Panamax flash in the pan? Baltic Dry Indices: Week 6 commentary.

HANDYSIZE

While dropping to a teeth-grinding 290 in Week 6, the Handysize Index actually eased in its recent plunge. After gapping down on the week’s open the overall performance could be called….um…less abysmal – a mere 11 points down.

What optimism might be gleaned at this point? The RSI firmly at zero and lagging MACD at heavily negative values might suggest a rest is coming, but the next month appears rough.

A recovery to our Week 4 target in the low 400s may be possible but some recovery in cargo fundamentals is needed.

Yes, fundamentals; there – we said it.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 6 the Supramax Index gapped down at a 438 open, but declining rather than plunging to a 415 close; a somewhat less than horrendous week.

The RSI stayed reasonably flat at 4.30 as the heavily negative MACD lagged behind a possible approaching pause, both indicators well into bottoming territory.

With successive targets being blown through in the Supras’ dive, the possibility of these low 400s levels offering any consolidation seems weak. However, this is the first sign of index easing in weeks.

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PANAMAX

Alone amongst the dry bulk indices, the Panamax Index gained in Week 6 to a 574 fix from a 552 open.

If this is some belated support from our old target in the low 700s, it’s a dim flash in the pan. The RSI rose a little to 9.35 with the move and the heavily negative MACD nudged at the -200s, both indicators into their nether regions.

Support may be possible in the upper 300s, perhaps into the low 400s area, but let’s not build too quickly on this small (and lonely) bright spot in the dry-bulk gloom.

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CAPESIZE

With a 792 Friday fix for Week 6, the Capesize Index pushed some way through our 1000-1050 downside target with a gap-down open. The index is now just below the 824 low point of 2018. With a less profound plunge than the other indices so far, the late-to-the-funeral Capes showed some remarkable restraint.

The RSI at 31.58 is coming within sight of bottoming territory, and the MACD of course continued down unabated after its bearish crossing of the signal line.

Perhaps our thoughts of some support in the 500s will come to pass, although we’re still watching into the 300s given the physical circumstances out there. We’ve already used the words “remarkable restraint” in a Cape index context: we shouldn’t jinx things any further.

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Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 5 commentary.

A HAPPY & PROSPEROUS

LUNAR NEW YEAR!

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 5 the Clean Tanker index pushed down to fix at 649, barely through our 650-675 support thoughts.

Staying in its sideways pattern, the index showed a still-solid RSI of 54.63 while the MACD continued its bearishness after crossing the signal line previously.

For now the index is only just outside its recent range, so we’ll watch for the 650-675 zone to show any weakness in previous support.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 5 the Dirty Tanker index slipped off Week 4’s rest and dropped to a 843 fix by Friday.

With our hopes fading for any pull from the 900-925 region, the RSI dribbled below neutrality to 38.01 and the lagging MACD continued its bearish plunge unabated.

Some downside support may be developing around the low 700s area but it’s early days yet, and the index has yet to show any decent recovery from the January dive.

Sub-capesize plunge continues – Baltic Dry Indices: Week 3 2019 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

In Week 3 the Handysize index again plunged on a gap-down 511 open, fixing at a dismal 451 for the week. Our previous fears for our 500-525 support ideas showed their teeth.

The index dive placed the RSI well into bottoming values at 14.50 and a MACD into negative values, which suggest things have gone far enough.

Of course, we shouldn’t forget old J.M. Keynes who might have said, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” The range of the plunge has us watching the low 400s for possible consolidation.

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SUPRAMAX

Week 3 continued in horrendous fashion for the Supramax index, with another gap-down open and a fix way down at 701. Starting the week well into our 800-850 area of possible influence, the carnage continued without a rest.

The RSI dropped to even smaller single digits at 6.94, far into the basement. The MACD followed on, its bearishness now well into negative value territory. Both indicators suggest some index strength is long overdue, but here we are.

Our possible support ideas should the 800-850 zone be demolished are right around the low 700s, right where the index is now. This next week may tell if consolidation, if any, is in the cards.

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PANAMAX

In Week 3 our thoughts of a braking effect on the Panamax Index’s downhill run failed to materialize.

With an gap-down open at 1118, the week ended gloomily at 1018. The RSI ran well into bottoming territory at 14.87, and the MACD followed blindly into heavily negative values.

Any braking action suggested by these indicators (see Week 2) hasn’t shown its face as yet. Our next target for any consolidation in the face of such negative index action is the low 900-925 area.

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CAPESIZE

Relative calmness in the Capesize index continued for Week 3, as a foray to a 1748 low for the week turned into a 2037 Friday fix.

As the index cruised along in our low-2000s upside
resistance
region, the RSI maintained itself some way above neutral at 49.44. A mildly bullish MACD poked its nose just above its signal line, lending some support to the index even as it tested the downside.

The recent action has us still watching the 1000-1050 zone for down-swings, with some possible easing in the mid-1500s. Should some strength develop we’ll watch for a significant break above 2000-2300. Naturally all this calm sailing causes us deep Capesize uneasiness, and seeing such tight number ranges in this index doesn’t help.

