Capes, Panamaxes soar – Handies & Supras tag along. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 27 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

In Week 27 the Handysize index rose off the flat previous week to fix at 448. With the Handies seeming so reluctant, the overall boost across the Baltic complex dragged the index along with it. A slight slackness early on was cancelled out by a steady climb through the rest of the week.

Our RSI wandered down to just above neutral at 44.59 as the MACD, steadily bullish, continued creeping towards positive values.

Knocking on the door of our 450 – 475 resistance ideas from Week 21, we wait to see if the reluctance in the Handies becomes more pronounced, or if the index steps up and moves on to greater heights.


SUPRAMAX

Another gap up at open and surge to an 820 fix marked the Supramax index for Week 27. Well within our 775 – 875 resistance band now, the index rode the general dry bulk surge.

Our RSI continued to show decent strength, building to 50.89 while the MACD rose in bullish fashion, both indicators hinting at some continued index strength remaining.

With some of our other indicators showing peakish signs, we’re watching the Supras for another consolidation around our 775 – 875 resistance thoughts. With the general optimistic sentiment in dry bulk these days, a stepping-stone effect might be seen in this index.


PANAMAX

An impressive surge was seen in the Week 27 Panamax index, with a near-350 point jump to fix at 1665. Continuing the bounce off our Week 17 975 – 1000 support thoughts, the Panamaxes cut solidly through our 1350 – 1400 resistance ideas with barely a pause and put most technical indicators in our arsenal to shame.

Our RSI continued to curve back into peakish Panamax territory, while the MACD latched onto the up-move and was boosted well into positive values.

With the massive rise in dry bulk positive sentiment, Panamax owners may be enjoying a little sunlight. The latest move could turn our 1350 – 1400 resistance target into support as the index moves on. We have a tentative upside target around 1700 – 1750 which the index may have reached already, if we only dare look.


CAPESIZE

A heavy upward surge brought the Capesize index to a 3346 fix for Week 27, continuing its surge after giving a passing nod to our 1800 – 2000 resistance target from Week 20. For the moment, all the fundamental factors at play in iron ore and coal movement have put paid to we simple followers of scrawled lines on a chart.

Still at peakish values, our RSI hit 98.13 with a MACD that sailed happily along with the index, well clear of its signal line.

A target for the Capes? Well may you ask. At this level of volatility, the Capes are usually well ahead of any mere technical indicator. As we vainly hang on to our charts, our 1800 – 2000 zone may become support for this latest move with the possibility that the index may consolidate around present levels.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk #ETF: Week 27 commentary.


For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF: Week 20 commentary.

by Dave Walker

$BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


Week 20 saw $BDRY retreat slightly, in line with our $12 – $14 resistance ideas, to close at $11.84, down from a $12.41 open.

Our RSI took an interesting streak upwards to 55.04 while the MACD approached positive values, although weakening a little from the Week 19 retreat. The continued charge of the RSI could suggest some building strength, but the overall feel hints at possible consolidation as momentum fades.

It remains to be seen if $BDRY is taking a rest or will move on to greater things. A quick glance at the weekly Baltic Capesize Index below (50% BDRY weighting) shows a slight loss of momentum, although within a generally positive Week 20.

Downside support may still be in the $9.00 range for $BDRY, with unconfirmed support possibly building around current levels. Volatility in dry bulk shipping indices being a fact of life (there, we’ve given a nod to
those nasty fundamentals again), we can always cast a hopeful eye at the iron ore price and China’s lowered port stockpiles.


Week 20 Baltic Capesize Shipping Index:


Week 20 Baltic Panamax Shipping Index:


*Disclaimer: Superior Maritime does not hold any stock in $BDRY.

Capes & Supras surge. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 17 commentary.

by Dave Walker


HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index decline shrank even further in the 4-day Week 17, showing a very tight 3-point range to fix at 389, almost level with the previous week’s fix. What optimism may be drawn from this is hard to say.

The RSI climbed into divergence, forging up through neutrality and maybe offering further optimism. As with previous weeks the MACD has cruised along almost level, staying just above the signal line since crossing it in Weeks 12-13.

Even with some slight technical optimism, there seems to be little in the way of upward-moving incentive so far. As we watch our lower 300s downside mark, the RSI divergence and slowed downtrend may yet brighten the day for the Handies.


SUPRAMAX

Gapping up almost 20 points at the Week 17 open, the Supramax Index surged almost 30 points to its 780 Friday fix. This puts the index just over the threshold of the 775 – 875 resistance ideas that have been on our radar since Week 7.

The RSI at 54.44 reinforced the index strength while the MACD pulled away from its lean towards the signal line and bullishly followed the rest of the pack.

