Panamaxes retreat from our resistance zone; Capes surge. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 23 commentary.

by Dave Walker


HANDYSIZE

For Week 23 the Handysize Index pushed into our low-400s resistance thoughts, rising steadily to a 412 fix.

Our RSI dropped a little further to a still-strong 55.19 and the MACD rose further away from the signal-line, lifted by the index action.

A rise from the recent shallow trough appears possible given the general mood of the index, although the Handies are now into our upside resistance thoughts from Week 20. However the overall strength may be there to push further. Should index strength continue to build, we have a tentative upside target in the 475 – 500 area.


SUPRAMAX

Still retreating from our 675 – 775 resistance zone, in Week 23 the Supramax Index fell a further 29 points to a 719 fix.

Our RSI declined towards neutrality at 44.68 while the MACD took a slight diversion towards the signal-line and bearishness.

All may not be lost for the Supras however, with a hint of possible resistance building just below present levels. Weeks 15 – 16’s turning point around 710 – 715 may be an area to watch for support, and the Supras are on that threshold now.


PANAMAX

Retreating to a 1213 fix for Week 23, the Panamax Index stalled and fell away from our Week 19 1350 – 1400 upside resistance target. Reinforcing our previous thoughts of peakiness in the index, the Panamaxes took a 112-point drop.

Our RSI, still in peakish values, declined to 75.07 as the MACD took an abrupt pause and flattened out with the index drop.

At first glance, the index drop seems somewhat stronger than the possible consolidation mentioned in our Week 21 comments. If the Panamax weakness builds, we’re watching our Week 17 target in the 975 – 1000 zone for support.


CAPESIZE

For Week 23 the Capesize Index boldly reached into our Week 20 1800 – 2000 upside resistance ideas and fixed at 1862, casting shade on our previous mutterings of slowing momentum. The index may be mimicking the action around our 1000 – 1200 resistance ideas from the dark days of Week 14. That target served as a mere ladder-rung for the Capes in Weeks 18 – 19.

Our RSI reached well into its peaking zone at 79.40 while the MACD grew more bullish, slightly diverging from the signal-line.

As before we’re cautious around this Week 20 1800 – 2000 target, even with peakish-looking indicators. The Capes have thumbed their noses at us before and surged to greater heights, (or deeper lows) with resistance and support targets often barely-acknowledged stepping stones in this volatile index. All the same, we’re watching closely now that the index has entered our resistance target zone.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF : Week 23 commentary.

by Dave Walker

$BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


Still nudging at our $12 -$14 resistance zone from Week 18, $BDRY reached a high of $12.65 but closed off the week at $12.30.

Our RSI kept climbing, reaching 60.54 as $BDRY made barely noticeable highs. The MACD almost reached its zero point, both indicators still showing some strength although the RSI causes a little peakish concern.

As $BDRY continues to poke at our Week 18 resistance ideas, our thoughts of possible support building around $10.50 – $11.00 are still there. A glance at last week’s Baltic Shipping Index charts (see below) shows a drop-off in the Supramax and Panamax sectors while the Capesize category surged, tempering the others’ weakness. BDRY’s sideways travel may linger a while.


Week 23 Baltic Supramax Shipping Index


Week 23 Baltic Panamax Shipping Index


Week 23 Baltic Capesize Shipping Index


*Disclaimer: Superior Maritime does not hold any stock in $BDRY.


Capes & Supras surge. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 17 commentary.

by Dave Walker


HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index decline shrank even further in the 4-day Week 17, showing a very tight 3-point range to fix at 389, almost level with the previous week’s fix. What optimism may be drawn from this is hard to say.

The RSI climbed into divergence, forging up through neutrality and maybe offering further optimism. As with previous weeks the MACD has cruised along almost level, staying just above the signal line since crossing it in Weeks 12-13.

Even with some slight technical optimism, there seems to be little in the way of upward-moving incentive so far. As we watch our lower 300s downside mark, the RSI divergence and slowed downtrend may yet brighten the day for the Handies.


SUPRAMAX

Gapping up almost 20 points at the Week 17 open, the Supramax Index surged almost 30 points to its 780 Friday fix. This puts the index just over the threshold of the 775 – 875 resistance ideas that have been on our radar since Week 7.

The RSI at 54.44 reinforced the index strength while the MACD pulled away from its lean towards the signal line and bullishly followed the rest of the pack.

