Panamax flash in the pan? Baltic Dry Indices: Week 6 commentary.

HANDYSIZE

While dropping to a teeth-grinding 290 in Week 6, the Handysize Index actually eased in its recent plunge. After gapping down on the week’s open the overall performance could be called….um…less abysmal – a mere 11 points down.

What optimism might be gleaned at this point? The RSI firmly at zero and lagging MACD at heavily negative values might suggest a rest is coming, but the next month appears rough.

A recovery to our Week 4 target in the low 400s may be possible but some recovery in cargo fundamentals is needed.

Yes, fundamentals; there – we said it.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 6 the Supramax Index gapped down at a 438 open, but declining rather than plunging to a 415 close; a somewhat less than horrendous week.

The RSI stayed reasonably flat at 4.30 as the heavily negative MACD lagged behind a possible approaching pause, both indicators well into bottoming territory.

With successive targets being blown through in the Supras’ dive, the possibility of these low 400s levels offering any consolidation seems weak. However, this is the first sign of index easing in weeks.

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PANAMAX

Alone amongst the dry bulk indices, the Panamax Index gained in Week 6 to a 574 fix from a 552 open.

If this is some belated support from our old target in the low 700s, it’s a dim flash in the pan. The RSI rose a little to 9.35 with the move and the heavily negative MACD nudged at the -200s, both indicators into their nether regions.

Support may be possible in the upper 300s, perhaps into the low 400s area, but let’s not build too quickly on this small (and lonely) bright spot in the dry-bulk gloom.

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CAPESIZE

With a 792 Friday fix for Week 6, the Capesize Index pushed some way through our 1000-1050 downside target with a gap-down open. The index is now just below the 824 low point of 2018. With a less profound plunge than the other indices so far, the late-to-the-funeral Capes showed some remarkable restraint.

The RSI at 31.58 is coming within sight of bottoming territory, and the MACD of course continued down unabated after its bearish crossing of the signal line.

Perhaps our thoughts of some support in the 500s will come to pass, although we’re still watching into the 300s given the physical circumstances out there. We’ve already used the words “remarkable restraint” in a Cape index context: we shouldn’t jinx things any further.

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Continuing carnage – Baltic Dry Indices: Week 5 commentary.

A HAPPY & PROSPEROUS

LUNAR NEW YEAR!

(Even if it seems hollow in the face of these dry bulk numbers….)

HANDYSIZE

For Week 5 the Handysize index carnage continued, once again gapping down at the open and even accelerating the plunge to a 311 fix, as can be seen on the candlestick chart. With most of the indices in a race to the bottom ahead of the Lunar New Year, all bets appear to be off.

No influence from our previous downside target in the low 400s was seen. Any projections for future targets were reached and surpassed within the weekly period. The RSI was not only in single digits, it reached a single digit at barely above a value of 1.

The heavily negative and lagging MACD also plunged, with
indicators giving no clear idea of an upcoming resting zone for possibly the next week or so.

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SUPRAMAX

The Supramax index also continued its swan dive in Week 5 and perhaps stating the obvious, our pessimism about any support developing was confirmed. Closing at a 450 fix with no lower target in sight as yet, the upcoming Lunar Year could well extend the gloominess.

With the RSI at 4.20 and the lagging MACD plunging well into negative values, an overall wait-and-see attitude pervades the atmosphere. The only saving grace may be the relative leveling-off of the RSI indicator,which may hint at an as-yet-unseen consolidation area.

The indices are in the basement along with their indicators, and those nasty industry fundamentals will have to run their course.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax index followed the Handies and Supras in Week 5, accelerating its plunge to a 560 Friday fix. As expected, any influence from the low 700s area never materialized.

Like the Supramax index the Panamax RSI also showed some consistency, leveling out somewhat at 7.19. This small divergence in the RSI may hint at some kind of upcoming hesitation in the headlong dive. The lagging MACD followed the index as it plunged further into negative bottoming (bottomless?) values.

We were tempted to suggest a downside target (“area of
influence” perhaps?) in the low 500s zone, but the Panamaxes are dangerously close to that value now.
An understatement maybe, but confidence is not high.

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CAPESIZE

In Week 5, the Capesize index was seemingly infected by the malaise in its sister indices. Buckling at the knees and dropping to our 1000-1050 downside target area, the index closed at 1014. Whether the 1000-1050 area gives any support remains to be seen in the face of the overall dry bulk shipping collapse.

Having broken out of the past month’s doldrums, the Capes showed an RSI dropping slightly below neutral at 37.29 and a MACD that completed its crossing of the signal line to the bearish side.

