Capes & Supras surge. Baltic Dry Indices: Week 17 commentary.

by Dave Walker


HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index decline shrank even further in the 4-day Week 17, showing a very tight 3-point range to fix at 389, almost level with the previous week’s fix. What optimism may be drawn from this is hard to say.

The RSI climbed into divergence, forging up through neutrality and maybe offering further optimism. As with previous weeks the MACD has cruised along almost level, staying just above the signal line since crossing it in Weeks 12-13.

Even with some slight technical optimism, there seems to be little in the way of upward-moving incentive so far. As we watch our lower 300s downside mark, the RSI divergence and slowed downtrend may yet brighten the day for the Handies.


SUPRAMAX

Gapping up almost 20 points at the Week 17 open, the Supramax Index surged almost 30 points to its 780 Friday fix. This puts the index just over the threshold of the 775 – 875 resistance ideas that have been on our radar since Week 7.

The RSI at 54.44 reinforced the index strength while the MACD pulled away from its lean towards the signal line and bullishly followed the rest of the pack.

After casting our chicken bones and testing the wind, the strength of this Supra surge could develop some support around the low 700s, up from our previous 550 – 600 thoughts from Week 15. Let’s see what strength our 775 – 875 resistance ideas may have after showing some muscle back in Week 13.


PANAMAX

A gap up and further strength marked the Panamax Index for Week 17. Fixing at 1186 after a 15-point climb, the progress through the week was steady. The tighter range may indicate some loss of index momentum, but recent strength has so far been on the Panamaxes’ side.

The RSI gained to a strong 57.07 to boost the index as the lagging MACD continued with little wavering to be seen. Back in Week 8 we made noises about possible resistances around the 900 / 975 – 1000 regions, both visible during the recent index climb. Registering as consolidating areas along the way, these points gave the stair-step effect we’ve seen in the Panamaxes before.

The overall strength in the Panamaxes may still have steam, and could see support building in the 975 -1000 zone. Our next resistance target is in the 1350 – 1400 region, although some attraction may still exist around that 975 – 1000 area.


CAPESIZE

For Week 17 the Capesize Index took a more Cape-like surge, with a sizable gap up and fix at 783 after climbing over 200 points. We’re watching with great interest as the index approaches our Week 14 upside resistance target in the 1000 – 1200 range.

The RSI surged with the index, climbing out of bottoming values to reach 29.71 and hopefully further strength. The heavily negative MACD barely crossed the signal line into bullish hopefulness.

While there may be no champagne corks popping yet, Week 17 was a ray of hope amidst the general Capesize uncertainty. Should the index strength continue, our 1000 – 1200 zone resistance thoughts may just be a chart footnote…..hopefully.


Dirty Tankers fizzle, Clean Tankers shine a light. Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 17 commentary.

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

The Clean Tanker Index took a positive turn on Week 17, eclipsing the previous week’s range to fix at 584. Our ideas of index optimism were somewhat reinforced but we won’t jump to conclusions yet, given such a small week 17 range. All the same, the chart could still have a very messy Morning Star Doji forming.

The RSI stayed in the neutral zone, rising slightly to 41.23 to maintain its diverging attitude. Following the index a little, the MACD‘s downtrend eased very slightly to more-or-less parallel its signal line.

Overall, the slight bullishness has the index consolidating around the pre-spike lows of Weeks 9 & 10. Even with a diverging RSI, this slight recovery just above our mid-500s support thoughts may be tempered by possible resistance in the 625 – 650 zone.


DIRTY TANKERS

The recent enthusiasm in the Dirty Tanker Index fizzled a little in Week 17, with the index fixing down overall at 640 after seeing a low of 635. Some consolidation may develop as a result of this stumble, and our wild ideas of a reach to 900-zone values are growing dimmer.

Still in nether region values, the RSI rose to 18.43 as the MACD kept on a more shallow trajectory, gradually closing on its signal line. Both indicators hint at weakening bearishness, but as with recent weeks the index has paid scant attention to them.

