Panamax flash in the pan? Baltic Dry Indices: Week 6 commentary.

HANDYSIZE

While dropping to a teeth-grinding 290 in Week 6, the Handysize Index actually eased in its recent plunge. After gapping down on the week’s open the overall performance could be called….um…less abysmal – a mere 11 points down.

What optimism might be gleaned at this point? The RSI firmly at zero and lagging MACD at heavily negative values might suggest a rest is coming, but the next month appears rough.

A recovery to our Week 4 target in the low 400s may be possible but some recovery in cargo fundamentals is needed.

Yes, fundamentals; there – we said it.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 6 the Supramax Index gapped down at a 438 open, but declining rather than plunging to a 415 close; a somewhat less than horrendous week.

The RSI stayed reasonably flat at 4.30 as the heavily negative MACD lagged behind a possible approaching pause, both indicators well into bottoming territory.

With successive targets being blown through in the Supras’ dive, the possibility of these low 400s levels offering any consolidation seems weak. However, this is the first sign of index easing in weeks.

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PANAMAX

Alone amongst the dry bulk indices, the Panamax Index gained in Week 6 to a 574 fix from a 552 open.

If this is some belated support from our old target in the low 700s, it’s a dim flash in the pan. The RSI rose a little to 9.35 with the move and the heavily negative MACD nudged at the -200s, both indicators into their nether regions.

Support may be possible in the upper 300s, perhaps into the low 400s area, but let’s not build too quickly on this small (and lonely) bright spot in the dry-bulk gloom.

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CAPESIZE

With a 792 Friday fix for Week 6, the Capesize Index pushed some way through our 1000-1050 downside target with a gap-down open. The index is now just below the 824 low point of 2018. With a less profound plunge than the other indices so far, the late-to-the-funeral Capes showed some remarkable restraint.

The RSI at 31.58 is coming within sight of bottoming territory, and the MACD of course continued down unabated after its bearish crossing of the signal line.

Perhaps our thoughts of some support in the 500s will come to pass, although we’re still watching into the 300s given the physical circumstances out there. We’ve already used the words “remarkable restraint” in a Cape index context: we shouldn’t jinx things any further.

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Tankers fading – Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 6 commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

Closing Week 6 at 624, the Clean Tanker index continued to lose strength. After a gap-down open below our previous 650-675 support some bearish momentum seems to be building, giving our previous suspicions some weight.

The RSI at 53.90 maintained the only hope of some continued strength, while the MACD stayed bearish after recently crossing the signal line.

The 650-675 zone may now become an upside resistance area should the present weakness continue. For downside targets, we’re watching the low 500s area for some support but hold out some hope for the 650-675 area to still exert some influence.

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DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 6 the Dirty Tanker index opened with a heavy gap down and fixed down at 795. Sharp-eyed chart watchers will note we’re now knocking at the door of 2018 index levels.

The RSI at 24.78 faded into bottoming territory while the MACD continued its uninterrupted fall, lagging but still positively valued.

There may be some room to fall yet, although we’re still holding out for some kind of pause or even consolidation around our low 700s target.

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Continuing carnage – Baltic Dry Indices: Week 5 commentary.

A HAPPY & PROSPEROUS

LUNAR NEW YEAR!

(Even if it seems hollow in the face of these dry bulk numbers….)

HANDYSIZE

For Week 5 the Handysize index carnage continued, once again gapping down at the open and even accelerating the plunge to a 311 fix, as can be seen on the candlestick chart. With most of the indices in a race to the bottom ahead of the Lunar New Year, all bets appear to be off.

No influence from our previous downside target in the low 400s was seen. Any projections for future targets were reached and surpassed within the weekly period. The RSI was not only in single digits, it reached a single digit at barely above a value of 1.

The heavily negative and lagging MACD also plunged, with
indicators giving no clear idea of an upcoming resting zone for possibly the next week or so.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax index also continued its swan dive in Week 5 and perhaps stating the obvious, our pessimism about any support developing was confirmed. Closing at a 450 fix with no lower target in sight as yet, the upcoming Lunar Year could well extend the gloominess.