To acknowledge the fundamentals, the re-shuffling in world trade, Chinese iron ore specifications and also the tragic Brazilian tailings-dam disaster are no doubt having an effect. With the present grim situation a downside target in the mid-300s area isn’t out of the running, with our hope for a rest in the 500s somewhere.

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Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 5 commentary.

A HAPPY & PROSPEROUS

LUNAR NEW YEAR!

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 5 the Clean Tanker index pushed down to fix at 649, barely through our 650-675 support thoughts.

Staying in its sideways pattern, the index showed a still-solid RSI of 54.63 while the MACD continued its bearishness after crossing the signal line previously.

For now the index is only just outside its recent range, so we’ll watch for the 650-675 zone to show any weakness in previous support.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 5 the Dirty Tanker index slipped off Week 4’s rest and dropped to a 843 fix by Friday.

With our hopes fading for any pull from the 900-925 region, the RSI dribbled below neutrality to 38.01 and the lagging MACD continued its bearish plunge unabated.

Some downside support may be developing around the low 700s area but it’s early days yet, and the index has yet to show any decent recovery from the January dive.

Tankers take a rest – Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 4 technical commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

Week 4 had the Clean Tanker index adhering tightly to a narrow band right at our 650-675 support ideas, seemingly unwilling to test below 650. The index gained on the week, climbing fairly steadily to a 672 Friday fix.

The RSI followed, gaining a little to 55.62 as the MACD crossed just over its signal line to bearishness. The possibility may exist of the index continuing in the doldrums for a short while.

Any weakness around the 650 area will have us eyeing the 475-500 zone for downward breaks. Should stronger upward forces prevail, which seems the least likely at the moment, our target is around the low 800s area.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 4 the Dirty Tanker index took a rest and even finished the week slightly up at 877, leaving a small lower wick on the week’s candlestick. Our thoughts of some intermediate support may have kicked in a little early.

However the index isn’t far below our previous 900-925 support ideas, which may be exerting some pull. The RSI lost influence, edging closer to neutral while the lagging MACD continued its bearish dive.

It remains to be seen what influence, if any, that 900-925
zone might be having.

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Tankers take a rest – Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 4 technical commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

Week 4 had the Clean Tanker index adhering tightly to a narrow band right at our 650-675 support ideas, seemingly unwilling to test below 650. The index gained on the week, climbing fairly steadily to a 672 Friday fix.

The RSI followed, gaining a little to 55.62 as the MACD crossed just over its signal line to bearishness. The possibility may exist of the index continuing in the doldrums for a short while.

Any weakness around the 650 area will have us eyeing the 475-500 zone for downward breaks. Should stronger upward forces prevail, which seems the least likely at the moment, our target is around the low 800s area.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 4 the Dirty Tanker index took a rest and even finished the week slightly up at 877, leaving a small lower wick on the week’s candlestick. Our thoughts of some intermediate support may have kicked in a little early.

However the index isn’t far below our previous 900-925 support ideas, which may be exerting some pull. The RSI lost influence, edging closer to neutral while the lagging MACD continued its bearish dive.

It remains to be seen what influence, if any, that 900-925
zone might be having.

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Tanker weakness continues – Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 3 2019 technical commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 3 the Clean Tanker index appeared to rest a little, following our Week 2 thoughts of the index taking a rest and the low 700s zone showing some attraction.

With a 661 fix at week’s end, the clean tankers still showed some weakness as the MACD dropped, then parked on its signal line.The RSI also faded somewhat to 55.01, with both indicators showing hangover symptoms from the New Year’s plunge.

Some support has consolidated in the 650-675 area, but overall index weakness and a possible bearish crossing of the MACD signal line will be something to watch for. Our next downside target is tentatively in the mid-500s range, should the current support weaken. Some small hope for consolidation may stem from the small wicks visible on the past two weeks’ candlesticks.

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DIRTY TANKERS

The Dirty Tanker index continued to tumble in Week 3, fixing at 873 from a 925 weekly open. While the overall index plunge seeming to strengthen, the dirty tankers confirmed some previous fears and pushed down through our 900-925 support ideas.

The RSI dribbled down to 51.13, edging closer to neutral territory as the MACD continued its bearish run, neither indicator inspiring much confidence for recovery yet.

Whether the 900-925 zone provides some attraction remains to be seen, and we’re eyeing the 550-575 area in this gloomy period. Some intermediate support is possible in the 750 region.

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Clean Plunge / Dirty Plunge: Baltic Tanker Indices – Week 2 2019

Welcome to 2019. Well, a week or two certainly makes a difference, doesn’t it? Our last commentary was for Week 50, 2018 and we posted dry bulk and tanker charts through the holiday period, watching as the black marks began to pile up. Our friend Jerome Sorrel summed it up well on the DryBulkPelagos blog – “the sound of the deflating shipping market.