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Tanker weakness continues – Baltic Tanker Indices: Week 3 2019 technical commentary.

CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 3 the Clean Tanker index appeared to rest a little, following our Week 2 thoughts of the index taking a rest and the low 700s zone showing some attraction.

With a 661 fix at week’s end, the clean tankers still showed some weakness as the MACD dropped, then parked on its signal line.The RSI also faded somewhat to 55.01, with both indicators showing hangover symptoms from the New Year’s plunge.

Some support has consolidated in the 650-675 area, but overall index weakness and a possible bearish crossing of the MACD signal line will be something to watch for. Our next downside target is tentatively in the mid-500s range, should the current support weaken. Some small hope for consolidation may stem from the small wicks visible on the past two weeks’ candlesticks.

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DIRTY TANKERS

The Dirty Tanker index continued to tumble in Week 3, fixing at 873 from a 925 weekly open. While the overall index plunge seeming to strengthen, the dirty tankers confirmed some previous fears and pushed down through our 900-925 support ideas.

The RSI dribbled down to 51.13, edging closer to neutral territory as the MACD continued its bearish run, neither indicator inspiring much confidence for recovery yet.

Whether the 900-925 zone provides some attraction remains to be seen, and we’re eyeing the 550-575 area in this gloomy period. Some intermediate support is possible in the 750 region.

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Plunge upon plunge…except for the Capes: Baltic Dry Bulk Indices – Week 2 2019

Well, a week or two certainly makes a difference, doesn’t it? Our last commentary was for Week 50, 2018 and we posted dry bulk and tanker charts through the holiday period, watching as the black marks began to pile up. Our friend Jerome Sorrel summed it up well on the DryBulkPelagos blog – “the sound of the deflating shipping market.
Let’s poke around and see what we can sort out from all this shipping nonsense…

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HANDYSIZE

For Week 2/2019 the Handysize Index gapped down in even heavier fashion than previous weeks, plunging to
a 524 fix on a near-40-point drop.
In our Week 50/2018 commentary we discussed that the Handies might be at a crossroads, with some pessimism that a drop to the 500-525 zone might be in the works.

The lagging, bearish MACD entered negative-value territory as the RSI approached bottoming values at 23.35.

With these values and the index hard up against our 500-525 support ideas, some hope of arresting the plunge may be there. However, it will be hard to visualize in the face of such a headlong dive in the index.

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SUPRAMAX

In Week 2/2019 the Supramax Index went off the edge hand-in-hand with the Handies. The index gapped down from Week 1’s 946 to a 933 open for Week 2. A further 91-point drop on the week brought the Supras down to an 842 fix.

In our previous comments we noted some possible attraction in the 960-975 area, but that any weakness might result in a downward run to 800-850 territory. Week 2’s action puts the index squarely in this lower zone with a well-bottomed RSI at 9.82.

Strengthened negative values were seen for the heavily-lagging, bearish MACD. While these indicators might suggest it may be time for a rest, the 800-850 zone will require monitoring for any further weakness in this heavy down-move.

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PANAMAX

Week 2 / 2019’s Panamax Index took a page from the Supras and Handies, plunging over 160 points on a gap-down open to fix at 1137. We had previously opined that there might be some upside resistance around 1575-1600, however the index didn’t make any forays above 1500 before taking a dive.

Going back to Week 43/2018, as the index declined the Panamaxes gained only fitful support for the remainder of 2018. This push down through our hoped-for support in the low 1400s has put the RSI at a bottom-region value of 19.74.

Gaining some bearish strength with the plunge, the MACD pushed harder into negative values. This may indicate some braking action on the Panamaxes’ downhill run, but nothing is visible in actual index action as yet.

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CAPESIZE

Being the odd man out in dry bulk for Week 2 / 2019, the Capesize Index showed some very sedate action. Closing at a 1966 fix, it gave some credence to our Week 50 / 2018 ideas, i.e. that there wasn’t the strength to stay above our low-2000s resistance zone.

The Week 2 candlestick shows a hint of index weakness, with the noticeable upper wick. The RSI maintained some above-neutral strength at 49.57, while the MACD rose slightly to park itself on top of the signal line, perhaps hinting at a little bullish tendency.

Bumping along under that low-2000s resistance zone,
the Capes have enjoyed a little spell in limbo over the holiday period. Our low-side support thoughts are around the 1050-1000 zone, as we suspiciously eye this rare calm in the Capes.

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Clean Plunge / Dirty Plunge: Baltic Tanker Indices – Week 2 2019

Welcome to 2019. Well, a week or two certainly makes a difference, doesn’t it? Our last commentary was for Week 50, 2018 and we posted dry bulk and tanker charts through the holiday period, watching as the black marks began to pile up. Our friend Jerome Sorrel summed it up well on the DryBulkPelagos blog – “the sound of the deflating shipping market.