The index rise towards the end of the week was encouraging however, and as before we’re watching our 675 – 700 target for possible resistance. Should the Week 17 weakness persist, our mid-500s support thoughts from back in Week 12’s comments are always waiting for us.


Clean Tankers pull up; Dirty Tankers pause. Baltic Tanker Indices – Week 11 commentary

by Dave Walker

CLEAN TANKERS

In Week 11 the Clean Tanker Index pulled up from our mid-500s support estimate from Week 3, fixing at 603.

The RSI trailed down closer to bottoming values at 31.93 and the MACD diverged from its downtrend to angle more towards its signal line, acknowledging the Week 11 upturn.

The index may be on track to take a run at our previous 675-700 upside resistance ideas but it’s early days yet as we watch Week 12 for further indications.


DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 11 the Dirty Tanker Index slowed its downward momentum, fixing at 737 on a tight 5-point range for the week and taking a pause in the midst of our mid-700s support thoughts.

The RSI at 22.07 stayed in its bottoming zone, while nothing dissuaded the MACD from wavering off its bearish downtrend.

The general index weakness has us still watching our 675-700 zone as secondary support, but the slow-down in downward momentum may be an encouraging recovery sign. For upside resistance in the case of a turnaround, we’re still watching our previous target in the 900-925 area.

Tankers fading – Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 6 commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

Closing Week 6 at 624, the Clean Tanker index continued to lose strength. After a gap-down open below our previous 650-675 support some bearish momentum seems to be building, giving our previous suspicions some weight.

The RSI at 53.90 maintained the only hope of some continued strength, while the MACD stayed bearish after recently crossing the signal line.

The 650-675 zone may now become an upside resistance area should the present weakness continue. For downside targets, we’re watching the low 500s area for some support but hold out some hope for the 650-675 area to still exert some influence.

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DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 6 the Dirty Tanker index opened with a heavy gap down and fixed down at 795. Sharp-eyed chart watchers will note we’re now knocking at the door of 2018 index levels.

The RSI at 24.78 faded into bottoming territory while the MACD continued its uninterrupted fall, lagging but still positively valued.

There may be some room to fall yet, although we’re still holding out for some kind of pause or even consolidation around our low 700s target.

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Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 5 commentary.

A HAPPY & PROSPEROUS

LUNAR NEW YEAR!

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 5 the Clean Tanker index pushed down to fix at 649, barely through our 650-675 support thoughts.

Staying in its sideways pattern, the index showed a still-solid RSI of 54.63 while the MACD continued its bearishness after crossing the signal line previously.

For now the index is only just outside its recent range, so we’ll watch for the 650-675 zone to show any weakness in previous support.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 5 the Dirty Tanker index slipped off Week 4’s rest and dropped to a 843 fix by Friday.

With our hopes fading for any pull from the 900-925 region, the RSI dribbled below neutrality to 38.01 and the lagging MACD continued its bearish plunge unabated.

Some downside support may be developing around the low 700s area but it’s early days yet, and the index has yet to show any decent recovery from the January dive.

Tankers take a rest – Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 4 technical commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

Week 4 had the Clean Tanker index adhering tightly to a narrow band right at our 650-675 support ideas, seemingly unwilling to test below 650. The index gained on the week, climbing fairly steadily to a 672 Friday fix.

The RSI followed, gaining a little to 55.62 as the MACD crossed just over its signal line to bearishness. The possibility may exist of the index continuing in the doldrums for a short while.

Any weakness around the 650 area will have us eyeing the 475-500 zone for downward breaks. Should stronger upward forces prevail, which seems the least likely at the moment, our target is around the low 800s area.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 4 the Dirty Tanker index took a rest and even finished the week slightly up at 877, leaving a small lower wick on the week’s candlestick. Our thoughts of some intermediate support may have kicked in a little early.

However the index isn’t far below our previous 900-925 support ideas, which may be exerting some pull. The RSI lost influence, edging closer to neutral while the lagging MACD continued its bearish dive.

It remains to be seen what influence, if any, that 900-925
zone might be having.

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Tankers take a rest – Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 4 technical commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

Week 4 had the Clean Tanker index adhering tightly to a narrow band right at our 650-675 support ideas, seemingly unwilling to test below 650. The index gained on the week, climbing fairly steadily to a 672 Friday fix.