After casting our chicken bones and testing the wind, the strength of this Supra surge could develop some support around the low 700s, up from our previous 550 – 600 thoughts from Week 15. Let’s see what strength our 775 – 875 resistance ideas may have after showing some muscle back in Week 13.


PANAMAX

A gap up and further strength marked the Panamax Index for Week 17. Fixing at 1186 after a 15-point climb, the progress through the week was steady. The tighter range may indicate some loss of index momentum, but recent strength has so far been on the Panamaxes’ side.

The RSI gained to a strong 57.07 to boost the index as the lagging MACD continued with little wavering to be seen. Back in Week 8 we made noises about possible resistances around the 900 / 975 – 1000 regions, both visible during the recent index climb. Registering as consolidating areas along the way, these points gave the stair-step effect we’ve seen in the Panamaxes before.

The overall strength in the Panamaxes may still have steam, and could see support building in the 975 -1000 zone. Our next resistance target is in the 1350 – 1400 region, although some attraction may still exist around that 975 – 1000 area.


CAPESIZE

For Week 17 the Capesize Index took a more Cape-like surge, with a sizable gap up and fix at 783 after climbing over 200 points. We’re watching with great interest as the index approaches our Week 14 upside resistance target in the 1000 – 1200 range.

The RSI surged with the index, climbing out of bottoming values to reach 29.71 and hopefully further strength. The heavily negative MACD barely crossed the signal line into bullish hopefulness.

While there may be no champagne corks popping yet, Week 17 was a ray of hope amidst the general Capesize uncertainty. Should the index strength continue, our 1000 – 1200 zone resistance thoughts may just be a chart footnote…..hopefully.


Dirty Tankers fizzle, Clean Tankers shine a light. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 17 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

The Clean Tanker Index took a positive turn on Week 17, eclipsing the previous week’s range to fix at 584. Our ideas of index optimism were somewhat reinforced but we won’t jump to conclusions yet, given such a small week 17 range. All the same, the chart could still have a very messy Morning Star Doji forming.

The RSI stayed in the neutral zone, rising slightly to 41.23 to maintain its diverging attitude. Following the index a little, the MACD‘s downtrend eased very slightly to more-or-less parallel its signal line.

Overall, the slight bullishness has the index consolidating around the pre-spike lows of Weeks 9 & 10. Even with a diverging RSI, this slight recovery just above our mid-500s support thoughts may be tempered by possible resistance in the 625 – 650 zone.


DIRTY TANKERS

The recent enthusiasm in the Dirty Tanker Index fizzled a little in Week 17, with the index fixing down overall at 640 after seeing a low of 635. Some consolidation may develop as a result of this stumble, and our wild ideas of a reach to 900-zone values are growing dimmer.

Still in nether region values, the RSI rose to 18.43 as the MACD kept on a more shallow trajectory, gradually closing on its signal line. Both indicators hint at weakening bearishness, but as with recent weeks the index has paid scant attention to them.

The index rise towards the end of the week was encouraging however, and as before we’re watching our 675 – 700 target for possible resistance. Should the Week 17 weakness persist, our mid-500s support thoughts from back in Week 12’s comments are always waiting for us.


Capesize force-majeure; Panamaxes surge: Baltic Dry Indices – Week 13 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Week 13’s action in the Handysize Index seemed to fall in line with our Week 12 ideas of slowing index momentum. Fixing at 464, just off the week’s high at 467, the index slowed as it closed on our upper 400s resistance thoughts.

The RSI crept very slightly up to an anaemic 34.73 while the MACD robustly crossed its signal line into bullish territory on the strength of the recent index climb. Whether the MACD is late to the party remains to be seen, as the indicator tends to lag the index motion a good deal.

In general, the slackening momentum suggests our upper 400s region may be asserting itself as resistance. If the Handies manage to push through this area, the watch would be on for new energy in the index….or lack thereof.


SUPRAMAX

For Week 13 the Supramax Index registered a black mark as it revisited the previous week’s range, fixing down at 813. Staying within our 775-875 resistance zone from Week 7 for the moment, the index reached a high early in the week of 833 to leave a slight shadow on the candlestick above the 830 open.

The RSI faded slightly, still neutral at 41.93 while the lagging MACD wavered very slightly after bullishly crossing its signal line in Week 12.

