Panamaxes retreat from our resistance zone; Capes surge. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 23 commentary.

by Dave Walker


HANDYSIZE

For Week 23 the Handysize Index pushed into our low-400s resistance thoughts, rising steadily to a 412 fix.

Our RSI dropped a little further to a still-strong 55.19 and the MACD rose further away from the signal-line, lifted by the index action.

A rise from the recent shallow trough appears possible given the general mood of the index, although the Handies are now into our upside resistance thoughts from Week 20. However the overall strength may be there to push further. Should index strength continue to build, we have a tentative upside target in the 475 – 500 area.


SUPRAMAX

Still retreating from our 675 – 775 resistance zone, in Week 23 the Supramax Index fell a further 29 points to a 719 fix.

Our RSI declined towards neutrality at 44.68 while the MACD took a slight diversion towards the signal-line and bearishness.

All may not be lost for the Supras however, with a hint of possible resistance building just below present levels. Weeks 15 – 16’s turning point around 710 – 715 may be an area to watch for support, and the Supras are on that threshold now.


PANAMAX

Retreating to a 1213 fix for Week 23, the Panamax Index stalled and fell away from our Week 19 1350 – 1400 upside resistance target. Reinforcing our previous thoughts of peakiness in the index, the Panamaxes took a 112-point drop.

Our RSI, still in peakish values, declined to 75.07 as the MACD took an abrupt pause and flattened out with the index drop.

At first glance, the index drop seems somewhat stronger than the possible consolidation mentioned in our Week 21 comments. If the Panamax weakness builds, we’re watching our Week 17 target in the 975 – 1000 zone for support.


CAPESIZE

For Week 23 the Capesize Index boldly reached into our Week 20 1800 – 2000 upside resistance ideas and fixed at 1862, casting shade on our previous mutterings of slowing momentum. The index may be mimicking the action around our 1000 – 1200 resistance ideas from the dark days of Week 14. That target served as a mere ladder-rung for the Capes in Weeks 18 – 19.

Our RSI reached well into its peaking zone at 79.40 while the MACD grew more bullish, slightly diverging from the signal-line.

As before we’re cautious around this Week 20 1800 – 2000 target, even with peakish-looking indicators. The Capes have thumbed their noses at us before and surged to greater heights, (or deeper lows) with resistance and support targets often barely-acknowledged stepping stones in this volatile index. All the same, we’re watching closely now that the index has entered our resistance target zone.


Clean Tankers dither; Dirty Tankers to try again? Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 23 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 23 the Clean Tanker Index gapped down and reached a 515 low early on before recovering to fix at 521. The recent index action seems to be bracketing a sideways channel, with no impetus to break out in either direction visible yet.

Our RSI was basically unchanged, in neutral territory at 43.92 as the MACD drifted down and away from the signal line, both giving possibly weak signs of building strength.

Our Week 20 thoughts of resistance just above present levels appear to have been borne out somewhat, and some support in the mid-to-low 500s is now visible. We mentioned this downside target back in Week 3 of this year. The Clean Tankers having strength enough to rise out of this zone remains to be seen, but it may be building. The 450 area serves as our more pessimistic target if the present support weakens.


DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 23 the Dirty Tanker Index pulled up from its recent retreat after failing to pierce our Week 15 675 – 700 resistance zone . Finding a fix at 643, the index was up 9 points despite touching 632 in mid-week.

Our RSI kept pace with the index, rising slightly above bottoming values to 30.21. The MACD took a turn towards its signal-line, closing on a possible crossing.

Seemingly in channel mode as per our recent observations, are the Dirty Tankers taking a pause before trying for our 675 – 700 resistance again? Too early to tell in our case, and in our usual caution we’re keeping a weather eye on our mid-500s support thoughts from Week 12.

Clean Tankers rise and pause: Dirty Tankers drop. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 22 commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 22 the Clean Tanker Index fixed at 537, showing a very tight 4-point range. Our Week 20 thoughts of upside resistance building around present values may be gaining some credibility, although Week 22’s strong gap-up on open is quite noticeable.

Our RSI climbed through neutrality to 43.53 while the MACD continued to trail off towards the signal-line, weakening in its downtrend.

Our mid-500s support ideas from back in January of this year, and mentioned several times since, have been tested in the last few weeks. Our recent upside resistance target around 550 – 575 may be seeing some acknowledgement with Week 22’s high of 541, but let’s not read too much into the indices during a holiday week. Overall the Clean Tankers may still be gaining strength.


DIRTY TANKERS

Dropping again during Week 22, the Dirty Tanker Index continued to rebound off our 675 – 700 resistance zone and fixed at 636, down another 9 points.

Our RSI dropped further towards bottoming territory at 24.93. The MACD shied away from crossing the signal-line, acknowledging the recent bearishness, but both indicators may be hinting at gathering strength even as the index drops.

The recent index action somewhat confirms our Week 21 thoughts of some sideways motion, as the index takes a trip back to Week 13 / 14 levels and hopefully support around the 2016 and 2017 lows. We’re watching to see if the index is good for another run at our 675 – 700 resistance.