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CLEAN TANKERS

For Week 2 of 2019, our previous comments on peakyness in the Clean Tanker index might have borne some fruit. Once upon a time, back in 2018/Week 48 we expressed concerns about how peaky the Clean Tankers might be. Naturally, right after that the index surged upwards, just popping through the 900 mark.
Running through Week 51 of 2018 however, the index took a pointed downturn, not pausing until it poked a little through our possible support thoughts around 725-750 to close at 667.
Of course, the index up-surge made us look at support closer to the low 800s, but ’twas not to be.

Perched around the mid-to-upper 600s, the chart gives us a small upper candlestick wick and thoughts of further down-moves, although it’s possible that our previous 725-750 support zone is exerting a little influence. The RSI didn’t fall that far in the downswing, staying at off-peak but relatively high values at 58.49. The MACD headed towards a bearish signal-line crossing but has a way to go yet.

Let’s take a breath and see if the index is indeed taking a rest, and we’ll continue watching the low 700s for further moderating influence.

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DIRTY TANKERS

In Week 2 the Dirty Tanker Index continued to tumble, bouncing off our previous 1220-1250 upside resistance ideas, which we mentioned back as far as 2018/Week 45.
As we eyed our previous support thoughts around 900-925, the index weakened its plunge a little and fixed just above that zone at 929.

The MACD cleanly crossed the signal line into bearish territory, while the RSI still hinted at some remaining index strength as it declined gently to 57.72.

It remains to be seen whether the index will take a solid poke at the 900-925 zone, or if the recentheavy weakness is ready for some consolidation.

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More Tanker Index strength. Baltic Tanker Indices – Week 50 commentary.

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As we head to the Christmas break, we at Superior Maritime would like to extend our very best wishes for this festive season to you and yours, no matter which holiday you celebrate. We’ll see you in 2019.

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CLEAN TANKERS

Taking another pop upwards for Week 50, the Clean Tanker Index showed a little less strength than previous surges. Retreating a little from a high of 919, the index left us a small upper wick on the candlestick chart.

There may be a possibility of some consolidation for the recent surge, with the peakish RSI at 88.87. Also, the MACD in high positive values may be hinting at an upcoming rest.

With our upside resistance thoughts in the 1000 range, well above our previous support ideas in the 700-725 area, we are
now watching for possible support building in the mid-to=low 800s.

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DIRTY TANKERS

For Week 50, the Dirty Tanker Index continued to rise. Gapping up and ending the week at 1223, the index pushed squarely into our 1200-1250 upside resistance ideas from Week 45.

The RSI also crept upwards to 87.76, continuing its peakish behaviour as the lagging MACD gained some bullish strength with the move.

All this strength in the index suggests a run at the 1200-1225 resistance may be in the works, however the index is approaching levels not seen since early 2014. Let’s see if the index is working up to a consolidation point, or if the peakish signs gather in strength.

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Handies and Panamaxes pause, Supras and Capes gain (a little). Baltic Dry Indices – Week 49 technical commentary.

HANDYSIZE

The Handysize Index took a rest in Week 49, halting its downtrend just above our 615-620 support ideas from a month ago. Barely visible on the chart, the index closed at 625, down a whole single point on the week.

The RSI continued its downtrend to 69.33, still not far off peakishness. The MACD faded to park itself squarely on the signal line, just on the edge of bearishness.

Perhaps we’re at a small crossroads for the Handies, and it remains to be seen if some support consolidates itself. A gloomy resolution could give us 500-550 as our next downside support. For now however, there may be some inclination to retain some buoyancy in the 600-650 zone.

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SUPRAMAX

For Week 49 a glimmer of hope was seen in the Supramax Index, as it maintained a modest climb to 953 at the Friday fix. Our 960-975 support thoughts from back in Week 44 may be influencing the index at this point.

The RSI continued to wander into bottoming territory
at 23.75, and the lagging, negatively-valued MACD kept weakening in its bearish path.

As these patterns continue to work out, perhaps we’re seeing possible consolidation above our next downside support
target in the 900 region. Any recovery at these levels could see some resistance around the 1000-1150 area.

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PANAMAX

The Panamax Index squeezed into a tight range of five points for Week 49, displaying some indecision after the upward boost of Week 48. The index closed as it opened at 1469.

The RSI hovered around neutrality at 43.56 and the lagging MACD stayed weakly bearish, neither giving up much in the way of directional clues.

This slight fizzle might hint at some consolidation above our low-1400s support thoughts from Week 45, but we’re keeping an eye on the 1350-1375 zone in case of more weakness.

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CAPESIZE

The Capesize Index took a 559-point surge upwards in Week 49, in a range which completely enveloped that of the ominous-looking Week 48 candlestick.

The action nudged the RSI up into neutral territory and made the MACD bend a little further towards the signal line and bullishness, hinting at the possibility of more index strength.

So far our consolidation ideas in the Capes have been borne out a little. However, the index has now bumped up against our low-2000s resistance ideas for two consecutive weeks. It will be worth watching to see if the index manages to push upwards through this zone.

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