Continuing carnage – Baltic Dry Indices: Week 5 commentary.

A HAPPY & PROSPEROUS

LUNAR NEW YEAR!

(Even if it seems hollow in the face of these dry bulk numbers….)

HANDYSIZE

For Week 5 the Handysize index carnage continued, once again gapping down at the open and even accelerating the plunge to a 311 fix, as can be seen on the candlestick chart. With most of the indices in a race to the bottom ahead of the Lunar New Year, all bets appear to be off.

No influence from our previous downside target in the low 400s was seen. Any projections for future targets were reached and surpassed within the weekly period. The RSI was not only in single digits, it reached a single digit at barely above a value of 1.

The heavily negative and lagging MACD also plunged, with
indicators giving no clear idea of an upcoming resting zone for possibly the next week or so.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax index also continued its swan dive in Week 5 and perhaps stating the obvious, our pessimism about any support developing was confirmed. Closing at a 450 fix with no lower target in sight as yet, the upcoming Lunar Year could well extend the gloominess.

With the RSI at 4.20 and the lagging MACD plunging well into negative values, an overall wait-and-see attitude pervades the atmosphere. The only saving grace may be the relative leveling-off of the RSI indicator,which may hint at an as-yet-unseen consolidation area.

The indices are in the basement along with their indicators, and those nasty industry fundamentals will have to run their course.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax index followed the Handies and Supras in Week 5, accelerating its plunge to a 560 Friday fix. As expected, any influence from the low 700s area never materialized.

Like the Supramax index the Panamax RSI also showed some consistency, leveling out somewhat at 7.19. This small divergence in the RSI may hint at some kind of upcoming hesitation in the headlong dive. The lagging MACD followed the index as it plunged further into negative bottoming (bottomless?) values.

We were tempted to suggest a downside target (“area of
influence” perhaps?) in the low 500s zone, but the Panamaxes are dangerously close to that value now.
An understatement maybe, but confidence is not high.

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CAPESIZE

In Week 5, the Capesize index was seemingly infected by the malaise in its sister indices. Buckling at the knees and dropping to our 1000-1050 downside target area, the index closed at 1014. Whether the 1000-1050 area gives any support remains to be seen in the face of the overall dry bulk shipping collapse.

Having broken out of the past month’s doldrums, the Capes showed an RSI dropping slightly below neutral at 37.29 and a MACD that completed its crossing of the signal line to the bearish side.

To acknowledge the fundamentals, the re-shuffling in world trade, Chinese iron ore specifications and also the tragic Brazilian tailings-dam disaster are no doubt having an effect. With the present grim situation a downside target in the mid-300s area isn’t out of the running, with our hope for a rest in the 500s somewhere.

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Handies at a Crossroads? Baltic Dry Indices – Week 50 technical commentary.

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As we head to the Christmas break, we at Superior Maritime would like to extend our very best wishes for this festive season to you and yours, no matter which holiday you celebrate. We’ll see you in 2019.

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HANDYSIZE

Week 50 saw further weakness in the Handysize Index, as it dipped below Week 49’s close and saw an ending fix at 617. With the index pushing into our support ideas in the 615-620 range, it remains to be seen if Week 49’s rest is now being tested.

The MACD just crossed its signal line to the bearish side and the RSI faded to an off-peak 64.85, still giving us the impression that the Handies are at a crossroads of sorts.

An upside pull-back could see some resistance in the 675-700 area, but the signs appear gloomier for the moment.

For now we’re watching for the index to continue testing the 615-620 region. For a downward breakthrough, our support target is the 500-525 zone but, should the present 615-620 zone show some attraction, a somewhat higher downside target might not be out of the running.

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SUPRAMAX

Week 50 saw another small boost for the Supramax Index, with a small gap up on the open up to a Friday fix of 974. Our Week 44 thoughts of the 960-975 zone acting as attraction may be playing out a little.

The RSI rose to an off-bottom value of 27.78 and the MACD ‘s bearish trickle continued to weaken.

If the index should continue strengthening, the 960-975 zone could act as support. Any weakness at that level would have us eyeballing below 900, perhaps the 800-850 area. As previously mentioned, further strength could hint at some resistance in the 1000-1100 zone.

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PANAMAX

In Week 50, the Panamax Index showed an interesting chart after the surge and rest of the previous two weeks.

Dipping to 1445 at one point, the index improved to a close of 1478, leaving a small lower wick on the weekly candlestick – not very bearish but something to keep an eye on.
The RSI stayed close to neutral at 43.56 as the MACD lagged and further weakened its bearishness.