After casting our chicken bones and testing the wind, the strength of this Supra surge could develop some support around the low 700s, up from our previous 550 – 600 thoughts from Week 15. Let’s see what strength our 775 – 875 resistance ideas may have after showing some muscle back in Week 13.


PANAMAX

A gap up and further strength marked the Panamax Index for Week 17. Fixing at 1186 after a 15-point climb, the progress through the week was steady. The tighter range may indicate some loss of index momentum, but recent strength has so far been on the Panamaxes’ side.

The RSI gained to a strong 57.07 to boost the index as the lagging MACD continued with little wavering to be seen. Back in Week 8 we made noises about possible resistances around the 900 / 975 – 1000 regions, both visible during the recent index climb. Registering as consolidating areas along the way, these points gave the stair-step effect we’ve seen in the Panamaxes before.

The overall strength in the Panamaxes may still have steam, and could see support building in the 975 -1000 zone. Our next resistance target is in the 1350 – 1400 region, although some attraction may still exist around that 975 – 1000 area.


CAPESIZE

For Week 17 the Capesize Index took a more Cape-like surge, with a sizable gap up and fix at 783 after climbing over 200 points. We’re watching with great interest as the index approaches our Week 14 upside resistance target in the 1000 – 1200 range.

The RSI surged with the index, climbing out of bottoming values to reach 29.71 and hopefully further strength. The heavily negative MACD barely crossed the signal line into bullish hopefulness.

While there may be no champagne corks popping yet, Week 17 was a ray of hope amidst the general Capesize uncertainty. Should the index strength continue, our 1000 – 1200 zone resistance thoughts may just be a chart footnote…..hopefully.


Positive motion – except for the Capes. Baltic Dry Indices – Week 12 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Fore Week 12 the Handysize Index climbed once more on a small range to fix at 455 as it closed on our Week 8 resistance ideas in the top 400s to 500 zone.

The RSI, still gently rising, reached a relatively low 33.0 as the MACD drew very close to the signal line and possible bullishness should the line be crossed.

As the weekly range shrinks, we’re watching for signs of further strength that may push the index through the upper 400s, but overall the impression is of the index approaching resistance or a consolidation point.


SUPRAMAX

After Week 11’s rest, the Supramax Index took a hop upwards in Week 12 to fix at 826, still within our 775-875 upside resistance thoughts from Week 7.

Alongside the RSI that rose but stayed relatively neutral at 43.68, the MACD crossed solidly to the bullish side of the signal line as the index climbed.

With the index still within our 775-875 resistance range, once again it remains to be seen how much momentum remains with the Supramaxes, and if they have enough left to push any higher.


PANAMAX

In Week 12 the Panamax Index snapped out of its dithering mood and rose to a 1027 fix, putting our more pessimistic thoughts to rest for the moment.

The RSI climbed out of bottoming territory to 34.39 and the MACD parked squarely on its signal line, ready to cross the border into bullish country.

The Panamaxes have pushed through our lower 900s resistance ideas from Week 8 and are well into our secondary 975-1000 zone. These levels may become a resistance challenge, but so far the momentum is on the Panamaxes’ side.


CAPESIZE

For Week 12 the Capesize Index wiped out Week 11’s gains to close at 251, giving an impression over the past three weeks of the proverbial dead cat bounce. A candlestick hound might see a bullish Stick Sandwich, which might be the easy way out given the vicinity of the index to rock-bottom.

The RSI at 19.69 showed bottoming values, but the Capes’ RSI has been in single digits before. The MACD anaemically faded away from the signal line as the index dropped.

Still seemingly held up by our Week 9 support target in the mid-200s, the wait is on to see if a bullish streak is in the cards or if the Capes are doomed to a spell in the basement. With uncertainty that included stormy weather at Australian iron ore ports, the Capes can’t seem to catch a break. All the same we’re watching our 1200-1500 upside target should the sun decide to shine.

Clean Tankers consolidating? Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 10 commentary.

by Dave Walker


CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 10 the Clean Tanker index appeared to consolidate a little, fixing at 575 and staying just within the previous week’s range.

With the index hovering just above our mid-500s support ideas from back in Week 3, the RSI trailed off somewhat but stayed in its neutral zone at 43.22. The MACD stayed firmly bearish but is lagging a good deal now.

The slowing downtrend may run out of steam altogether if our mid-500s support gains strength. An index recovery could see the 675-700 zone as possible resistance.


DIRTY TANKERS

Gapping down in Week 10 and falling to a 742 fix, the Dirty Tanker index entered our low-700s possible support zone.

The negatively-valued MACD continued its dive and the RSI at 22.44 was firmly into the bottoming zone. Should support firm up at these RSI levels, we may see a weakening of the downtrend, but precious few signs are visible at the moment.

Further steps downward would have us watching the 675-700 zone for support, (visible on the chart during the first half of 2018) with some hope that the mid-to-lower 700s will hold some sway.