Summer Break

For the next while, Superior Maritime’s internet spot (or blemish?) will be taking a summer break.

As we head off to the non-internet Canadian wilderness, we wish you a safe and happy summer. We’ll be catching up with you and dry bulk shipping again soon. Stay tuned to superiormar.com and @SuperiorMar on Twitter – we’ll be in touch.

Until then, keep your nose above water…

Dry bulk numbers climb….with warning signs? Baltic Dry Indices: Week 29 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Taking another surge for Week 29, the Handysize Index rose 20 points to a 492 fix. Taking a cue from the other dry bulk indices, the Handies pushed through our 450 – 475 resistance ideas from Week 21.

Reaching hard into peakish territory (Yes, we’re repeating ourselves…), our RSI touched 93.22. The MACD closed on its zero point, both indicators giving some weight to our thoughts of returning index stamina.

Whether there’s been a little index over-reach and our 450 – 475 zone turns into support is up for discussion, but the Handies spent the week climbing without a pause. We could look back at Week 26’s chart and note a slight nod to consolidation. Have the Handies found their footing and a stepping-stone? Stay tuned.


SUPRAMAX

Week 29 gave the Supramax index the largest surge since early 2019. With a near-100 point run to its 982 fix, the index never paused around our old 775 – 875 resistance for a rest.

At the risk of repeating ourselves (too late you say?…), our RSI tapped 79.78 in its excursion through peak values, and the MACD journeyed further into the positive to reach 6.66. (Don’t read anything into that number…) An overall topping view is creeping into our thoughts, but positive dry bulk sentiment could carry the day.

With all the peakish signs despite the sentiment, even grumpy old observers like us have a tentative 1100 target for the index. It’s possible our long-standing 775 – 875 resistance band may become support as the Supras continue climbing.


PANAMAX

For Week 29 the Panamax index broke highs not seen since late 2013 and pushed into values not seen in almost 10 years. The 2170 fix came after a gap up at the open and steady rise through the week to close on our 2300 target.

Is our RSI showing peaky signs? Many of our comments repeat those thoughts, but there it is at 84.83 with the lagging MACD in full runaway bull mode.

After the previous pause and slight nod to our Week 27 1700 – 1750 target, there may be support building in that same zone. Our tentative upside resistance target in the 2300 region could see some testing..


CAPESIZE

A gap up and fix at 4379 marked Week 29 for the Capesize index, with a near-1800 point surge early in the week being tempered by a slower rise to the fix.

Our RSI pushed at maximum value in its peakish journey, seeing 98.48. The MACD steepened its rise away from the signal line as the index continued to cruise along at topping values for several of our indicators.

The Capes bounded up to our 3800 – 4000 target right off the bat in Week 29, so we won’t claim any foresight there. The index’s slow rise thereafter may be telling, however. With our old 1800 – 2000 target ideas as possible support, our binoculars are focused for any building weakness. The Capes, of course, may pay little heed to such misgivings.


Behold the flying index: Baltic Dry Indices: Week 28 commentary. #drybulk #shipping #maritime #bdi

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Finally showing less reluctance, the Handysize index surged with its cousins in Week 28, gapping up and rising to a 472 close. The index is now within our Week 21 450 – 475 resistance thoughts.

Our RSI popped up strongly to peaking levels at 81.08 as the MACD closed on its zero point, angling away from the signal line.

Whether our peakish signals hold sway or not remains to be seen in the face of the dry bulk surge. Will the Handies follow suit and use the 450 – 475 band as a stepping stone or will they consolidate? Curious eyes are watching.


SUPRAMAX

Another gap-up and 50-point surge marked Week 28 for the Supramax index, showing a wider range and fixing at 879. Our Week 7 775 – 875 resistance zone has now been covered by the Supras in this latest run at the barrier.

Our RSI flirted with peak values, rising to 67.89 as the MACD widened its gap from the signal line in its bullish climb.

With the Supras now at the upper end of our 775 – 875 resistance thoughts the peakish-looking signs are there, but as with the other indices the general dry bulk sentiment is positive for now. As before, we watch for possible consolidation around this area, or at least a little rest.


PANAMAX

Going from strength to strength, the Panamax index gapped up and hit 1945 after a 250-point surge. Our tentative upside target of 1700 – 1750 registered as a mere pause earlier in the week.

Our RSI stayed in peaking country at 79.87 with a MACD that took on a near-vertical plane, staying not far from the signal line.

The rapid index movement makes possible targets hard to pin down as we plod through the charts, but a 2300 upside target may not be out of the picture for the Panamaxes. Our previous 1700 – 1750 target where the index paused briefly may become consolidation support should peakish signs take over.


CAPESIZE

A positive Week 28 for the Cape Index was marked by some slight weakness mid-week before rising to fix at 3541.

Our RSI pulled back very slightly to 98.17 (let’s face it, it didn’t have much room to grow) and the MACD stayed on its steeper divergence from the signal line.