The general impression is of an index running out of steam, as it wanders within that 775-875 area. Let’s continue watching to see if a consolidation or pullback is at work, or if some bullish strength can be regained.


PANAMAX

Gapping up on Week 13’s open the Panamax Index showed another positive move. It rose to fix at 1102, following through despite our misgivings over the Weeks 10 & 11 charts. Our 900-zone resistance thoughts from Week 8 showed a little strength but didn’t confirm our darker thoughts.

The RSI showed a slow but steady climb to an-almost neutral 37.31. A still-negatively valued MACD stayed straight as an arrow in a bullish signal-line crossing.

Now that the Panamaxes have tested the upper reaches of Week 8’s 975-1000 resistance thoughts, some continued strength may be seen while we watch for any resistance assertion around present levels.


CAPESIZE


Thumbing its nose (bow?) at the rates in the face of Australian cyclones, Chinese coal delays and Brazilian iron-ore uncertainty, the Capesize Index sank once again in Week 13 with a basement-region fix at 150. Adding to that dead-cat-bounce feeling, the Capes gapped down to break the lows of the past month.

With the RSI in heavily bottoming territory at 14.27 and a heavily negative, lagging MACD, not much can be gleaned from gazing at chart indicators this close to the index zero-point.

At this point we can only twiddle our thumbs and wait with anticipation as all the weather, coal and iron-ore issues clear. The target we’re watching should the sun
suddenly rise on the Capes is in the 1000-1200 region, but for now we should probably declare force-majeure like everyone else.


Positive motion – except for the Capes. Baltic Dry Indices – Week 12 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Fore Week 12 the Handysize Index climbed once more on a small range to fix at 455 as it closed on our Week 8 resistance ideas in the top 400s to 500 zone.

The RSI, still gently rising, reached a relatively low 33.0 as the MACD drew very close to the signal line and possible bullishness should the line be crossed.

As the weekly range shrinks, we’re watching for signs of further strength that may push the index through the upper 400s, but overall the impression is of the index approaching resistance or a consolidation point.


SUPRAMAX

After Week 11’s rest, the Supramax Index took a hop upwards in Week 12 to fix at 826, still within our 775-875 upside resistance thoughts from Week 7.

Alongside the RSI that rose but stayed relatively neutral at 43.68, the MACD crossed solidly to the bullish side of the signal line as the index climbed.

With the index still within our 775-875 resistance range, once again it remains to be seen how much momentum remains with the Supramaxes, and if they have enough left to push any higher.


PANAMAX

In Week 12 the Panamax Index snapped out of its dithering mood and rose to a 1027 fix, putting our more pessimistic thoughts to rest for the moment.

The RSI climbed out of bottoming territory to 34.39 and the MACD parked squarely on its signal line, ready to cross the border into bullish country.

The Panamaxes have pushed through our lower 900s resistance ideas from Week 8 and are well into our secondary 975-1000 zone. These levels may become a resistance challenge, but so far the momentum is on the Panamaxes’ side.


CAPESIZE

For Week 12 the Capesize Index wiped out Week 11’s gains to close at 251, giving an impression over the past three weeks of the proverbial dead cat bounce. A candlestick hound might see a bullish Stick Sandwich, which might be the easy way out given the vicinity of the index to rock-bottom.

The RSI at 19.69 showed bottoming values, but the Capes’ RSI has been in single digits before. The MACD anaemically faded away from the signal line as the index dropped.

Still seemingly held up by our Week 9 support target in the mid-200s, the wait is on to see if a bullish streak is in the cards or if the Capes are doomed to a spell in the basement. With uncertainty that included stormy weather at Australian iron ore ports, the Capes can’t seem to catch a break. All the same we’re watching our 1200-1500 upside target should the sun decide to shine.

Clean Tankers, Dirty Tankers head in opposite directions. Baltic Tanker Indices – Week 12 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 12 the Clean Tanker Index saw a small opening gap up and launched into a welcome 63-point boost. With a Friday fix at 669, the majority of the move was seen towards the end of the week.

The RSI continued to fall into its bottoming region at 26.9, and the MACD, following the index, entered positive values and made a more bullish move towards the signal line.

Week 12’s action brought the index to the threshold of our previous 675-700 upside resistance ideas, so the watch is on to see if this zone has any influence.


DIRTY TANKERS

The Dirty Tanker Index plunged more forcefully in Week 12, giving more weight to our index weakness thoughts and possible support around 675-700.