With the RSI at 4.20 and the lagging MACD plunging well into negative values, an overall wait-and-see attitude pervades the atmosphere. The only saving grace may be the relative leveling-off of the RSI indicator,which may hint at an as-yet-unseen consolidation area.

The indices are in the basement along with their indicators, and those nasty industry fundamentals will have to run their course.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax index followed the Handies and Supras in Week 5, accelerating its plunge to a 560 Friday fix. As expected, any influence from the low 700s area never materialized.

Like the Supramax index the Panamax RSI also showed some consistency, leveling out somewhat at 7.19. This small divergence in the RSI may hint at some kind of upcoming hesitation in the headlong dive. The lagging MACD followed the index as it plunged further into negative bottoming (bottomless?) values.

We were tempted to suggest a downside target (“area of
influence” perhaps?) in the low 500s zone, but the Panamaxes are dangerously close to that value now.
An understatement maybe, but confidence is not high.

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CAPESIZE

In Week 5, the Capesize index was seemingly infected by the malaise in its sister indices. Buckling at the knees and dropping to our 1000-1050 downside target area, the index closed at 1014. Whether the 1000-1050 area gives any support remains to be seen in the face of the overall dry bulk shipping collapse.

Having broken out of the past month’s doldrums, the Capes showed an RSI dropping slightly below neutral at 37.29 and a MACD that completed its crossing of the signal line to the bearish side.

To acknowledge the fundamentals, the re-shuffling in world trade, Chinese iron ore specifications and also the tragic Brazilian tailings-dam disaster are no doubt having an effect. With the present grim situation a downside target in the mid-300s area isn’t out of the running, with our hope for a rest in the 500s somewhere.

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Tankers take a rest – Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 4 technical commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

Week 4 had the Clean Tanker index adhering tightly to a narrow band right at our 650-675 support ideas, seemingly unwilling to test below 650. The index gained on the week, climbing fairly steadily to a 672 Friday fix.

The RSI followed, gaining a little to 55.62 as the MACD crossed just over its signal line to bearishness. The possibility may exist of the index continuing in the doldrums for a short while.

Any weakness around the 650 area will have us eyeing the 475-500 zone for downward breaks. Should stronger upward forces prevail, which seems the least likely at the moment, our target is around the low 800s area.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 4 the Dirty Tanker index took a rest and even finished the week slightly up at 877, leaving a small lower wick on the week’s candlestick. Our thoughts of some intermediate support may have kicked in a little early.

However the index isn’t far below our previous 900-925 support ideas, which may be exerting some pull. The RSI lost influence, edging closer to neutral while the lagging MACD continued its bearish dive.

It remains to be seen what influence, if any, that 900-925
zone might be having.

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Doom and/or gloom. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 4 commentary.

HANDYSIZE

Week 4 saw more gloominess for the Handysize Index, with yet another gap-down open. The headlong charge ran down
to a horrendous fix of 395, as the index poked a little way through our hopes of some low-400s consolidation.

The single-digit RSI at 6.04 and negatively-valued MACD reached deep into their respective basements however, giving a small ray of hope that some support may materialize.

For feelings of deja-vu refer to our Week 8 – 2018 commentary, although that particular gloomy spell was cured by the post-Golden Week pickup. In this case, we haven’t even reached the Chinese New Year yet. Let’s see if the low 400s levels exert any support influence and shed some light in the gloom.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index looked as equally gloomy as its Handy counterpart in Week 4, also gapping down and fixing abysmally.

The 576 close offered little in the way of developing support, even as the RSI bottomed at 4.76 hand-in-hand with a deeply negative MACD. Nothing in the way of consolidation was seen, as possible support hints in the 700 area were punched through.

As with Week 3 and the low 700s, our possible support thoughts have again been reached as the index taps at the 550 level. Are the indices heading for a repeat of the 2016 carnage? We’re not there yet, but anything in the way of developing support appears bleak for the moment.

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PANAMAX

For Week 4 in the Panamax Index, we saw gloomy repetition of the Supra and Handy collapse as the index fell to a
748 fix on yet another gap-down open.

