Capes hitting 2016 levels – Baltic Dry Indices: Week 10 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

A small gap up at the start of Week 10 marked a steady climb for the Handysize Index, with the Friday fix at 421. Showing a little less energy than the previous week, the Handies are within reach of our resistance thoughts in the upper 400s.


Climbing to 27.52 the RSI was still at a relatively low, bottom-ish value. The MACD kept on its steady progress towards the signal line and possible bullishness.

The slight slacking in momentum may cause some difficulty in reaching our resistance ideas in the upper 400s to lower 500s, but no real indications are seen as yet.


SUPRAMAX

Another up-move to 790 for the Supramax Index in Week 10 was tempered by a relatively small range. Compared to the recent come-back 23 points doesn’t seem like much, but the index is now into our 775-875 upside resistance ideas.

Whether there is strength to push through this zone remains to be seen as the RSI slowly entered neutral territory at 41.72. The MACD, still negative, drew very close to but didn’t quite reach the signal line and possible bullish sentiment.

With the shrinkage of the weekly range, we’re watching for any further progress to the upper end of our resistance thoughts in that 775-875 area.


PANAMAX

For Week 10 the Panamax Index finished at 894 and gave us an interesting candlestick chart . With the Friday fix so close to the week’s open, we have an-almost Gravestone Doji or a weak Shooting Star.

Both these poetically-named symbols hint at a bearish turn. Let’s not forget that the Baltic indices are panel-set not traded, so is this actually a signal of doom? The RSI, just making it out of bottoming territory, reached 32.20 as it flattened out and the lagging MACD still reached up (perhaps vainly) to the signal line.

The index has reached well into our lower band of resistance around 900, and perhaps this zone is exerting influence on the upward momentum. Our ideas of the index reaching our next resistance band around 975-1000 may weaken if the Panamaxes don’t follow through on the Week 9 surge.


CAPESIZE

More gloom plagued the Capesize Index in Week 10 as the index stair-stepped down once more to fix at a basement level of 235. Halting just below our mid-200s support ideas, the index isn’t far from the floor to say the least.

Any turnaround ideas hinted at by the RSI divergence of the past few weeks was wiped out as the indicator fell to 33.93, with the lagging MACD following along.

For the Capes, similar lows were seen in early 2016 when a heavily depressed index stayed that way for over two months. Levels below 200 were reached, and in 2019 may repeat themselves. Any upward pressure may not appear for some time, with our initial resistance targets in the 1000 region. Our initial upside resistance thoughts are in the 500s area, but the volatility usually seen in the Capes could well wipe that out in a week or less.


Clean Tankers consolidating? Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 10 commentary.

by Dave Walker


CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 10 the Clean Tanker index appeared to consolidate a little, fixing at 575 and staying just within the previous week’s range.

With the index hovering just above our mid-500s support ideas from back in Week 3, the RSI trailed off somewhat but stayed in its neutral zone at 43.22. The MACD stayed firmly bearish but is lagging a good deal now.

The slowing downtrend may run out of steam altogether if our mid-500s support gains strength. An index recovery could see the 675-700 zone as possible resistance.


DIRTY TANKERS

Gapping down in Week 10 and falling to a 742 fix, the Dirty Tanker index entered our low-700s possible support zone.

The negatively-valued MACD continued its dive and the RSI at 22.44 was firmly into the bottoming zone. Should support firm up at these RSI levels, we may see a weakening of the downtrend, but precious few signs are visible at the moment.

Further steps downward would have us watching the 675-700 zone for support, (visible on the chart during the first half of 2018) with some hope that the mid-to-lower 700s will hold some sway.


Panamax flash in the pan? Baltic Dry Indices: Week 6 commentary.

HANDYSIZE

While dropping to a teeth-grinding 290 in Week 6, the Handysize Index actually eased in its recent plunge. After gapping down on the week’s open the overall performance could be called….um…less abysmal – a mere 11 points down.

What optimism might be gleaned at this point? The RSI firmly at zero and lagging MACD at heavily negative values might suggest a rest is coming, but the next month appears rough.

A recovery to our Week 4 target in the low 400s may be possible but some recovery in cargo fundamentals is needed.

Yes, fundamentals; there – we said it.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 6 the Supramax Index gapped down at a 438 open, but declining rather than plunging to a 415 close; a somewhat less than horrendous week.

The RSI stayed reasonably flat at 4.30 as the heavily negative MACD lagged behind a possible approaching pause, both indicators well into bottoming territory.