After rising from our Week 46 support thoughts, our next upside resistance target is around the 1575-1600 area. All this seems to give more support to our previous consolidation thoughts, but as before we are still watching for weakness and keeping an eye on the low 1400s.

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CAPESIZE

After a volatile couple of weeks where the Capesize Index fully eclipsed the ominous-looking Week 48, the Week 50 chart was quite staid by comparison. However with the closing fix at 2383, the index poked quite hard at our upside resistance ideas in the low 2000s.

The candlesticks gave us a small lower wick for Week 50, hinting at a possible lack of strength to push through our resistance thoughts but the RSI gained to the stronger side of neutral at 49.65, and the MACD closed in further on the signal line.

The MACD has come up short on going bullish before, (see Week 44) so for now we’re watching these lower 2000s for a consolidation in Capesize strength.

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Handies and Panamaxes pause, Supras and Capes gain (a little). Baltic Dry Indices – Week 49 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index took a rest in Week 49, halting its downtrend just above our 615-620 support ideas from a month ago. Barely visible on the chart, the index closed at 625, down a whole single point on the week.

The RSI continued its downtrend to 69.33, still not far off peakishness. The MACD faded to park itself squarely on the signal line, just on the edge of bearishness.

Perhaps we’re at a small crossroads for the Handies, and it remains to be seen if some support consolidates itself. A gloomy resolution could give us 500-550 as our next downside support. For now however, there may be some inclination to retain some buoyancy in the 600-650 zone.

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SUPRAMAX

For Week 49 a glimmer of hope was seen in the Supramax Index, as it maintained a modest climb to 953 at the Friday fix. Our 960-975 support thoughts from back in Week 44 may be influencing the index at this point.

The RSI continued to wander into bottoming territory
at 23.75, and the lagging, negatively-valued MACD kept weakening in its bearish path.

As these patterns continue to work out, perhaps we’re seeing possible consolidation above our next downside support
target in the 900 region. Any recovery at these levels could see some resistance around the 1000-1150 area.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax Index squeezed into a tight range of five points for Week 49, displaying some indecision after the upward boost of Week 48. The index closed as it opened at 1469.

The RSI hovered around neutrality at 43.56 and the lagging MACD stayed weakly bearish, neither giving up much in the way of directional clues.

This slight fizzle might hint at some consolidation above our low-1400s support thoughts from Week 45, but we’re keeping an eye on the 1350-1375 zone in case of more weakness.

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CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index took a 559-point surge upwards in Week 49, in a range which completely enveloped that of the ominous-looking Week 48 candlestick.

The action nudged the RSI up into neutral territory and made the MACD bend a little further towards the signal line and bullishness, hinting at the possibility of more index strength.

So far our consolidation ideas in the Capes have been borne out a little. However, the index has now bumped up against our low-2000s resistance ideas for two consecutive weeks. It will be worth watching to see if the index manages to push upwards through this zone.

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Supramax plunge losing momentum? Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 48 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index closed down once more at 626 for Week 48. Traversing a tighter 7-point range, the index was left just above the 600-615 support zone we spoke of back in our Week 45 comments.

The RSI showed a slightly off-peak 71.68 while the MACD continued its fade towards the signal line and bearishness.

However, the narrower range and weaker RSI may be hints of slowing downward momentum, and the MACD hasn’t crossed the signal line just yet. Let’s keep an eye on that possible 600-615 support for the moment.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 48 the Supramax Index stayed in a tight range, losing downward momentum, and even recovered two points up from the week’s low to a 944 close.

The RSI strayed towards bottoming territory at 29.54, and
the MACD ‘s lagging bearishness weakened a little as it pushed further into negative values.

As we mentioned previously, perhaps our old 960-975 support ideas from Week 44 will exert a little influence. At the moment however, the index is also close to our next downside support target around the 900 region. If momentum continues to fade, could the index see some solid footing around present levels?

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PANAMAX

A welcome snap-back for the Panamax Index was seen in Week 48, easing our gloomier thoughts. This lent some credence to our support ideas in the low 1400s from Week 45’s comments.

On a 1463 close for the week, the RSI fell to neutral at 40.12 and the MACD continued to show some weakness in its bearish trend.

Should support in the low 1400s continue to firm up, our upside resistance target would be in the 1575-1600 zone.