The RSI value fell into single digits at 8.49, well into bottoming territory. The MACD hit heavily negative values as the index plunged, both indicators pointing to their low points. Of course the index took no notice of such paltry technicalities, giving our 900-925 support ideas short shrift.

By the end of Week 4 the index had already closed on our next downside target in the lower 700s, which gave little hope of any index rests developing. For now, any influence from the 700 zone may be negligible.

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CAPESIZE

In Week 4 the Capesize Index once again stayed just below our low 2000s upside resistance. Showing a dark candlestick
for the week, the index mostly eclipsed Week 3’s range to fix at 1730.

This gave an RSI straying into neutral territory at 44.68 and an MACD that wavered on its signal line, barely slipping over to the bearish side.

Should volatility in the Capes be returning, we’re watching this down-slip for a reach towards 1000-1050, with the mid-1400s as a possible moderating influence. For any upward motion, we’re watching for the low 2000s to re-assert resistance.

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Tankers take a rest – Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 4 technical commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

Week 4 had the Clean Tanker index adhering tightly to a narrow band right at our 650-675 support ideas, seemingly unwilling to test below 650. The index gained on the week, climbing fairly steadily to a 672 Friday fix.

The RSI followed, gaining a little to 55.62 as the MACD crossed just over its signal line to bearishness. The possibility may exist of the index continuing in the doldrums for a short while.

Any weakness around the 650 area will have us eyeing the 475-500 zone for downward breaks. Should stronger upward forces prevail, which seems the least likely at the moment, our target is around the low 800s area.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 4 the Dirty Tanker index took a rest and even finished the week slightly up at 877, leaving a small lower wick on the week’s candlestick. Our thoughts of some intermediate support may have kicked in a little early.

However the index isn’t far below our previous 900-925 support ideas, which may be exerting some pull. The RSI lost influence, edging closer to neutral while the lagging MACD continued its bearish dive.

It remains to be seen what influence, if any, that 900-925
zone might be having.

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Plunge upon plunge…except for the Capes: Baltic Dry Bulk Indices – Week 2 2019

Well, a week or two certainly makes a difference, doesn’t it? Our last commentary was for Week 50, 2018 and we posted dry bulk and tanker charts through the holiday period, watching as the black marks began to pile up. Our friend Jerome Sorrel summed it up well on the DryBulkPelagos blog – “the sound of the deflating shipping market.
Let’s poke around and see what we can sort out from all this shipping nonsense…

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HANDYSIZE

For Week 2/2019 the Handysize Index gapped down in even heavier fashion than previous weeks, plunging to
a 524 fix on a near-40-point drop.
In our Week 50/2018 commentary we discussed that the Handies might be at a crossroads, with some pessimism that a drop to the 500-525 zone might be in the works.

The lagging, bearish MACD entered negative-value territory as the RSI approached bottoming values at 23.35.

With these values and the index hard up against our 500-525 support ideas, some hope of arresting the plunge may be there. However, it will be hard to visualize in the face of such a headlong dive in the index.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 2/2019 the Supramax Index went off the edge hand-in-hand with the Handies. The index gapped down from Week 1’s 946 to a 933 open for Week 2. A further 91-point drop on the week brought the Supras down to an 842 fix.

In our previous comments we noted some possible attraction in the 960-975 area, but that any weakness might result in a downward run to 800-850 territory. Week 2’s action puts the index squarely in this lower zone with a well-bottomed RSI at 9.82.

Strengthened negative values were seen for the heavily-lagging, bearish MACD. While these indicators might suggest it may be time for a rest, the 800-850 zone will require monitoring for any further weakness in this heavy down-move.

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PANAMAX

Week 2 / 2019’s Panamax Index took a page from the Supras and Handies, plunging over 160 points on a gap-down open to fix at 1137. We had previously opined that there might be some upside resistance around 1575-1600, however the index didn’t make any forays above 1500 before taking a dive.

Going back to Week 43/2018, as the index declined the Panamaxes gained only fitful support for the remainder of 2018. This push down through our hoped-for support in the low 1400s has put the RSI at a bottom-region value of 19.74.