Supras retreat from our resistance zone: Pmax & Capes peaky? Baltic Dry Bulk Indices: Week 22 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Another small gain marked the Handysize Index for Week 22 with a fix at 398, up 4 points. Cautiously feeling its way, the index reached the threshold of our lower-400s resistance ideas from Week 20.

Our RSI pulled back to 59.61 as the MACD rose away from its side-by-side cruising with the signal-line, both indicators possibly hinting at a little index stamina.

We’re looking for signs of our previous support ideas just below present index levels, but as the Handies gain our low-400s resistance thoughts from Week 20 are also on the radar.


SUPRAMAX

The Supramax Index retreated from our 775 – 875 resistance zone (from back in Week 7) and dropped 20 points in Week 22 to a 752 Friday fix.

Our RSI retreated to 55.70 while the MACD strayed slightly off its bullish course towards the signal-line. If this Supra retreat is contained, these indicators could show some index resilience.

Our previous thoughts of support in the 700 – 725 range could be tested, but in such a narrow channel another crack at our 775 – 875 resistance is always in the cards.


PANAMAX

Reaching for our 1350 – 1400 upside/resistance target, the Panamax Index reached 1340 before settling to Week 22’s fix at 1335.

Our still-peaky RSI was little changed at 93.27, reinforcing our slowing momentum thoughts. A now-positive MACD charged bullishly onward, perhaps lagging too far to be relevant

For now our resistance target appears to be in reach, but the slowed index momentum is noticeable. It’s hard for us to ignore the signs of peakishness in the Panamaxes. However, as previously mentioned, our 1350 – 1400 target may become a consolidation zone rather than hard resistance.


CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index rose to a 1620 fix for Week 22, but not before touching a high of 1659 mid-week. This left us a small upper wick on Week 22’s candlestick, hinting at possible momentum loss.

Our RSI pushed further into peaky territory for the Capes, reaching 72.07. The MACD continued bullishly, pulling away from the signal line with the recent index momentum.

With our 1800 – 2000 resistance target from Week 20 in sight and some of our indicators looking a little peaky, the head-scratching begins ( well, maybe more intense head-scratching). With possible shrinking momentum, do the Capes have the strength to treat this zone as a consolidation step and move on? (Note our 1000 – 1200 target from Week 19’s commentary ) On the other hand, are the Capes looking to pull back? The plot thickens…

$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF: Week 22 commentary.

by Dave Walker


$BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


$BDRY opened a shade higher for Week 22, but mostly spent the week sitting at the low end of our previous $12 – $14 resistance thoughts to close at $12.25.

Our RSI remained virtually unchanged at 56.42, retaining some index strength. The MACD, lagging and still bullish, came close to its zero point and positive values.


As the BDRY chart flattened out our indicators hinted at possible support in the the $10.50 – $11.00 range, even as we keep an eye on our previous support ideas in the $9.00 area. As BDRY’s 3-month FFA window rolls forward BDRY may gain strength to push into the recent resistance. However, a glance at the Baltic Indices show some slight momentum loss so we’ll see how the tug-of-war goes.


Week 22 Baltic Capesize Shipping Index


Week 22 Baltic Panamax Shipping Index


Week 22 Baltic Supramax Shipping Index


*Disclaimer: Superior Maritime does not hold any stock in $BDRY.


Dirty Tankers pull back; Clean Tankers firming up? Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 20 commentary.

by Dave Walker


CLEAN TANKERS

A 512 fix finished a tight range for the Week 20 Clean Tanker Index, building on our previous consolidation/support thoughts. Skimming a 504 low mid-week however, the index continued to test our mid-to-low 500s support zone.

The RSI rose slightly to 37.61, still diverging from the general downtrend and hinting at possible index strength. The MACD pushed further into negative values, stretching the index bungee-cord and showing little sign of flattening out yet.

With the slight consolidation signs over the past two weeks, the index may be firming up on these lows. Some upside resistance building just above current levels is possible though, if the index continues loitering at these values. Our previous upside target around 625 – 650 may still be ambitious, so we’re keeping a sideways eye on the 400 – 450 range should present support give way.


DIRTY TANKERS

The Dirty Tanker Index fell in Week 20, fixing down at 678 and taking a bite out of previous gains. In line with our 675 – 700 resistance thoughts from Week 15, the index fell away through the rest of the week.

The RSI just reached 33.70 as the MACD also weakened on its path to a bullish signal-line crossing, both indicators still rising but only just.

The Week 20 pullback makes us glance towards our Week 12 support ideas in the mid-500s again, although the overall look of the index and our indicators may hint at some further strength. Another attempt at our 675 – 700 upside resistance zone would be welcome.

$BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk ETF: Week 20 commentary.

by Dave Walker

$BDRY profile: ”The Fund’s investment objective is to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures, before expenses and liabilities of the Fund, by tracking the performance of a portfolio consisting of a three-month strip of the nearest calendar quarter of futures contracts on specified indexes that measure rates for shipping dry bulk freight.” Source: drybulketf.com

$BDRY Forward Freight Agreement weighting: Capesize: 50%, Panamax: 40%, Supramax: 10%.