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CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 2 of 2019, our previous comments on peakyness in the Clean Tanker index might have borne some fruit. Once upon a time, back in 2018/Week 48 we expressed concerns about how peaky the Clean Tankers might be. Naturally, right after that the index surged upwards, just popping through the 900 mark.
Running through Week 51 of 2018 however, the index took a pointed downturn, not pausing until it poked a little through our possible support thoughts around 725-750 to close at 667.
Of course, the index up-surge made us look at support closer to the low 800s, but ’twas not to be.

Perched around the mid-to-upper 600s, the chart gives us a small upper candlestick wick and thoughts of further down-moves, although it’s possible that our previous 725-750 support zone is exerting a little influence. The RSI didn’t fall that far in the downswing, staying at off-peak but relatively high values at 58.49. The MACD headed towards a bearish signal-line crossing but has a way to go yet.

Let’s take a breath and see if the index is indeed taking a rest, and we’ll continue watching the low 700s for further moderating influence.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 2 the Dirty Tanker Index continued to tumble, bouncing off our previous 1220-1250 upside resistance ideas, which we mentioned back as far as 2018/Week 45.
As we eyed our previous support thoughts around 900-925, the index weakened its plunge a little and fixed just above that zone at 929.

The MACD cleanly crossed the signal line into bearish territory, while the RSI still hinted at some remaining index strength as it declined gently to 57.72.

It remains to be seen whether the index will take a solid poke at the 900-925 zone, or if the recentheavy weakness is ready for some consolidation.

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Handies and Panamaxes pause, Supras and Capes gain (a little). Baltic Dry Indices – Week 49 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index took a rest in Week 49, halting its downtrend just above our 615-620 support ideas from a month ago. Barely visible on the chart, the index closed at 625, down a whole single point on the week.

The RSI continued its downtrend to 69.33, still not far off peakishness. The MACD faded to park itself squarely on the signal line, just on the edge of bearishness.

Perhaps we’re at a small crossroads for the Handies, and it remains to be seen if some support consolidates itself. A gloomy resolution could give us 500-550 as our next downside support. For now however, there may be some inclination to retain some buoyancy in the 600-650 zone.

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SUPRAMAX

For Week 49 a glimmer of hope was seen in the Supramax Index, as it maintained a modest climb to 953 at the Friday fix. Our 960-975 support thoughts from back in Week 44 may be influencing the index at this point.

The RSI continued to wander into bottoming territory
at 23.75, and the lagging, negatively-valued MACD kept weakening in its bearish path.

As these patterns continue to work out, perhaps we’re seeing possible consolidation above our next downside support
target in the 900 region. Any recovery at these levels could see some resistance around the 1000-1150 area.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax Index squeezed into a tight range of five points for Week 49, displaying some indecision after the upward boost of Week 48. The index closed as it opened at 1469.

The RSI hovered around neutrality at 43.56 and the lagging MACD stayed weakly bearish, neither giving up much in the way of directional clues.

This slight fizzle might hint at some consolidation above our low-1400s support thoughts from Week 45, but we’re keeping an eye on the 1350-1375 zone in case of more weakness.

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CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index took a 559-point surge upwards in Week 49, in a range which completely enveloped that of the ominous-looking Week 48 candlestick.

The action nudged the RSI up into neutral territory and made the MACD bend a little further towards the signal line and bullishness, hinting at the possibility of more index strength.

So far our consolidation ideas in the Capes have been borne out a little. However, the index has now bumped up against our low-2000s resistance ideas for two consecutive weeks. It will be worth watching to see if the index manages to push upwards through this zone.

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Clean Tankers continue to surge. Baltic Tanker Indices – Week 49 technical commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

The Clean Tanker index took a near-50 point gap up to open Week 49, and surged to close at 894. Not having seen this level since 2010, the index seemed somewhat precarious with the RSI at 89.22.

The lagging MACD followed the surge of course, reaching a strongly positive value that may reinforce the precarious look of this index.

Will 1000 points be broken? Perhaps; the possibility of building support in the 725-750 area seems to be there, and the 1000 zone is our next upside resistance target.

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DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 49 the Dirty Tanker index climbed closer to our 1200-1225 upside resistance thoughts, the Friday fix being 1167.

The MACD wavered on its weakly bullish path, and the RSI sailed along at a high value of 86.29. Peakishness seems to be the general impression.

Knocking on the door of 2014 highs, the index may be developing the strength to test the 1200-1225 zone. Observing the peakish hints however, we are also keeping an eye on our 900-925 downside support target.

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