With successive targets being blown through in the Supras’ dive, the possibility of these low 400s levels offering any consolidation seems weak. However, this is the first sign of index easing in weeks.

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PANAMAX

Alone amongst the dry bulk indices, the Panamax Index gained in Week 6 to a 574 fix from a 552 open.

If this is some belated support from our old target in the low 700s, it’s a dim flash in the pan. The RSI rose a little to 9.35 with the move and the heavily negative MACD nudged at the -200s, both indicators into their nether regions.

Support may be possible in the upper 300s, perhaps into the low 400s area, but let’s not build too quickly on this small (and lonely) bright spot in the dry-bulk gloom.

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CAPESIZE

With a 792 Friday fix for Week 6, the Capesize Index pushed some way through our 1000-1050 downside target with a gap-down open. The index is now just below the 824 low point of 2018. With a less profound plunge than the other indices so far, the late-to-the-funeral Capes showed some remarkable restraint.

The RSI at 31.58 is coming within sight of bottoming territory, and the MACD of course continued down unabated after its bearish crossing of the signal line.

Perhaps our thoughts of some support in the 500s will come to pass, although we’re still watching into the 300s given the physical circumstances out there. We’ve already used the words “remarkable restraint” in a Cape index context: we shouldn’t jinx things any further.

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Tankers fading – Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 6 commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

Closing Week 6 at 624, the Clean Tanker index continued to lose strength. After a gap-down open below our previous 650-675 support some bearish momentum seems to be building, giving our previous suspicions some weight.

The RSI at 53.90 maintained the only hope of some continued strength, while the MACD stayed bearish after recently crossing the signal line.

The 650-675 zone may now become an upside resistance area should the present weakness continue. For downside targets, we’re watching the low 500s area for some support but hold out some hope for the 650-675 area to still exert some influence.

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DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 6 the Dirty Tanker index opened with a heavy gap down and fixed down at 795. Sharp-eyed chart watchers will note we’re now knocking at the door of 2018 index levels.

The RSI at 24.78 faded into bottoming territory while the MACD continued its uninterrupted fall, lagging but still positively valued.

There may be some room to fall yet, although we’re still holding out for some kind of pause or even consolidation around our low 700s target.

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Continuing carnage – Baltic Dry Indices: Week 5 commentary.

A HAPPY & PROSPEROUS

LUNAR NEW YEAR!

(Even if it seems hollow in the face of these dry bulk numbers….)

HANDYSIZE

For Week 5 the Handysize index carnage continued, once again gapping down at the open and even accelerating the plunge to a 311 fix, as can be seen on the candlestick chart. With most of the indices in a race to the bottom ahead of the Lunar New Year, all bets appear to be off.

No influence from our previous downside target in the low 400s was seen. Any projections for future targets were reached and surpassed within the weekly period. The RSI was not only in single digits, it reached a single digit at barely above a value of 1.

The heavily negative and lagging MACD also plunged, with
indicators giving no clear idea of an upcoming resting zone for possibly the next week or so.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax index also continued its swan dive in Week 5 and perhaps stating the obvious, our pessimism about any support developing was confirmed. Closing at a 450 fix with no lower target in sight as yet, the upcoming Lunar Year could well extend the gloominess.

With the RSI at 4.20 and the lagging MACD plunging well into negative values, an overall wait-and-see attitude pervades the atmosphere. The only saving grace may be the relative leveling-off of the RSI indicator,which may hint at an as-yet-unseen consolidation area.

The indices are in the basement along with their indicators, and those nasty industry fundamentals will have to run their course.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax index followed the Handies and Supras in Week 5, accelerating its plunge to a 560 Friday fix. As expected, any influence from the low 700s area never materialized.

Like the Supramax index the Panamax RSI also showed some consistency, leveling out somewhat at 7.19. This small divergence in the RSI may hint at some kind of upcoming hesitation in the headlong dive. The lagging MACD followed the index as it plunged further into negative bottoming (bottomless?) values.

We were tempted to suggest a downside target (“area of
influence” perhaps?) in the low 500s zone, but the Panamaxes are dangerously close to that value now.
An understatement maybe, but confidence is not high.

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CAPESIZE

In Week 5, the Capesize index was seemingly infected by the malaise in its sister indices. Buckling at the knees and dropping to our 1000-1050 downside target area, the index closed at 1014. Whether the 1000-1050 area gives any support remains to be seen in the face of the overall dry bulk shipping collapse.

Having broken out of the past month’s doldrums, the Capes showed an RSI dropping slightly below neutral at 37.29 and a MACD that completed its crossing of the signal line to the bearish side.

To acknowledge the fundamentals, the re-shuffling in world trade, Chinese iron ore specifications and also the tragic Brazilian tailings-dam disaster are no doubt having an effect. With the present grim situation a downside target in the mid-300s area isn’t out of the running, with our hope for a rest in the 500s somewhere.

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Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 5 commentary.

A HAPPY & PROSPEROUS

LUNAR NEW YEAR!

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 5 the Clean Tanker index pushed down to fix at 649, barely through our 650-675 support thoughts.

Staying in its sideways pattern, the index showed a still-solid RSI of 54.63 while the MACD continued its bearishness after crossing the signal line previously.

For now the index is only just outside its recent range, so we’ll watch for the 650-675 zone to show any weakness in previous support.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 5 the Dirty Tanker index slipped off Week 4’s rest and dropped to a 843 fix by Friday.

With our hopes fading for any pull from the 900-925 region, the RSI dribbled below neutrality to 38.01 and the lagging MACD continued its bearish plunge unabated.

Some downside support may be developing around the low 700s area but it’s early days yet, and the index has yet to show any decent recovery from the January dive.

Doom and/or gloom. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 4 commentary.

HANDYSIZE

Week 4 saw more gloominess for the Handysize Index, with yet another gap-down open. The headlong charge ran down
to a horrendous fix of 395, as the index poked a little way through our hopes of some low-400s consolidation.

The single-digit RSI at 6.04 and negatively-valued MACD reached deep into their respective basements however, giving a small ray of hope that some support may materialize.

For feelings of deja-vu refer to our Week 8 – 2018 commentary, although that particular gloomy spell was cured by the post-Golden Week pickup. In this case, we haven’t even reached the Chinese New Year yet. Let’s see if the low 400s levels exert any support influence and shed some light in the gloom.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index looked as equally gloomy as its Handy counterpart in Week 4, also gapping down and fixing abysmally.

The 576 close offered little in the way of developing support, even as the RSI bottomed at 4.76 hand-in-hand with a deeply negative MACD. Nothing in the way of consolidation was seen, as possible support hints in the 700 area were punched through.

As with Week 3 and the low 700s, our possible support thoughts have again been reached as the index taps at the 550 level. Are the indices heading for a repeat of the 2016 carnage? We’re not there yet, but anything in the way of developing support appears bleak for the moment.

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PANAMAX

For Week 4 in the Panamax Index, we saw gloomy repetition of the Supra and Handy collapse as the index fell to a
748 fix on yet another gap-down open.

The RSI value fell into single digits at 8.49, well into bottoming territory. The MACD hit heavily negative values as the index plunged, both indicators pointing to their low points. Of course the index took no notice of such paltry technicalities, giving our 900-925 support ideas short shrift.

By the end of Week 4 the index had already closed on our next downside target in the lower 700s, which gave little hope of any index rests developing. For now, any influence from the 700 zone may be negligible.

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CAPESIZE

In Week 4 the Capesize Index once again stayed just below our low 2000s upside resistance. Showing a dark candlestick
for the week, the index mostly eclipsed Week 3’s range to fix at 1730.

This gave an RSI straying into neutral territory at 44.68 and an MACD that wavered on its signal line, barely slipping over to the bearish side.

Should volatility in the Capes be returning, we’re watching this down-slip for a reach towards 1000-1050, with the mid-1400s as a possible moderating influence. For any upward motion, we’re watching for the low 2000s to re-assert resistance.

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Sub-capesize plunge continues – Baltic Dry Indices: Week 3 2019 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

In Week 3 the Handysize index again plunged on a gap-down 511 open, fixing at a dismal 451 for the week. Our previous fears for our 500-525 support ideas showed their teeth.

The index dive placed the RSI well into bottoming values at 14.50 and a MACD into negative values, which suggest things have gone far enough.

Of course, we shouldn’t forget old J.M. Keynes who might have said, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” The range of the plunge has us watching the low 400s for possible consolidation.

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SUPRAMAX

Week 3 continued in horrendous fashion for the Supramax index, with another gap-down open and a fix way down at 701. Starting the week well into our 800-850 area of possible influence, the carnage continued without a rest.

The RSI dropped to even smaller single digits at 6.94, far into the basement. The MACD followed on, its bearishness now well into negative value territory. Both indicators suggest some index strength is long overdue, but here we are.

Our possible support ideas should the 800-850 zone be demolished are right around the low 700s, right where the index is now. This next week may tell if consolidation, if any, is in the cards.

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PANAMAX

In Week 3 our thoughts of a braking effect on the Panamax Index’s downhill run failed to materialize.

With an gap-down open at 1118, the week ended gloomily at 1018. The RSI ran well into bottoming territory at 14.87, and the MACD followed blindly into heavily negative values.

Any braking action suggested by these indicators (see Week 2) hasn’t shown its face as yet. Our next target for any consolidation in the face of such negative index action is the low 900-925 area.

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CAPESIZE

Relative calmness in the Capesize index continued for Week 3, as a foray to a 1748 low for the week turned into a 2037 Friday fix.

As the index cruised along in our low-2000s upside
resistance
region, the RSI maintained itself some way above neutral at 49.44. A mildly bullish MACD poked its nose just above its signal line, lending some support to the index even as it tested the downside.

The recent action has us still watching the 1000-1050 zone for down-swings, with some possible easing in the mid-1500s. Should some strength develop we’ll watch for a significant break above 2000-2300. Naturally all this calm sailing causes us deep Capesize uneasiness, and seeing such tight number ranges in this index doesn’t help.

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Plunge upon plunge…except for the Capes: Baltic Dry Bulk Indices – Week 2 2019

Well, a week or two certainly makes a difference, doesn’t it? Our last commentary was for Week 50, 2018 and we posted dry bulk and tanker charts through the holiday period, watching as the black marks began to pile up. Our friend Jerome Sorrel summed it up well on the DryBulkPelagos blog – “the sound of the deflating shipping market.
Let’s poke around and see what we can sort out from all this shipping nonsense…

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HANDYSIZE

For Week 2/2019 the Handysize Index gapped down in even heavier fashion than previous weeks, plunging to
a 524 fix on a near-40-point drop.
In our Week 50/2018 commentary we discussed that the Handies might be at a crossroads, with some pessimism that a drop to the 500-525 zone might be in the works.

The lagging, bearish MACD entered negative-value territory as the RSI approached bottoming values at 23.35.

With these values and the index hard up against our 500-525 support ideas, some hope of arresting the plunge may be there. However, it will be hard to visualize in the face of such a headlong dive in the index.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 2/2019 the Supramax Index went off the edge hand-in-hand with the Handies. The index gapped down from Week 1’s 946 to a 933 open for Week 2. A further 91-point drop on the week brought the Supras down to an 842 fix.

In our previous comments we noted some possible attraction in the 960-975 area, but that any weakness might result in a downward run to 800-850 territory. Week 2’s action puts the index squarely in this lower zone with a well-bottomed RSI at 9.82.

Strengthened negative values were seen for the heavily-lagging, bearish MACD. While these indicators might suggest it may be time for a rest, the 800-850 zone will require monitoring for any further weakness in this heavy down-move.

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PANAMAX

Week 2 / 2019’s Panamax Index took a page from the Supras and Handies, plunging over 160 points on a gap-down open to fix at 1137. We had previously opined that there might be some upside resistance around 1575-1600, however the index didn’t make any forays above 1500 before taking a dive.

Going back to Week 43/2018, as the index declined the Panamaxes gained only fitful support for the remainder of 2018. This push down through our hoped-for support in the low 1400s has put the RSI at a bottom-region value of 19.74.

Gaining some bearish strength with the plunge, the MACD pushed harder into negative values. This may indicate some braking action on the Panamaxes’ downhill run, but nothing is visible in actual index action as yet.

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CAPESIZE

Being the odd man out in dry bulk for Week 2 / 2019, the Capesize Index showed some very sedate action. Closing at a 1966 fix, it gave some credence to our Week 50 / 2018 ideas, i.e. that there wasn’t the strength to stay above our low-2000s resistance zone.

The Week 2 candlestick shows a hint of index weakness, with the noticeable upper wick. The RSI maintained some above-neutral strength at 49.57, while the MACD rose slightly to park itself on top of the signal line, perhaps hinting at a little bullish tendency.

Bumping along under that low-2000s resistance zone,
the Capes have enjoyed a little spell in limbo over the holiday period. Our low-side support thoughts are around the 1050-1000 zone, as we suspiciously eye this rare calm in the Capes.

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