The RSI followed, gaining a little to 55.62 as the MACD crossed just over its signal line to bearishness. The possibility may exist of the index continuing in the doldrums for a short while.

Any weakness around the 650 area will have us eyeing the 475-500 zone for downward breaks. Should stronger upward forces prevail, which seems the least likely at the moment, our target is around the low 800s area.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 4 the Dirty Tanker index took a rest and even finished the week slightly up at 877, leaving a small lower wick on the week’s candlestick. Our thoughts of some intermediate support may have kicked in a little early.

However the index isn’t far below our previous 900-925 support ideas, which may be exerting some pull. The RSI lost influence, edging closer to neutral while the lagging MACD continued its bearish dive.

It remains to be seen what influence, if any, that 900-925
zone might be having.

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Tanker weakness continues – Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 3 2019 technical commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 3 the Clean Tanker index appeared to rest a little, following our Week 2 thoughts of the index taking a rest and the low 700s zone showing some attraction.

With a 661 fix at week’s end, the clean tankers still showed some weakness as the MACD dropped, then parked on its signal line.The RSI also faded somewhat to 55.01, with both indicators showing hangover symptoms from the New Year’s plunge.

Some support has consolidated in the 650-675 area, but overall index weakness and a possible bearish crossing of the MACD signal line will be something to watch for. Our next downside target is tentatively in the mid-500s range, should the current support weaken. Some small hope for consolidation may stem from the small wicks visible on the past two weeks’ candlesticks.

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DIRTY TANKERS

The Dirty Tanker index continued to tumble in Week 3, fixing at 873 from a 925 weekly open. While the overall index plunge seeming to strengthen, the dirty tankers confirmed some previous fears and pushed down through our 900-925 support ideas.

The RSI dribbled down to 51.13, edging closer to neutral territory as the MACD continued its bearish run, neither indicator inspiring much confidence for recovery yet.

Whether the 900-925 zone provides some attraction remains to be seen, and we’re eyeing the 550-575 area in this gloomy period. Some intermediate support is possible in the 750 region.

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Clean Plunge / Dirty Plunge: Baltic Tanker Indices – Week 2 2019

Welcome to 2019. Well, a week or two certainly makes a difference, doesn’t it? Our last commentary was for Week 50, 2018 and we posted dry bulk and tanker charts through the holiday period, watching as the black marks began to pile up. Our friend Jerome Sorrel summed it up well on the DryBulkPelagos blog – “the sound of the deflating shipping market.

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CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 2 of 2019, our previous comments on peakyness in the Clean Tanker index might have borne some fruit. Once upon a time, back in 2018/Week 48 we expressed concerns about how peaky the Clean Tankers might be. Naturally, right after that the index surged upwards, just popping through the 900 mark.
Running through Week 51 of 2018 however, the index took a pointed downturn, not pausing until it poked a little through our possible support thoughts around 725-750 to close at 667.
Of course, the index up-surge made us look at support closer to the low 800s, but ’twas not to be.

Perched around the mid-to-upper 600s, the chart gives us a small upper candlestick wick and thoughts of further down-moves, although it’s possible that our previous 725-750 support zone is exerting a little influence. The RSI didn’t fall that far in the downswing, staying at off-peak but relatively high values at 58.49. The MACD headed towards a bearish signal-line crossing but has a way to go yet.

Let’s take a breath and see if the index is indeed taking a rest, and we’ll continue watching the low 700s for further moderating influence.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 2 the Dirty Tanker Index continued to tumble, bouncing off our previous 1220-1250 upside resistance ideas, which we mentioned back as far as 2018/Week 45.
As we eyed our previous support thoughts around 900-925, the index weakened its plunge a little and fixed just above that zone at 929.

The MACD cleanly crossed the signal line into bearish territory, while the RSI still hinted at some remaining index strength as it declined gently to 57.72.

It remains to be seen whether the index will take a solid poke at the 900-925 zone, or if the recentheavy weakness is ready for some consolidation.

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