With the Cape index now regaining similar heights to mid-2018, what’s next? We’re still watching our old 1800 – 2000 resistance zone (weak resistance at that) as possible support in a Capesize consolidation. A 3800 – 4000 target on is our horizon. The slight mid-Week 28 pause in the uptrend may be a tell, but we won’t grasp at that straw. The Capes will always humble their observers…


Fund climbs with dry bulk shipping surge. $BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF: Week 28 commentary.


For insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.



Fund climbs with dry bulk shipping surge. $BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF: Week 28 commentary.

by Dave Walker

Rand Logistics m/v Tecumseh loads grain at a Richardson International terminal in Thunder bay, Canada.

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


As we wind down to a summer hiatus for the Superior Maritime blog, Week 28 saw $BDRY reach 16.61 in its continued climb. With headlines bringing this ETF into the mainstream news, we watch with interest as exuberance takes over.

Our RSI leveled off to 96.99, still heavily peakish by indication accompanied by a MACD that steepened its bullish gradient. Given the overall surge in the shipping indices, (see index charts below) the markets may be thumbing their collective noses at mere chart-readers like us.

With the fund pushing well through our old $12 – $14 resistance band from Week 18, we’re keeping an eye on that area for support should consolidation kick in for $BDRY. With several of our indicators still pointing at peakishness, our next upside target is in the $18.00 zone. Whether it becomes a possible consolidation point or a new rung in the dry bulk ladder remains to be seen, as optimism spreads in the dry bulk market.


Baltic Supramax Index, Week 28 2019.


Baltic Panamax Index, Week 28 2019.


Baltic Capesize Index, Week 28 2019.


Behold the flying index: Baltic Dry Indices: Week 28 commentary. 


*For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY.

Capes, Panamaxes soar – Handies & Supras tag along. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 27 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

In Week 27 the Handysize index rose off the flat previous week to fix at 448. With the Handies seeming so reluctant, the overall boost across the Baltic complex dragged the index along with it. A slight slackness early on was cancelled out by a steady climb through the rest of the week.

Our RSI wandered down to just above neutral at 44.59 as the MACD, steadily bullish, continued creeping towards positive values.

Knocking on the door of our 450 – 475 resistance ideas from Week 21, we wait to see if the reluctance in the Handies becomes more pronounced, or if the index steps up and moves on to greater heights.


SUPRAMAX

Another gap up at open and surge to an 820 fix marked the Supramax index for Week 27. Well within our 775 – 875 resistance band now, the index rode the general dry bulk surge.

Our RSI continued to show decent strength, building to 50.89 while the MACD rose in bullish fashion, both indicators hinting at some continued index strength remaining.

With some of our other indicators showing peakish signs, we’re watching the Supras for another consolidation around our 775 – 875 resistance thoughts. With the general optimistic sentiment in dry bulk these days, a stepping-stone effect might be seen in this index.


PANAMAX

An impressive surge was seen in the Week 27 Panamax index, with a near-350 point jump to fix at 1665. Continuing the bounce off our Week 17 975 – 1000 support thoughts, the Panamaxes cut solidly through our 1350 – 1400 resistance ideas with barely a pause and put most technical indicators in our arsenal to shame.

Our RSI continued to curve back into peakish Panamax territory, while the MACD latched onto the up-move and was boosted well into positive values.

With the massive rise in dry bulk positive sentiment, Panamax owners may be enjoying a little sunlight. The latest move could turn our 1350 – 1400 resistance target into support as the index moves on. We have a tentative upside target around 1700 – 1750 which the index may have reached already, if we only dare look.


CAPESIZE

A heavy upward surge brought the Capesize index to a 3346 fix for Week 27, continuing its surge after giving a passing nod to our 1800 – 2000 resistance target from Week 20. For the moment, all the fundamental factors at play in iron ore and coal movement have put paid to we simple followers of scrawled lines on a chart.

Still at peakish values, our RSI hit 98.13 with a MACD that sailed happily along with the index, well clear of its signal line.

A target for the Capes? Well may you ask. At this level of volatility, the Capes are usually well ahead of any mere technical indicator. As we vainly hang on to our charts, our 1800 – 2000 zone may become support for this latest move with the possibility that the index may consolidate around present levels.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk #ETF: Week 27 commentary.


For further insight on financial freight futures, pay a visit to https://cotunchained.com/ for Commitment of Traders data on SupramaxPanamax and Capesize positions.


Panamaxes bounce off our support; Capes surge on. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 26 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Week 26 showed a flat Handysize Index, fixing at 442 on a non-existent range. Giving some credence to our Week 20 upside resistance ideas in the lower 400s, the index however paused closer to our Week 21 450 – 475 target zone after its solid gains.

Our RSI trickled down closer to neutral at 45.70, while the MACD took little notice of the pause to continue on in bullish fashion.

With the index midway between possible lower 400s support and our 450 – 475 target, it remains to be seen how the Handysize push-and-pull will work out. Improving fundamental sentiment in the dry bulk sector may be its saving grace.


SUPRAMAX

Another positive move marked Week 26 for the Supramax Index. With a fix at 787 on a decent 31-point move up, the Supras have re-entered our recurring 775 -875 resistance band which has proved a challenge to the index for most of 2019.