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CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index continued its fickle ways in Week 48. Surging into, then bouncing off our upside resistance
thoughts
in the low 2000s early in the week, the Capes retreated sharply to a 1755 close for the week.

On the candlestick chart we see a classic Shooting Star candle, although the preceding uptrend was more whiplash than “trend”. The RSI moved further away from bottoming territory and strayed closer to neutral at 33.13. The still-negative MACD went flat and gave a small nod towards to the signal line and possible bullishness.

For now our Cape consolidation ideas seem to be playing out, but with no confirmation as yet on the bearish-looking candlesticks. Keeping an eye on our 800-850 support thoughts may still be warranted, with possible upside resistance still in the 2000 area.

Summer Break – Capes up, Panamax rests, Supras & Handies tumble.

As the Capesize Index took a surge last week (daring to poke through our upside resistance, no less), and while the Handies weakened along with the Supras, the Panamaxes took a pause.

For the next few weeks, Superior Maritime’s spot (or blemish?) on the web will be taking a summer break.

As we head off to the non-internet Canadian wilderness, we wish you a safe and happy summer. We’ll be catching up with you and the Baltic Indices again soon. Stay tuned to the www.supermar.info blog and @SuperiorMar on Twitter – we’ll be in touch.

Until then, keep your nose above water…

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BALTIC DRY BULK INDICES

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BALTIC TANKER INDICES

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Supras took a dive, Panamaxes rested. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 26 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

Week 26’s Handysize Index carried on in sideways mode, although weakness in the index appeared stronger at first glance. Bumping along the bottom of our 575 – 600 support zone, the Handies made a fresh low in their present channel at 581.

The MACD reinforced its weak bearishness with a small
crook downwards as it approached negative values, and the RSI took an interesting plunge close to possible bottoming numbers at 23.68.

Does this mean we still have some upward sentiment in the index? Possibly. As we mentioned for Week 25, the test could be the index taking a poke at the 550 level. In that situation, the 575 – 600 area could become our upside resistance.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 26 the Supramax Index backed our Week 25 thoughts of weakness, to say the least. Declining from its 1085 open
to a 1042 close, the index tagged our possible support ideas around 1075 early in the week, barely registering a pause on the way down. The index headed towards our old 975 – 1000 support area that we first identified back in Week 14 , so perhaps we’ll see another test of this zone after such a tentative-looking up-trend over the past few months.

Following the drop was the RSI‘s plunge below neutral to 34.63, and a MACD that finally crossed the signal line after skimming along just above it for some time; bearish signals maybe, but things could moderate somewhat.

Another bold run downwards may put the RSI in bottoming territory, but it’s early days yet. First, let’s see how the index reacts around that 975 – 1000 area, and if any support firms up and pushes back.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax Index showed a tight range for Week 26, closing at 1336, barely down on a 1339 open. The low for the week was early-on at 1321, the index recovering from there.

Testing the bottom of our old 1350 – 1400 attraction/support thoughts, the Panamaxes rested in their bearishness, maybe offering some hope for a pullout from the Week 25 dive. The RSI, offering no hints, stayed just below neutral at 36.58 as the barely bullish MACD entered limbo, still relatively flat after its cross-over of the signal line in Week 24.

The hope remains that a return to the previous wide channel is building in this index, although the general appearance is of weakness. Let’s see if that 1350 – 1400 area continues as a index pivot point of sorts. Should weakness assert itself, our next downside target is in the 1075 – 1100 area.

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CAPESIZE

For Week 26 the Capesize Index followed our Week 25 stair-stepper thoughts well above our 1500 – 1700 support ideas, closing at 2170 for the week.

The RSI pushed to 61.08 – not too peaky – and the MACD steadied in its weak bullishness, still in negative values.

Both indicators still seem to be hinting at some slight

upward incentive.

Back in Weeks 23 and 24, we spoke of slowing momentum, and possible mild upward pressure in the index. For the moment, the index seems to be consolidating between these sentiments, with our 2500 – 2700 upside resistance not far away.

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Capes power-dive, Panamaxes weaken further. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 21 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

Week 21 in the Handysize Index was a lack-lustre spell showing little change despite Week 20’s small
white candlestick. A small drop to a close at 587 may be some continued flirting with our 575 – 600 support ideas,
and the index did a fair job of supporting itself for the first few days.

The MACD continued in weak bearish mode, but the RSI continued to diverge upwards, climbing to 66.82, still healthy and perhaps hinting at upward pressure.