Week 20 saw $BDRY retreat slightly, in line with our $12 – $14 resistance ideas, to close at $11.84, down from a $12.41 open.

Our RSI took an interesting streak upwards to 55.04 while the MACD approached positive values, although weakening a little from the Week 19 retreat. The continued charge of the RSI could suggest some building strength, but the overall feel hints at possible consolidation as momentum fades.

It remains to be seen if $BDRY is taking a rest or will move on to greater things. A quick glance at the weekly Baltic Capesize Index below (50% BDRY weighting) shows a slight loss of momentum, although within a generally positive Week 20.

Downside support may still be in the $9.00 range for $BDRY, with unconfirmed support possibly building around current levels. Volatility in dry bulk shipping indices being a fact of life (there, we’ve given a nod to
those nasty fundamentals again), we can always cast a hopeful eye at the iron ore price and China’s lowered port stockpiles.


Week 20 Baltic Capesize Shipping Index:


Week 20 Baltic Panamax Shipping Index:


*Disclaimer: Superior Maritime does not hold any stock in $BDRY.

Capes pause, Panamaxes sit tight. Baltic Dry Indices – Week 18 commentary.

by Dave Walker

HANDYSIZE

Continuing its slow fade in Week 18, the Handysize Index wandered through a tight 4-point range to fix at 382. In a slowing downtrend the Handies displayed some uncertainty as the index weakened.

The RSI continued to diverge, gaining to 48.20 and possibly hinting at weaker bearishness. As before the MACD tracked horizontally, staying just above its signal line and resisting a bearish line-crossing. However, the general index weakness may overcome the indicators regardless.

Back in Week 15 we discussed the Handies’ retreat from our upper-400s resistance and a slowing downtrend above our lower-300s support target. We’re still watching the lower 300s for potential support should the weakness grow stronger, but keeping an eye on the diverging RSI just in case.


SUPRAMAX

Retreating slightly from the previous two weeks’ climbing, the Week 18 Supramax Index declined steadily to a 752 fix. Shading most of the previous week’s gains, our 775 – 875 resistance zone from Week 7 and Week 13 appears to have flexed its muscle once more.

The RSI climbed further to 61.11, flirting with peakish levels for the Supras. The MACD wavered a little, easing its upward slope as the index weakened.

It remains to be seen if our Week 17 low-700s support ideas will have any strength, and if the index attempts another push into the 775 – 875 region. As weakness returns and the RSI approaches peakish territory, we’re watching that area with interest.


PANAMAX

Staying in a tight 3-point range the Week 18 Panamax Index barely registered on the chart, fixing up a single point on the week at 1190. Our thoughts of support and/or attraction around 975 – 1000 may be coming to bear as the index momentum slows again.

The RSI approached peaky ground for the Panamaxes, settling at 73.97. Whether the tight range and high RSI indicate a loss of momentum in the index remains to be seen. The lagging MACD stayed blindly bullish in its course with no hint of weakness yet.

The slight fizzle in the Panamaxes has us watching our 975 – 1000 support ideas once more. A less steep climb could create a less peakish RSI, however the overall feel seems to lean towards index weakness. Another small consolidation step to maintain index strength would be a welcome sight.


CAPESIZE

A gap up at the open marked the continued surge in the Capesize Index for Week 18, fixing up overall at 1290 after falling from a 1420 high. The index solidly entered our
Week 14 resistance target of 1000 – 1200 but then pulled back just in time to lend our ideas some credibility.

The RSI rose into its neutral zone at 43.31, while the still-negative MACD reinforced its bullish signal-line crossing with the index move.

Our 1000 – 1200 resistance thoughts from Week 14 are visible as a sizable blip on the chart, so this loss of momentum came late in the week and may still hold some sway. Some consolidation for the index to build on would be a good thing, but should weakness set in harder the recent heavy lows are too close for comfort.


Clean Tankers’ light extinguished. Baltic Tanker Indices – Week 18 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

Week 18’s Clean Tanker Index extinguished the faint hope seen over past weeks and steadily declined to a 536 fix, down 45 points on the week. Thumbing its nose at our thoughts of possible recovery, the messy candlestick formation was just that – messy.

The RSI divergence that gave previous hope and seemed to hold the index faded, falling below neutral to 35.71. In turn the MACD resumed its bearish course, reflecting the loss of index strength.

Our 625 – 650 resistance ideas proved too high, with the index turning down in the upper 500s. With the latest move our attention is again on our mid-500s target from Week 15. Some support may develop at or below that zone, at values the Clean Tanker Index held through mid-2018.


DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 18 the Dirty Tanker Index echoed the range seen in the previous week. Fixing up a few points at 645, the index continued to hover just below our 675 – 700 resistance thoughts.

The RSI stayed relatively flat at 18.65, still maintaining a strong bottoming stance. Very slowly closing on the signal line, the MACD also mimicked the sideways travel as the index flattened out.

Well above our Week 12 mid-500s support and holding below our 675 – 700 resistance zone, the Dirty Tankers stayed relatively inert. Some bias to the upside would be welcome, but energy to overcome the inertia hasn’t been seen so far.