Our RSI kept just above the neutral zone at 44.80 as the MACD took a positive turn away from its signal-line, avoiding recent weakness.

It now remains to be seen what strength the index may have to push further into this 775 – 875 resistance. With some of our indicator spreads approaching peakishness, we’re watching the Supras with interest.


PANAMAX

A positive snap-back was seen in Week 26 for the Panamax Index. With a fix at 1286 after a 175-point run, the index took a solid bounce up just above our 975 – 1000 support ideas discussed back in Week 17.

Our RSI stayed in peakish territory with the up-move, while the MACD followed the index and backed away from its path towards the signal-line.

Do the Panamaxes now have enough momentum for another push at our Week 19 1350 – 1400 resistance zone? Possible, with the sudden overall optimism in dry bulk sentiment. Being a cautious bunch however, peakish signs remain for us.


CAPESIZE

Week 26 was another positive one for the Capesize Index. Pushing further away from our Week 20 1800 – 2000 resistance target, which in the Capes’ case was a mere stepping-stone on the chart, the index gapped up off the open and fixed at 2488.

Our RSI continued into peakish values, reaching 93.64. The MACD reached well into positive values with the index exuberance, happily tagging along in its bullishness.

While our indicators point towards rising peakishness, this of course is something the Capes have thumbed their noses at on a semi-regular basis. A tentative 2800 – 3000 target is in our sights for now, but having studiously avoided any Baltics’ news at time of publishing, the index may be there already. Such are the Capes – always poking fun at the pundits and often several steps ahead.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF – Week 26, 2019.

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com


Dirty Tankers meet our resistance; Clean Tankers spring upwards. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 26 commentary.

by Dave Walker.

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 26 the Clean Tanker Index popped up to a fix of 539, off a 550 Tuesday high. To acknowledge fundamentals, the PES Philadelphia refinery fire was widely seen as positively affecting product tanker rates. This news, and possibly the index range, was both boosted and tempered by announcements of refinery closure or possible a sale and restart.

Amidst the confusion, our RSI dropped to the threshold of bottoming territory at 34.41 while the MACD took a more positive turn towards its signal-line with the index jump and possible bullishness.

At first glance, the indicator divergences may hint at further index strength outside the high profile news of recent weeks. While the dust settles, we are still watching our 625 – 650 resistance thoughts should the restrained Week 26 action gain momentum.


DIRTY TANKERS

A tight range marked the Dirty Tanker index for Week 26, fixing at 680. Staying in the midst of our Week 15 675 – 700 resistance thoughts, the index kept to a tight 3-point spread to parallel the previous week’s fix.

Our RSI stayed around neutral at 42.02 while the MACD, alone in its bullishness, continued an excursion across the signal line.

Still seeming to have a challenge with our 675 – 700 resistance zone, the Dirty Tankers are under observation for building signs of renewed energy.


Clean drop, Dirty rise. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 24 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

Taking a dive in Week 24, the Clean Tanker Index fixed at 491 after a 16-point decline. Previously of course, we had opened our big mouth and remarked on the lack of channel break-out signs.

Still in neutral territory, our RSI declined to 41.14, and the MACD happily followed the index and strengthened its decline.

Now eyeballing our gloomier 450 target, we wait to see if the Clean Tankers’ weakness is just a test of our low 500s support thoughts, or a heavier attraction to seasonal lows.


DIRTY TANKERS

A 662 fix marked an upwardly mobile Week 24 for the Dirty Tanker Index. Seemingly taking another tilt at our 675 – 700 resistance, the index took a 17-point surge from a small gap up at the open.

Our RSI reached towards neutral territory, climbing to 37.42. The MACD also took a crook upwards and parked on the signal-line, awaiting a possible excursion into bullish country.

With all the Dirty Tankers’ slightly bullish signs, we await another test of our Week 15 675 – 700 resistance ideas. Another failure may mean a return to the sideways wandering of recent months.


$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF: Week 24 commentary.

by Dave Walker

BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


For Week 24, $BDRY closed up slightly at 12.39 and at first glance this ETF has come across as a real yawner over the past few weeks. However, a closer look reveals some incrementally higher closes as the fund sneaks slowly into our $12 – $14 resistance zone.

Pushing ever higher, our RSI at 71.71 reached a peakish-looking value. Compare this to Week 18’s RSI of 38.70 at a $12.25 close, hence our yawns. The MACD stayed at an upward snail’s pace, just shy of positive values yet again.

Is $BDRY building a foundation here? Bringing up Week 18’s commentary yet again, we muttered something about consolidation around present values. $BDRY may be experiencing some tempering effects from lack-lustre Supra and Panamax forward curves being offset by Capesize exuberance. Overall the impression is of BDRY gingerly building support just below current levels, offering a welcome buffer against those volatile indices. However a weather eye will also be kept on peakish signals as we tread carefully on eggshell-like support.


Week 24 Baltic Supramax Index


Week 24 Baltic Panamax Index


Week 24 Baltic Capesize Index


*Disclaimer: superiormar.com holds no stock in $BDRY