Gaining some bearish strength with the plunge, the MACD pushed harder into negative values. This may indicate some braking action on the Panamaxes’ downhill run, but nothing is visible in actual index action as yet.

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CAPESIZE

Being the odd man out in dry bulk for Week 2 / 2019, the Capesize Index showed some very sedate action. Closing at a 1966 fix, it gave some credence to our Week 50 / 2018 ideas, i.e. that there wasn’t the strength to stay above our low-2000s resistance zone.

The Week 2 candlestick shows a hint of index weakness, with the noticeable upper wick. The RSI maintained some above-neutral strength at 49.57, while the MACD rose slightly to park itself on top of the signal line, perhaps hinting at a little bullish tendency.

Bumping along under that low-2000s resistance zone,
the Capes have enjoyed a little spell in limbo over the holiday period. Our low-side support thoughts are around the 1050-1000 zone, as we suspiciously eye this rare calm in the Capes.

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Handies and Panamaxes pause, Supras and Capes gain (a little). Baltic Dry Indices – Week 49 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index took a rest in Week 49, halting its downtrend just above our 615-620 support ideas from a month ago. Barely visible on the chart, the index closed at 625, down a whole single point on the week.

The RSI continued its downtrend to 69.33, still not far off peakishness. The MACD faded to park itself squarely on the signal line, just on the edge of bearishness.

Perhaps we’re at a small crossroads for the Handies, and it remains to be seen if some support consolidates itself. A gloomy resolution could give us 500-550 as our next downside support. For now however, there may be some inclination to retain some buoyancy in the 600-650 zone.

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SUPRAMAX

For Week 49 a glimmer of hope was seen in the Supramax Index, as it maintained a modest climb to 953 at the Friday fix. Our 960-975 support thoughts from back in Week 44 may be influencing the index at this point.

The RSI continued to wander into bottoming territory
at 23.75, and the lagging, negatively-valued MACD kept weakening in its bearish path.

As these patterns continue to work out, perhaps we’re seeing possible consolidation above our next downside support
target in the 900 region. Any recovery at these levels could see some resistance around the 1000-1150 area.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax Index squeezed into a tight range of five points for Week 49, displaying some indecision after the upward boost of Week 48. The index closed as it opened at 1469.

The RSI hovered around neutrality at 43.56 and the lagging MACD stayed weakly bearish, neither giving up much in the way of directional clues.

This slight fizzle might hint at some consolidation above our low-1400s support thoughts from Week 45, but we’re keeping an eye on the 1350-1375 zone in case of more weakness.

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CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index took a 559-point surge upwards in Week 49, in a range which completely enveloped that of the ominous-looking Week 48 candlestick.

The action nudged the RSI up into neutral territory and made the MACD bend a little further towards the signal line and bullishness, hinting at the possibility of more index strength.

So far our consolidation ideas in the Capes have been borne out a little. However, the index has now bumped up against our low-2000s resistance ideas for two consecutive weeks. It will be worth watching to see if the index manages to push upwards through this zone.

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Clean Tankers continue to surge. Baltic Tanker Indices – Week 49 technical commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

The Clean Tanker index took a near-50 point gap up to open Week 49, and surged to close at 894. Not having seen this level since 2010, the index seemed somewhat precarious with the RSI at 89.22.

The lagging MACD followed the surge of course, reaching a strongly positive value that may reinforce the precarious look of this index.

Will 1000 points be broken? Perhaps; the possibility of building support in the 725-750 area seems to be there, and the 1000 zone is our next upside resistance target.

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DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 49 the Dirty Tanker index climbed closer to our 1200-1225 upside resistance thoughts, the Friday fix being 1167.

The MACD wavered on its weakly bullish path, and the RSI sailed along at a high value of 86.29. Peakishness seems to be the general impression.

Knocking on the door of 2014 highs, the index may be developing the strength to test the 1200-1225 zone. Observing the peakish hints however, we are also keeping an eye on our 900-925 downside support target.

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