaking zone, showing 64.67 while the MACD continues on the bullish side.

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CAPESIZE:

The headlong charge of the Capes continues, although in this business we can’t avoid comparisons with the doomed Light Brigade. Nevertheless,
here we are. A backward glance confirms a fairly consistent average of 1500 – 1750 all the way back to the beginning of the year. The major excursions
up and down are to be expected with the relative narrowness of Cape market cargo. Take a quick look at an iron ore / shipping demand and growth chart.
Smearing the screen with our index finger, we can deduce the Capes’ convoluted fortunes through the last year or two.

*CLICK ON EACH CHART TO SEE A LARGER VERSION*

A target area of 1500 – 1750 could continue as the index average. However, caution is required since the Relative Strength Index is entering “be careful” territory. The MACD lines still show positive.
As we can see from the recent past, the Cape Index resembles the water-buffalo – a large bulky animal indeed, but capable of displaying sudden maneouverability.
Don’t glance away; the index is rapidly catching up to the peaks seen in November 2016 and March/April 2017.

What’s next for our Cape Index heroes? Tune in next week, when you might hear us say, “What the………?”

$SALT – Scorpio Bulkers

2016-10-17 10:47 AM

Scorpio Bulkers – SALT

Back in July we spoke of possible bullishness in SALT. Since then we’ve seen tentative, but steady, climbing of the stair case, with some heavy testing of support points. There appears to be a building of price support in the 3.70 area, and this may lead to a more solid consolidation.

So far, so good.

Previous mumblings on SALT:

2016-07-09 10:55 AM

Scorpio Bulkers – SALT

As the week closes, SALT has maintained its steadiness, perhaps even knocking on the ceiling around 3.15 over the past few days. Any building into the 3.00 / 3.50 range could prove slightly bullish.