Shipping – Maritime – Stocks – Commodity
For the next while, Superior Maritime’s internet spot (or blemish?) will be taking a summer break.
As we head off to the non-internet Canadian wilderness, we wish you a safe and happy summer. We’ll be catching up with you and dry bulk shipping again soon. Stay tuned to superiormar.com and @SuperiorMar on Twitter – we’ll be in touch.
Until then, keep your nose above water…
by Dave Walker
BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures*, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com
$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.
For Week 30 $BDRY confirmed our upside $18.00 tentative resistance target and spent the week consolidating. So far $BDRY seems to have some support from our Week 29 $16.50 – $17.00 ideas, with the fund closing the week at $16.59.
Our RSI retreated with the consolidation to 85.52, still in quite high territory for BDRY. The MACD carried on climbing, yet to acknowledge the fund’s pause.
It may be early days yet, but the pause in $BDRY has us casting an eye over our old $12 – $14 resistance/support zone as BDRY gingerly finds its way amongst weakening dry bulk futures markets.
Baltic Supramax Index, Week 30 2019.
Baltic Panamax Index, Week 30 2019.
Baltic Capesize Index, Week 30 2019.
For insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on Supramax, Panamax and Capesize positions.
*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY.
by Dave Walker
BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com
$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.
A small gap up and a close at 13.15 marked the slow climb in $BDRY for Week 26, with the fund showing some backing from some new-found dry bulk market optimism. Freight Investor Services put it succinctly – “hotter than a billy goat with a blowtorch.”
With the fund’s up-move, our RSI pushed higher to 75.41, the indicator giving further peakish indications even with such a slow steady move upwards. The MACD, just shy of zero values, continued its bullish trend.
The overall bullishness in nearby dry bulk futures has had a positive effect on BDRY as it continues its long, slow push into our $12 – $14 resistance ideas. Should the positivity continue in BDRY, our Week 22 $10.50 – $11.00 support thoughts may consolidate further, giving a decent foundation.
For some insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on Supramax, Panamax and Capesize positions.
Baltic Supramax Index, Week 26.
Baltic Panamax Index, Week 26.
Baltic Capesize Index, Week 26.
*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY
by Dave Walker
$BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com
$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.
Still nudging at our $12 -$14 resistance zone from Week 18, $BDRY reached a high of $12.65 but closed off the week at $12.30.
Our RSI kept climbing, reaching 60.54 as $BDRY made barely noticeable highs. The MACD almost reached its zero point, both indicators still showing some strength although the RSI causes a little peakish concern.
As $BDRY continues to poke at our Week 18 resistance ideas, our thoughts of possible support building around $10.50 – $11.00 are still there. A glance at last week’s Baltic Shipping Index charts (see below) shows a drop-off in the Supramax and Panamax sectors while the Capesize category surged, tempering the others’ weakness. BDRY’s sideways travel may linger a while.
Week 23 Baltic Supramax Shipping Index
Week 23 Baltic Panamax Shipping Index
Week 23 Baltic Capesize Shipping Index
*Disclaimer: Superior Maritime does not hold any stock in $BDRY.
by Dave Walker
$BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com
$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.
Week 20 saw $BDRY retreat slightly, in line with our $12 – $14 resistance ideas, to close at $11.84, down from a $12.41 open.
Our RSI took an interesting streak upwards to 55.04 while the MACD approached positive values, although weakening a little from the Week 19 retreat. The continued charge of the RSI could suggest some building strength, but the overall feel hints at possible consolidation as momentum fades.
It remains to be seen if $BDRY is taking a rest or will move on to greater things. A quick glance at the weekly Baltic Capesize Index below (50% BDRY weighting) shows a slight loss of momentum, although within a generally positive Week 20.
Downside support may still be in the $9.00 range for $BDRY, with unconfirmed support possibly building around current levels. Volatility in dry bulk shipping indices being a fact of life (there, we’ve given a nod to
those nasty fundamentals again), we can always cast a hopeful eye at the iron ore price and China’s lowered port stockpiles.
Week 20 Baltic Capesize Shipping Index:
Week 20 Baltic Panamax Shipping Index:
*Disclaimer: Superior Maritime does not hold any stock in $BDRY.
by Dave Walker
Why add Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF to our Baltic Dry Index commentaries? Well, we’d like to dig deeper into shipping through this ETF tied to dry bulk freight futures. At just over a year since its inception, the fund focuses on the nearest quarter in dry bulk forward freight agreements. Will our observation of BDRY offer some noise-free insights amid the flood of information out there? Please join us as we explore*.
$BDRY profile: ” The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight. ” Source: drybulketf.com
$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%
The Breakwave ETF continued on its recent recovery march to close Week 18 at 12.25. As the Baltic Capesize Index was striking lows below 100 in Week 14, BDRY had seen support just above the $9.00 area since early March.
At 37.90 the RSI approached neutral ground, having steadily climbed from heavily bottoming territory in recent weeks. The MACD followed on bullishly after a solid crossing of the signal line a couple of weeks ago.
After careful shuffling of our Tarot cards and casting of chicken-bones, BDRY may be pushing into our upside resistance target of $12 – $14. This region served as wavering support through late 2018 until weakness took over in early 2019.
The Week 18 move in this latest recovery attempt gapped up at the open but showed little progress thereafter, hinting at possible slower momentum. Should BDRY push further through these $12 – $14 resistance thoughts we may still see some consolidation around this zone.
As mentioned above BDRY has a 50% weighting towards the Capesize FFAs, and the Baltic Capesize Index itself has seen recent fragility. Even as that index surges (Week 18 Capesize & Panamax charts below), we’ll keep a jaundiced eye on that previous $9.00 support in BDRY.
*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY