Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 8 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

Still within our support zone of 525 – 550, the Handysize Index rose steadily through Week 8 to close at 534.

Having heaved itself away from our bearish area of concern at the 500 mark, the handies offered some hope of recovery into a comfort zone between our 525 -550 support ideas and possible upside resistance around 600 – 625.

We had some previous cause for optimism, given the low RSI, which rose to 19.44 (still in “bottom” territory) and a MACD that strayed below zero for Week 8. In this post-Lunar New Year week, let’s hope the positive numbers in the other indices prove infectious for the Handy Index.

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SUPRAMAX

For Week 8, the Supramax Index also rose steadily to a close at 892. Our worries of the index testing our 750 – 800 support ideas receded with the strong showing for the week.

Should the current strength hold, there may be some upside resistance at the 975 – 1000 level which could give some sideways travel for the Supras.

The RSI rose into neutral territory at 47.54, and the MACD showed a small lean towards bullish while in negative numbers, offering some possible momentum for the latest up-move.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax Index showed some strength in Week 8, rebounding over 200 points to a close at 1481. This action propped up an index that was showing some gradual weakening since the beginning of 2018. Well away from our possible support zone around 1250, the index pushed upwards through our upside resistance target in the 1350 – 1400 area.

The RSI at 52.08 is rising beyond neutral values, but isn’t near its upper zone yet, which for the Panamaxes seems to be in the 65 – 75 area.

The MACD turned away from its downward travel with Week 8’s move, so should this push against our resistance ideas continue, the index reaching 1650 – 1700 territory may be in the cards. For the moment though, we’ll see how this latest move pans out. Our 1350 – 1400 resistance ideas may re-assert themselves and regulate Week 8’s exuberance a little.

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CAPESIZE

Rising from a 1597 open for Week 8, the Capesize Index levelled off mid-week and closed at 1722. The overall range in the past few weeks’ “resting” mode has been roughly 400 points or so, continuing from our ideas in Week 3’s commentary. Cruising along midway between our 750 – 800 support zone and our upside 2500 – 2700 resistance area, the index remained in this odd (for the Capes, anyway) sideways channel.

The MACD was well into negative numbers, but with a RSI sailing along just below neutral, there’s no real sense of pressure in either an up or down direction.

However, eyeing the candlestick chart and negative MACD
together suggests a tightening of the range over the past couple of weeks that may hint at an upcoming move;
possibly bullish but no confirmation yet, so we won’t pontificate with possibly premature prognostications.
(Maybe we should have worked that line into the Panamax section…)

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Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 7 technical commentary

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 7, the Clean Tanker Index continued to test our upper resistance ideas around 625 – 630. Finishing the week
at 638, any further push upwards through this zone could encounter resistance in the 740 – 750 area.

Over the past year the index has been reluctant to test downside resistance much past the 500 level; should this 625 – 630 resistance prove strong enough, we may see the index finding a comfort zone between the two bands.

The RSI at 60.09 may suggest some strength in the current
upward resistance zone. Meanwhile the MACD, weakly bearish, continued being somewhat non-committal as it cruised along just below the signal line.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 7, the Dirty Tanker Index saw a small climb to counter the recent run downwards. Just above our support ideas at 625 – 630, the index closed the week at 649, with a low for the week at 637.

The RSI came up a little on Week 6 at 19.5, still in bottom territory, with a bearish but lagging MACD well into negative numbers. So what might all that mean?

There may be enough overall downside resistance to counteract the recent downturn, but Week 7’s ray of sunshine was relatively small. If we actually see a turnaround, an upside resistance target may be somewhere in the 775 – 800 zone.

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Until next time, a Happy Lunar New Year to all of you from Superior Maritime. 恭喜發財

Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 6 technical commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

Taking an upward path for Week 6, the Clean Tanker Index refuted our pessimism and almost canceled out Week 5’s downward turn. “Dark Cloud Cover” indeed….. A relatively slow mid-week period was complemented by a 11-point boost on Monday and a 13-point boost on Friday, seeing a close at 632.

This brought the index up to test a possible mild resistance area at 625 – 630. The MACD, just barely into bearish territory, showed a slight bias towards bullishness with Week 6’s move.

The RSI moved into the low 60s with the upward move, entering an area that has given us downturns before. This could be in keeping with the upper end of the 500 – 750 range we’ve been seeing for the past while.

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DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 6, the Dirty Tanker Index closed at 642, continuing its downward trajectory.

So far, the index is still within our ideas for possible support in the 625 area. The MACD once again is well below zero in its lagging way, but not near historical turnaround levels yet.

Our RSI is now down at 14.4 , well into possible bottom territory, but the dirty index tends to go to extremes with
this indicator. With a “normal” range from 20 to 80, this index has seen upper values in the 90s and lower values in the teens. Patience may be a virtue in this neck of the woods.

What of Technical Analysis?


Warning: The occasional nautical term and/or possible Star Trek reference may crop up in the following.

What of Technical Analysis?

Good question. What do we make of these seemingly incomprehensible lines, doodles, patterns, and downright baffling comments we see, regarding what might happen next? Where is this futures contract going? What possible motive can there be for thinking this or that stock might take a jump or a dive? You can get an idea of the goings-on just by observing patterns? Really?

Maybe. Sometimes. Possibly.

For myself, I use technical analysis because it’s my comfort zone. What comfort zone is that? Maybe it’s from my background, which has been taking care of large mechanical objects; listening to, watching and identifying the knocks, rumbles and visual clues that might indicate good or bad things in the offing. Ship engines, mining machinery, that annoying rattle in the back of my fridge. Standard analysis language doesn’t always make me sit up and say, “Hey, that’s right on the money, I’m buying in!” Me? I don’t dismiss fundamentals or other analysis out-of-hand at all; I just have to get the charts out and begin watching and identifying.

When I post a diagram, more often than not, you will see a standard un-adorned candlestick chart. For the purposes of blog posting, I use these as illustrations. You are probably familiar with them; candlestick charts are wonderful things, originating in Japanese exchanges around the 18th or 19th centuries and popularized in the West about twenty-five years ago by Steve Nison. Until I got all computerized n’stuff, I drew candlesticks by hand on graph paper. Stop rolling your eyes at me.

Rather than being a complete candlestick nerd however, I use them as a foundation (as many others do) for a small methodology that incorporates a few other technical indicators. I also add some pixie-dust and chicken-bone rattling of my own, of course.

All that said, the myriad technical indicators out there can’t be blindly followed. “What?”you say,”but…..” No buts. Captain, we are messing with forces we cannot possibly comprehend. We go for our own interpretation of what we see and hear. If you clog your screen with a host of technical indicators, all becomes gibberish in short order. You have to study them and see what works for you; see what speaks to you.

This can involve a lot of trial and error until you start noticing things. What things, you ask? Things; signs that make sense to your train of thought, testing them and all the while keeping a weather eye on what the fundamentals are. ( and what those smart analysts are saying.) In time, as a trader friend of mine once said, you will become a master of time and space……….. (I could have used a David Carradine/Kung Fu reference there, but I didn’t)