If the handies are in the doldrums, all well and good,
but if the 575 – 600 zone proves to have support strength there may be cause for optimism.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index for Week 21 gave continued hints at slowing momentum despite Week 20’s small surge, as it closed slightly off its 1074 high at 1071.

Just below our 1100 – 1200 upside resistance target from Week 12, the RSI continued in the mid-70s, quite close to peakish territory. The MACD stayed very weakly bullish, flattening out once more but just staying on the bullish side of the signal line.

Overall, the index may be signalling imminent weakness, and also isn’t far from previous peaks in Week 12 and October 2017. We’ll continue to watch for further weakness, but let’s see if the latest upswing consolidates itself.

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PANAMAX

For Week 21, the Panamax Index poked us in the eye and took a solid dip below our 1250 support thoughts, closing the week
down at 1187.

Breaking below the bottom of the channel we’ve seen over the past few months, the Panamaxes are now around a nine-month low. The RSI offers little comfort, staying close to neutral value, with no hints at upward divergence.

There may still be support potential in this 1150 – 1200 area, and the heavily negative MACD hints at some upward pressure counter-acting the recent weakness, despite its continued plunge. A heavier breakthrough past 1150 may reinforce the gloom, however.

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CAPESIZE

For Week 21 the Capesize Index gapped down and took another sizable drop to close at 1395, continuing the retreat from our 2500 – 2700 upside resistance zone. Our thoughts of possible support in the 1500 – 1750 zone appeared as a mere blip in the chart mid-week as the Capes charged downwards.

The RSI retreated back towards neutrality at 47.37, while the MACD, still in negative values, took a strong hook down towards the signal line with no hint at upward pressure yet.

Our next support target for the volatile Capes is down around the 600 – 675 zone, although the last power-dive for the Capes pulled out in the low 800s, well above our 500 support thoughts. Let’s see if the same occurs in this latest plunge, and some upward pressure begins to assert itself. It’s possible the Capes don’t have much further to go, but of course don’t quote us on that…

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Baltic Dry Indices: Week 17 technical commentary

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index ran strongly downhill in Week 17, bringing the index just short of our downside warning target of 575 – 600. Closing down 16 points on the week at 605, this run downwards was hinted at last week, but as usual we had hoped for better.

The RSI stayed on the highside of neutral, but stayed away from peaky territory by retreating to 54.15. The MACD took a stronger bend towards its signal line and bearishness; very close, but no crossing of the line yet.

The coming weeks could tell us if our old 625 – 630 zone will pull the index upwards, or if the 575 – 600 region proves a more powerful attraction.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index showed a 15 point climb in Week 17 and closed at 1042, confirming our hopes from Week 15 and finding some footing.

This robust rebound off our 975 – 1000 support area may have some momentum yet, having shown a tiny gap-up of two points between Week 16’s close and Week 17’s open.

Reinforcing those ideas is a RSI that consolidated somewhat high, but not too peakish, at 62.62. The MACD, while still weakly bullish, took a flat trajectory that shied away from the signal line a little. Hopefully these hints may give some consolidation to this up-move and offer some foundation.

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PANAMAX

For Week 17 the Panamax Index started with a small gap down, recovering a little later in the week to close at 1275.
Perhaps that’s a hint that the index could stay within the widely-swinging channel stretching back to October 2017.

On the chart, that little wick sticking down from Week 17’s candlestick might be a clue. We are still watching our downside warning zone around 1250 for breakthroughs, however.

The RSI continued in the mid-40s, basically neutral. The MACD continued its bearish plunge, although now lagging and into negative values and possibly providing a little upward pressure.

Let us see if that 1250 level shows some signs of supporting the index – that would be a good thing.

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CAPESIZE

For Week 17, the Capesize Index gave us a nice gap up on the open and a run up to a 2251 close. As always with the volatile Capes, the tendency to blow through expectations in either direction is a constant feature. As we previously mentioned, the break through our barely-noticeable 1500 – 1750 resistance area made us think that our old 2500 – 2700 upside resistance might become a factor again.

The MACD, following the surge, crossed to the bullish side of the signal line, and the RSI rose from neutral figures to 60.76. For now, we’re watching for action between 1750 and 2700 that might suggest a consolidation somewhere in that zone.

Another upsurge might give us a RSI in the peaking zone and maybe some push back around that 2500 – 2700 resistance idea. Of course with the Capes, that can mean another 1000-point flash (*gasp*) while the technical analysts, in shock once again, vainly clutch their pearls.