With the RSI at 16.95 seen heavily into its lower regions and a fairly negative MACD, the overall feel is of an index that doesn’t have much downward room left.

Now that the index is within our 675-700 secondary support target our indicators suggest bottoming territory. Then again, if indices ever listened to indicators we’d all be rich. In this atmosphere, we’re beginning to cast an eye towards the mid-500s as the next possible support should all the bottoming signs be ignored.

Panamaxes dithered, Capes snapped back – a little. Baltic Dry Indices – Week 11 commentary

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

A small gap-up at the open for the Week 11 Handysize Index was tempered by a narrower range than seen previously; 13 points for the week as the index approached our upper 400s resistance thoughts from our Week 8 commentary.

The RSI rose slightly out of bottoming territory to 30.43 as the index momentum weakened, and the MACD stayed on course for a possible bullish intersection with its signal line.

Week 11’s index action may be hinting at building resistance as it reaches for the upper 400s, but there may be some continued strength in this up-move yet.


SUPRAMAX

Week 11 marked a pause in the Supramax Index after some shrinking momentum seen over the previous two weeks. Closing the week at 786 on a tiny 4-point range, the index paused in the middle of our 775-875 resistance zone mentioned back in Week 7.

The RSI lazily flattened out in neutral territory while the MACD crossed the signal line to the bullish side, offering some hope of further upward movement.


There may be room left in this zone, and it remains to be seen if the Supramaxes have the momentum reserved for a push through our 775-875 resistance thoughts from Week 7.


PANAMAX

For Week 11 the Panamax Index paused in indecisive mode, hitting an 823 low during the period but staying mostly close to the 883 fix for the week. Adding to the gloomy-sounding candlestick names from Week 10, what do we have here? A bearish Hanging Man?

Regardless, there seems to be a degree of uncertainty with the Panamaxes as the index dithers just below our 900-region lower resistance target. The RSI lingered near its bottoming zone at 27.31 while the MACD aimed at a possible bullish signal-line crossing.

The next test for the Panamaxes may be an attempt to get through our 900 resistance zone in Week 10’s commentary. However, given the indecisive-looking candlestick chart, the consolidation of the past two weeks may be hanging on by its teeth.


CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index came back with a rush in Week 11 to close at a promising 520. Over the past few weeks, we’ve commented on possible mid-200s support, mid-500s “attraction” and a possible recovery flagged by a divergent RSI. Week 11 saw a bounce back from a mid-200s open to a mid-500s close – too easy, you say? Possibly, since the Cape Index had little room to manouevre anyway; however the move appeared to confirm all our wayward ideas in one fell swoop.

The RSI flirted with bottoming territory once more, reaching 31.75. The MACD stayed almost level and hinted at an upcoming bullish signal-line crossing.
So what’s next for the Capes? Even with the volatile propensities of the index, let’s make a quick nod towards fundamentals and acknowledge the gathering storm clouds in Brazil after the tragic tailings dam collapse and the resulting microscope on similar installations.

Also casting shadows was the Chinese customs wrinkle with Australian coal shipments, all no doubt playing a part in the Cape index dive. Of course, being chart-watchers we’ll ignore all those distractions. Our estimates haven’t ruled out another bounce off the bottom as yet, however some casting of the chicken-bones gives us an upside resistance target somewhere in the 1200-1500 range.

Clean Tankers pull up; Dirty Tankers pause. Baltic Tanker Indices – Week 11 commentary

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

In Week 11 the Clean Tanker Index pulled up from our mid-500s support estimate from Week 3, fixing at 603.

The RSI trailed down closer to bottoming values at 31.93 and the MACD diverged from its downtrend to angle more towards its signal line, acknowledging the Week 11 upturn.

The index may be on track to take a run at our previous 675-700 upside resistance ideas but it’s early days yet as we watch Week 12 for further indications.


DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 11 the Dirty Tanker Index slowed its downward momentum, fixing at 737 on a tight 5-point range for the week and taking a pause in the midst of our mid-700s support thoughts.

The RSI at 22.07 stayed in its bottoming zone, while nothing dissuaded the MACD from wavering off its bearish downtrend.

The general index weakness has us still watching our 675-700 zone as secondary support, but the slow-down in downward momentum may be an encouraging recovery sign. For upside resistance in the case of a turnaround, we’re still watching our previous target in the 900-925 area.